Troy Trojans vs NC State Wolfpack basketball final score
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Non-conferenceACC NetworkLenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Troy
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #201
@
NC State
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #35
Final
6281
Final score
Projected 68.3 – 89.2
TROY win 4%NCSU win 96%
MarketClose
Spread
NCSU −22.5
open NCSU −22.5
Total
148.5
open 148.0
Our line
NCSU −20.9
Our total
157.6
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 6:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
NC Staterated 13.8 above average
+13.8
Troyrated 3.7 below average
+3.7
Home court
+3.4
Our line
NCSU −20.9
◂ Troy sideNC State side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
NC Statehigher-scoring games
+6.4
Troylower-scoring games
−0.2
Our line
157.6
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward NC State.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, NC State is the faster team (67.5, #278 of 365) and Troy the slower (67.1, #295). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
68.2
per team, 40 min
Market total
148.5
Market close · open 148.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.6#325
Troy
71.0#146
NC State
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
NCSU −20.9
Four factors 15.5Not in these stats 5.4
From the four factors
NC State has the ball+8.5
Troy has the ball−7.0
NC State has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 40.0% #39 · TROY allows 39.8% #326+4.2
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.3% #46 · TROY allows 46.2% #83+2.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.8% #142 · TROY forces 15.3% #273 · ~11 turnovers+2.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 25.1% #319 · TROY allows 34.0% #147 · FT 76.6% #65−0.3
Troy has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 46.6% #260 · NCSU allows 46.3% #86−4.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 24.6% #301 · NCSU allows 27.2% #98−2.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.7% #99 · NCSU forces 18.3% #158 · ~11 turnovers+1.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.4% #191 · NCSU allows 26.4% #54 · FT 62.9% #308−1.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootTroyoffense vsNC Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Troy shoots
44.0
2.5
7.5
45.9
NC State allows
35.6
9.8
14.4
40.2
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.7%#220 | 42.6%#18 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#268 | 46.2%#244 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#317 | 42.1%#237 | 36.0% |
| Three | 29.1%#250 | 27.1%#75 | 32.4% |
NC Stateoffense vsTroydefense
Share of shots by zone
NC State shoots
31.7
11.7
8.3
48.3
Troy allows
39.6
2.7
10.7
47.1
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.9%#135 | 59.5%#194 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 52.9%#75 | 40.0%#187 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#278 | 50.0%#297 | 36.0% |
| Three | 40.0%#39 | 23.9%#25 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineTroy
−4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#261 of 365
Off reb %
24.6%
#301
Def reb %
60.2%
#326
Turnover %
15.7%
#99
Forced TO %
15.3%
#273
FT rate
35.4%
#191
FT allowed
34.0%
#147
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.3
Defensive rebounding−2.7
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers−2.0
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed+0.9
NC State
+5.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#104 of 365
Off reb %
40.0%
#39
Def reb %
72.8%
#98
Turnover %
16.8%
#142
Forced TO %
18.3%
#158
FT rate
25.1%
#319
FT allowed
26.4%
#54
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.8
Defensive rebounding+1.5
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−3.2
Foul shots allowed+2.9
NC State has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.2 (#104 of 365) to Troy’s −4.8 (#261).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notTroy2026-27 numbers · last game: LMU, Nov 10
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 33.0 | 35 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 46.8% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 70.0% | 24.7% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 31.0 | 34 | — | Started last | 14.7 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 48.7% | 20.0% | 5.0 | 63.6% | 31.3% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 24.7 | 29 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 52.6% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 50.0% | 26.6% | |
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 24.3 | 30 | — | Bench | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 63.9% | 43.8% | 5.3 | 100.0% | 15.7% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 14 | — | Started last | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 17.6% | 5.7 | 66.7% | 16.5% | |
| 11 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-2 | 22.3 | 20 | — | Started last | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 35.7% | 14.3% | 2.3 | 66.7% | 23.3% | |
| 7 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 3-2 | 17.0 | 13 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 36.4% | — | 0.0 | 42.9% | 22.4% | |
| 0 | F | Sr | 6'5" | 3-1 | 13.0 | 11 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 38.9% | 50.0% | 0.7 | — | 18.2% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 4 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 13.4% | |
| 6 | G | So | 6'4" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.3% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 15.3% | |
| 27 | C | Fr | 6'8" | 1-1 | 10.0 | 9 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 18.7% | |
| 25 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 4.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 21.8% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 2.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 11.8% |
Into the starting lineup: Afonso Pacheco.Out of the starting lineup: Mobi Ikegwuruka.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameTroy
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −2.7
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-2
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −8.3
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | LMU | H | W 74–69 OT | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 145.0 | U143 | 105.0 | 97.9 | 70.5 |
| Nov 6 | Florida St | A | L 68–91 | +22.5 | L−0.5 | 158.5 | O159 | 96.1 | 128.6 | 70.8 |
| Nov 2 | UMass | H | L 60–71 | −3.0 | L−14.0 | 154.5 | U131 | 87.7 | 103.8 | 68.4 |
| Mar 19 | #4Nebraska | N | L 47–76 | +13.0 | L−16.0 | 139.5 | U123 | 77.4 | 125.1 | 60.8 |
| Mar 9 | GA Southern | N | W 77–61 | −5.0 | W+11.0 | 152.5 | U138 | 122.0 | 96.7 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | Southern Miss | N | W 78–70 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 143.0 | O148 | 109.4 | 98.2 | 71.3 |
| Feb 27 | UL Monroe | H | W 80–65 | −18.0 | L−3.0 | 153.5 | U145 | 128.4 | 104.3 | 62.3 |
| Feb 24 | Louisiana | H | W 78–59 | −11.0 | W+8.0 | 134.5 | O137 | 136.6 | 103.3 | 57.1 |
| Feb 21 | South Alabama | A | L 54–65 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 143.0 | U119 | 92.2 | 111.0 | 58.5 |
| Feb 18 | UL Monroe | A | W 77–76 | −17.0 | L−16.0 | 155.5 | U153 | 109.0 | 107.6 | 70.6 |
NC State
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover +2.7
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −7.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Presbyterian | H | W 94–60 | −18.5 | W+15.5 | 151.5 | O154 | 133.9 | 85.5 | 70.2 |
| Nov 6 | ETSU | H | W 77–63 | −17.5 | L−3.5 | 152.0 | U140 | 122.8 | 100.4 | 62.7 |
| Nov 2 | Campbell | H | W 83–64 | −23.0 | L−4.0 | 158.5 | U147 | 119.1 | 91.9 | 69.7 |
| Mar 17 | #11Texas | N | L 66–68 | −1.0 | L−3.0 | 157.5 | U134 | 97.5 | 100.5 | 67.7 |
| Mar 12 | #10Virginia | N | L 74–81 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 152.0 | O155 | 108.0 | 118.2 | 68.5 |
| Mar 11 | Pitt | N | W 98–88 | −9.0 | W+1.0 | 144.5 | O186 | 148.8 | 133.6 | 65.8 |
| Mar 7 | Stanford | H | L 84–85 | −9.0 | L−10.0 | 152.5 | O169 | 122.3 | 123.7 | 68.7 |
| Mar 2 | #1Duke | H | L 64–93 | +9.0 | L−20.0 | 150.5 | O157 | 99.3 | 144.3 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Notre Dame | A | L 90–96 OT | −6.5 | L−12.5 | 155.0 | O186 | 126.1 | 134.5 | 71.4 |
| Feb 24 | #11Virginia | A | L 61–90 | +6.0 | L−23.0 | 152.0 | U151 | 86.7 | 128.0 | 70.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTroyNC State
Efficiency
103.8
116.3
106.8
100.6
67.6
71.0
2.6
-3.5
Shooting
46.6%
58.3%
49.0%
56.9%
29.1%
40.0%
62.9%
76.6%
35.4%
25.1%
Ball control & glass
15.7%
16.8%
15.3%
18.3%
24.6%
40.0%
39.8%
27.2%
8.1%
9.4%
15.6%
10.8%
Style
45.1%
45.5%
43.6%
44.1%
10.9%
15.4%
47.1%
60.9%
41.6%
36.2%
Roster
3.29
3.18
6'4.9"
6'6"
8.9%
28.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTroy
Returning minutes: 9.0%Returning production: 7.0%
Lost
- Thomas Dowd 36.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Cooper Campbell 33.8 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Liberty
- Victor Valdes 28.4 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Georgia Tech
- Cobi Campbell 27.1 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Liberty
- Theo Seng 23.5 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jerrell Bellamy 16.6 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Donovan Oday from N Kentucky · 29.0 mpg, 18.6 ppg last season
- Jacoi Hutchinson from Longwood · 27.5 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Robert Davis Jr. from Old Dominion · 23.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Caden Diggs from UMBC · 22.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Sam Walters from SMU · 6.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Mobi Ikegwuruka from Kansas St · 4.0 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
Returns 9% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
NC State
Returning minutes: 28.1%Returning production: 32.8%
Lost
- Darrion Williams 29.2 mpg, 13.6 ppg · transferred to Texas Tech
- Quadir Copeland 28.9 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tre Holloman 24.0 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
- Matt Able 21.7 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to North Carolina
- Terrance Arceneaux 14.0 mpg, 3.4 ppg · transferred to G Washington
- Musa Sagnia 12.4 mpg, 2.3 ppg · transferred to Virginia Tech
Added
- Preston Edmead from Hofstra · 33.9 mpg, 16.1 ppg last season
- Christian Hammond from Santa Clara · 29.5 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
- Kyle Evans from UC Irvine · 28.6 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Eemeli Yalaho from Washington St · 28.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg last season
- Darius Adams from Maryland · 25.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- R.J. Keene II from Boise St · 21.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -22.5-112 | 147.5→148.5o-112 u-108 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -22.5-110 | 148.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2400 |
| BetMGM | -22.5-110 | 147.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | +1900 |
| BetRivers | -22.5-110 | 148.5o-109 u-114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -22.5-110 | 147.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -22.5-110 | 148→148.5o-105 u-115 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline | -22.5→-22-110 | 147.5→149o-105 u-115 | — | +1612 |
| Bovada | -22.5-110 | 148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -22.5-105 | 147.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2500 |
| Hard Rock | -22.5-110 | 148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -22.5+100 | 148.5o-104 u+100 | -3604 | +2757 |
| Novig | -22.5→— | 147.5→148.5o-111 u+104 | -2930 | +2841 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
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- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
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- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
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- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
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- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.