Lindenwood Lions vs Omaha Mavericks basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:45 PM ET · Baxter Arena, Omaha, NE
Non-conferenceBaxter Arena, Omaha, NE
Lindenwood
2-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #288
@
Omaha
2-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #305
Live
73.479.1
Projected score
LIN win 31%OMA win 69%
MarketClose
Spread
OMA −4.0
open OMA −4.0
Total
153.5
open 153.0
Our line
OMA −5.6
Our total
152.5
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:41 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Omaharated 8.3 below average
−8.3
Lindenwoodrated 10.6 below average
+10.6
Home court
+3.4
Our line
OMA −5.6
◂ Lindenwood sideOmaha side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Omahalower-scoring games
−0.1
Lindenwoodhigher-scoring games
+1.3
Our line
152.5
Axis starts at 151 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Omaha.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 74.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Lindenwood is the faster team (75.1, #58 of 365) and Omaha the slower (72.1, #125). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
74.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
153.5
Market close · open 153.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
74.6#24
Lindenwood
70.5#187
Omaha
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
OMA −5.6
Four factors −2.0 · not in these stats +7.6
From the four factors
Omaha has the ball−0.7
Lindenwood has the ball+1.3
Omaha has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 41.7% #325 · LIN allows 57.4% #309−1.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.7% #214 · LIN forces 16.6% #219 · ~13 turnovers+0.6
✓Wins second chancesOR% 26.7% #264 · LIN allows 40.8% #333+0.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 21.4% #349 · LIN allows 48.4% #306 · FT 66.7% #246−0.3
Lindenwood has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 41.0% #331 · OMA allows 66.2% #360+2.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 32.8% #233 · OMA allows 30.0% #95 · FT 47.5% #362−2.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 34.9% #124 · OMA allows 32.8% #211+1.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.3% #347 · OMA forces 13.2% #328 · ~14 turnovers−0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootLindenwoodoffense vsOmahadefense
Share of shots by zone
Lindenwood shoots
32.5
9.1
20.8
37.7
Omaha allows
41.7
11.9
7.1
39.3
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.0%#96 | 74.3%#345 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 14.3%#334 | 30.0%#110 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#44 | 66.7%#350 | 36.0% |
| Three | 19.5%#360 | 42.9%#346 | 32.4% |
Omahaoffense vsLindenwooddefense
Share of shots by zone
Omaha shoots
28.2
9.0
12.8
50.0
Lindenwood allows
40.7
4.9
9.9
44.4
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 50.0%#288 | 72.7%#340 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 28.6%#239 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.0%#237 | 25.0%#65 | 36.0% |
| Three | 27.8%#269 | 38.9%#313 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineLindenwood
−11.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#338 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#124
Def reb %
59.2%
#333
Turnover %
25.3%
#347
Forced TO %
16.6%
#219
FT rate
32.8%
#233
FT allowed
48.4%
#306
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.1
Defensive rebounding−3.0
Ball security−5.0
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed−2.9
Omaha
−7.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#296 of 365
Off reb %
26.7%
#264
Def reb %
67.2%
#211
Turnover %
18.7%
#214
Forced TO %
13.2%
#328
FT rate
21.4%
#349
FT allowed
30.0%
#95
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−3.4
Foul shots drawn−4.1
Foul shots allowed+1.9
Omaha has more extra scoring chances per game: −7.9 (#296 of 365) to Lindenwood’s −11.9 (#338).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notLindenwood2026-27 numbers · last game: Nebraska, Nov 11
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-4 | 25.3 | 31 | — | Started last | 7.3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 59.5% | 33.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 18.5% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 4-2 | 21.0 | 32 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 59.1% | 33.3% | 0.8 | 55.6% | 29.7% | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 19.0 | 6 | — | Bench | 7.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 55.6% | 30.0% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 24.0% | |
| 14 | G | So | 6'3" | 4-3 | 18.5 | 14 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 41.9% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 27.5% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 4-3 | 18.5 | 25 | — | Bench | 12.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 66.2% | 55.0% | 5.0 | 66.7% | 30.4% | |
| 42 | F | Fr | 6'5" | 4-1 | 17.5 | 13 | — | Bench | 7.8 | 5.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 79.4% | 100.0% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 17.5% | |
| 21 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 4-4 | 16.3 | 25 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 46.2% | 14.2% | |
| 41 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 4-0 | 13.8 | 7 | — | Bench | 3.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 45.5% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 62.5% | 16.5% | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'11" | 3-2 | 18.0 | 21 | — | Started last | 13.3 | 6.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 63.3% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 36.2% | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 15.0 | 14 | — | Bench | 10.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 48.3% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 39.4% | |
| 10 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 20.0 | 15 | — | Bench | 8.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 40.6% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 27.3% | 32.7% | |
| 23 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 12.3 | — | — | Missed last | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 18.8% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 4-0 | 3.5 | — | — | Active | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 22.9% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 3.3 | — | — | Active | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 20.7% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesLindenwood
Against the spread
Season
0-1-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1-1
Last 10
0-1-1
avg cover −4.8
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
0-0
Road
2-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +1.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | #25Nebraska | A | L 60–94 | +34.0 | P0.0 | 153.0 | O154 | 80.3 | 125.8 | 74.7 |
| Nov 7 | East West Phantoms | H | W 115–44 | — | — | — | — | 158.0 | 60.4 | 72.8 |
| Nov 5 | Central Bible Saints | H | W 120–46 | — | — | — | — | 155.9 | 59.8 | 77.0 |
| Nov 2 | TCU | A | L 59–98 | +29.5 | L−9.5 | 154.5 | O157 | 78.1 | 129.8 | 75.5 |
| Mar 5 | SE Missouri | N | L 66–68 | +3.0 | W+1.0 | 149.0 | U134 | 97.2 | 100.1 | 67.9 |
| Mar 4 | Little Rock | N | W 72–62 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 148.5 | U134 | 93.0 | 80.1 | 77.4 |
| Feb 28 | W Illinois | A | W 91–69 | −11.5 | W+10.5 | 150.5 | O160 | 129.0 | 97.8 | 70.5 |
| Feb 26 | E Illinois | H | L 67–71 | −7.5 | L−11.5 | 144.0 | U138 | 96.9 | 102.7 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Tennessee Tech | A | L 57–72 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 152.0 | U129 | 86.1 | 108.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 19 | Tennessee St | A | L 80–89 | +3.5 | L−5.5 | 159.0 | O169 | 100.9 | 112.2 | 79.3 |
Omaha
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.5
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +3.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | York (NE) Panthers | H | W 78–66 | — | — | — | — | 100.6 | 85.1 | 77.6 |
| Nov 7 | Utah State | A | L 56–90 | +29.0 | L−5.0 | 153.5 | U146 | 76.9 | 123.6 | 72.8 |
| Nov 6 | #25BYU | A | L 67–108 | +33.0 | L−8.0 | 161.5 | O175 | 93.9 | 151.3 | 71.4 |
| Nov 2 | Mid America Christian Evangels | H | W 73–65 | — | — | — | — | 107.9 | 96.1 | 67.6 |
| Mar 7 | N Dakota St | N | L 50–74 | +8.0 | L−16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 73.8 | 109.2 | 67.8 |
| Mar 6 | South Dakota | N | W 76–62 | −2.0 | W+12.0 | 151.5 | U138 | 117.4 | 95.8 | 64.7 |
| Feb 28 | St Thomas | A | L 53–68 | +11.5 | L−3.5 | 159.5 | U121 | 81.3 | 104.3 | 65.2 |
| Feb 25 | South Dakota | A | L 72–89 | −1.5 | L−18.5 | 153.5 | O161 | 98.3 | 121.5 | 73.3 |
| Feb 18 | Oral Roberts | H | W 80–71 | −6.5 | W+2.5 | 152.0 | U151 | 121.2 | 107.6 | 66.0 |
| Feb 15 | Denver | H | W 83–76 | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 160.5 | U159 | 125.7 | 115.1 | 66.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeLindenwoodOmaha
Efficiency
99.0
101.5
107.9
112.0
74.6
70.5
18.1
18.8
Shooting
41.0%
41.7%
46.9%
41.7%
19.5%
27.8%
47.5%
66.7%
32.8%
21.4%
Ball control & glass
25.3%
18.7%
16.6%
13.2%
34.9%
26.7%
40.8%
32.8%
16.6%
9.7%
9.9%
18.1%
Style
33.6%
42.9%
55.5%
35.8%
16.0%
3.3%
41.3%
60.0%
51.1%
36.8%
Roster
2.68
3.06
6'5.1"
6'5.3"
0.0%
19.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputLindenwood
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Anias Futrell 30.6 mpg, 16.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mekhi Cooper 29.9 mpg, 6.4 ppg · transferred to Louisiana
- Dontrez Williams 28.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to UNLV
- Jadis Jones 27.9 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to USC
- Milos Nenadic 27.5 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Clayton Jackson 25.0 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Xavier Spencer from UMass Lowell · 33.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Noah Taitz from Utah Valley · 17.3 mpg, 4.4 ppg last season
- Matar Diop from Stetson · 12.0 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
- Makhan Diouf from Fresno St · 2.7 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Malek Archie from Tarleton St · 0.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Miles Elliott no D1 minutes last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Omaha
Returning minutes: 19.8%Returning production: 19.4%
Lost
- Lance Waddles 29.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · transferred to Campbell
- Tony Osburn 28.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ja'Sean Glover 24.3 mpg, 10.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Paul Djobet 18.1 mpg, 10.6 ppg · transferred to Texas St
- Kamryn Thomas 17.6 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christian Richardson 12.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg · transferred to Alcorn St
Added
- Chris Dockery from Kansas City · 20.7 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
- Cahmai Crosby from North Texas · 9.4 mpg, 2.7 ppg last season
- Justin Bolis from Nebraska · 0.7 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
- Deke Thompson from Texas St · 0.3 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Ethan Sheats no D1 minutes last season
- Heri Bukinga no D1 minutes last season
Returns 20% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -3.5→-4.5-110 | 153.5o-112 u-108 | -198 | +164 |
| FanDuel | -3.5→-4.5-114 | 152.5→153.5o-110 u-110 | -205 | +168 |
| BetMGM | -4.5-110 | 153.5o-110 u-110 | -200 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -5.5→-4.5-110 | 153.5o-110 u-113 | -215 | +170 |
| Caesars | -3.5→-4.5-110 | 153.5o-110 u-110 | -195 | +162 |
| Fanatics | -4→-4.5-110 | 153→153.5o-110 u-110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetOnline | -4-108 | 153→152o-125 u+105 | -185 | +161 |
| Bovada | -4.5-105 | 154.5→153.5o-110 u-110 | -195 | +165 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5→-4.5+100 | 153.5o-110 u-110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock | -4.5-110 | 154.5→153.5o-110 u-110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -3.5-117 | 152.5o-113 u+108 | -178 | +170 |
| Polymarket | -4.5+100 | 153.5o-104 u-104 | -186 | +170 |
| Novig | -3.5→-4.5+100 | 152.5→153.5o+100 u-104 | -178 | +174 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
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- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.