Chicago State Cougars vs San Diego Toreros basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:30 PM ET · Jenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
Non-conferenceESPN+Jenny Craig Pavilion, San Diego, CA
Chicago St
2-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #321
@
San Diego
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #222
Live
63.679.9
Projected score
CHST win 8%USD win 92%
MarketClose
Spread
USD −16.5
open USD −14.0
Total
140.5
open 148.0
Our line
USD −16.3
Our total
143.4
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
San Diegorated 2.6 below average
−2.6
Chicago Strated 15.5 below average
+15.5
Home court
+3.4
Our line
USD −16.3
◂ Chicago St sideSan Diego side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
San Diegolower-scoring games
−0.9
Chicago Stlower-scoring games
−6.9
Our line
143.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward San Diego.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, San Diego is the faster team (71.6, #147 of 365) and Chicago St the slower (69.2, #230). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.5
per team, 40 min
Market total
140.5
Market close · open 148.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.1#265
Chicago St
70.8#167
San Diego
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
USD −16.3
Four factors 1.9Not in these stats 14.4
From the four factors
San Diego has the ball+3.7
Chicago St has the ball+1.8
San Diego has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.4% #111 · CHST allows 34.6% #251+1.8
✓Gets to the lineFTR 41.7% #118 · CHST allows 46.3% #293 · FT 81.8% #19+1.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 47.7% #238 · CHST allows 54.4% #266+0.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.8% #103 · CHST forces 20.2% #96 · ~13 turnovers+0.1
Chicago St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 47.0% #250 · USD allows 62.6% #354+4.3
✗Coughs it upTO% 22.8% #323 · USD forces 21.7% #66 · ~16 turnovers−4.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 40.0% #141 · USD allows 59.2% #349 · FT 75.0% #92+1.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.3% #114 · USD allows 26.4% #76+0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootChicago Stoffense vsSan Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Chicago St shoots
34.5
5.1
19.8
40.7
San Diego allows
37.9
1.9
5.8
54.4
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 47.5%#310 | 71.8%#337 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 55.6%#61 | 0.0%#1 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.7%#86 | 33.3%#143 | 36.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#199 | 41.1%#332 | 32.4% |
San Diegooffense vsChicago Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
San Diego shoots
53.0
5.3
3.8
37.9
Chicago St allows
39.9
6.7
9.6
43.8
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 41.4%#347 | 60.6%#213 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 57.1%#52 | 33.3%#131 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#350 | 35.3%#174 | 36.0% |
| Three | 40.0%#39 | 35.7%#252 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineChicago St
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#231 of 365
Off reb %
35.3%
#114
Def reb %
65.4%
#251
Turnover %
22.8%
#323
Forced TO %
20.2%
#96
FT rate
40.0%
#141
FT allowed
46.3%
#293
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security−3.2
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+0.7
Foul shots allowed−2.3
San Diego
+2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#129 of 365
Off reb %
35.4%
#111
Def reb %
73.6%
#76
Turnover %
15.8%
#103
Forced TO %
21.7%
#66
FT rate
41.7%
#118
FT allowed
59.2%
#349
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+2.6
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−5.7
San Diego has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.9 (#129 of 365) to Chicago St’s −3.0 (#231).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notChicago St2026-27 numbers · last game: CA Baptist, Nov 11
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-3 | 27.5 | 26 | — | Bench | 22.0 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 51.5% | 39.4% | 8.3 | 75.0% | 45.8% | |
| 23 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 4-3 | 27.0 | 27 | — | Bench | 10.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 50.0% | 36.4% | 2.8 | 83.3% | 25.0% | |
| 0 | F | Sr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 24.0 | 28 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 54.5% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 9.7% | |
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 4-1 | 22.3 | 23 | — | Started last | 5.3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 63.6% | 22.9% | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'0" | 4-4 | 21.5 | 21 | — | Started last | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 11.1% | 0.0% | 0.8 | 69.2% | 13.5% | |
| 10 | C | Sr | 6'11" | 4-2 | 13.3 | 21 | — | Started last | 1.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 42.9% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 8.8% | |
| 2 | F | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 17.3 | 20 | — | Bench | 9.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 57.9% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 29.4% | |
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 4-1 | 12.0 | 8 | — | Started last | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 63.6% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.9% | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 4-3 | 11.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 50.0% | 27.3% | 2.8 | 100.0% | 21.7% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-1 | 13.7 | 17 | — | Started last | 6.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 43.3% | 27.3% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 30.2% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 0 | — | Missed last 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 10.7% | |
| 15 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 12.5 | — | — | Missed last | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 15.2% | |
| 18 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Active | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 35.1% | |
| 20 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Out L3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 28.3% | |
| 25 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 28.1% |
Into the starting lineup: Malik Olafioye.Into the starting lineup: Bryan Akanmu.Into the starting lineup: Armari Carraway.Out of the starting lineup: Mike Price.Out of the starting lineup: Will Lovings-Watts.Out of the starting lineup: Davius Loury.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesChicago St
Against the spread
Season
2-2
Home
0-1
Road
2-1
Last 10
2-2
avg cover +6.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
3-1
Home
1-0
Road
2-1
Last 10
3-1
avg vs total +1.4
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | CA Baptist | A | W 81–62 | +11.5 | W+30.5 | 137.0 | O143 | 134.9 | 103.2 | 60.0 |
| Nov 9 | SC State | H | L 67–82 | −2.0 | L−17.0 | 144.5 | O149 | 93.7 | 114.7 | 71.5 |
| Nov 5 | Incarnate Word | A | W 66–54 | +8.5 | W+20.5 | 143.5 | U120 | 87.6 | 71.7 | 75.3 |
| Nov 2 | #7Texas | A | L 59–109 | +40.0 | L−10.0 | 149.5 | O168 | 84.2 | 155.6 | 70.1 |
| Mar 4 | Long Island | A | L 75–79 | +11.0 | W+7.0 | 138.0 | O154 | 122.2 | 128.7 | 61.4 |
| Feb 28 | Wagner | A | L 61–80 | +5.0 | L−14.0 | 135.5 | O141 | 88.6 | 116.2 | 68.9 |
| Feb 26 | Long Island | A | L 56–73 | +11.5 | L−5.5 | 140.0 | U129 | 85.8 | 111.9 | 65.3 |
| Feb 21 | C Connecticut | H | W 70–51 | +3.0 | W+22.0 | 138.5 | U121 | 113.1 | 82.4 | 61.9 |
| Feb 19 | FDU | H | L 59–60 | +2.0 | W+1.0 | 132.0 | U119 | 111.6 | 113.5 | 52.9 |
| Feb 14 | Le Moyne | A | L 63–81 | +7.0 | L−11.0 | 146.0 | U144 | 91.5 | 117.6 | 68.9 |
San Diego
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +22.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Colorado | A | L 75–83 | +12.5 | W+4.5 | 150.5 | O158 | 103.4 | 114.4 | 72.5 |
| Nov 6 | Tarleton St | H | W 96–90 OT | −7.5 | L−1.5 | 148.0 | O186 | 120.7 | 113.2 | 79.5 |
| Nov 2 | Biola Eagles | H | W 79–62 | — | — | — | — | 112.7 | 88.4 | 70.1 |
| Mar 6 | Seattle U | N | L 56–58 | +8.0 | W+6.0 | 139.0 | U114 | 91.6 | 94.9 | 61.1 |
| Mar 5 | LMU | N | W 66–62 | +5.5 | W+9.5 | 145.5 | U128 | 107.6 | 101.1 | 61.3 |
| Feb 28 | Portland | A | L 74–87 | +3.5 | L−9.5 | 148.5 | O161 | 107.0 | 125.8 | 69.2 |
| Feb 25 | Oregon St | A | L 82–92 OT | +6.5 | L−3.5 | 144.0 | O174 | 110.3 | 123.8 | 74.3 |
| Feb 21 | LMU | H | L 65–77 | +2.5 | L−9.5 | 149.5 | U142 | 104.7 | 124.0 | 62.1 |
| Feb 15 | San Francisco | H | L 79–92 | +5.0 | L−8.0 | 148.0 | O171 | 114.3 | 133.2 | 69.1 |
| Feb 11 | Portland | H | W 71–58 | −2.5 | W+10.5 | 151.5 | U129 | 111.4 | 91.0 | 63.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeChicago StSan Diego
Efficiency
100.1
106.2
112.0
110.4
69.1
70.8
-3.5
1.5
Shooting
47.0%
47.7%
46.8%
40.2%
31.6%
40.0%
75.0%
81.8%
40.0%
41.7%
Ball control & glass
22.8%
15.8%
20.2%
21.7%
35.3%
35.4%
34.6%
26.4%
12.3%
5.9%
12.8%
12.2%
Style
35.9%
37.9%
37.4%
38.6%
11.4%
11.7%
38.5%
56.6%
51.1%
40.6%
Roster
3.54
3.05
6'4.2"
6'5.7"
7.7%
0.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputChicago St
Returning minutes: 7.7%Returning production: 6.8%
Lost
- CJ Ray 31.1 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Marcus Tankersley 28.7 mpg, 12.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Doyel Cockrill III 21.3 mpg, 10.3 ppg · transferred to Nicholls
- Braelon Bush 21.0 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Corey Sands 16.3 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Stephen Byard 15.5 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Bryan Akanmu from Wagner · 20.3 mpg, 6.2 ppg last season
- Mike Price from Bakersfield · 17.6 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Davius Loury from CSU Northridge · 16.4 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Armari Carraway from Charleston So · 12.8 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
- Malik Olafioye from E Illinois · 10.0 mpg, 2.3 ppg last season
- Jaylen Pazon from VMI · 8.4 mpg, 4.2 ppg last season
Returns 8% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
San Diego
Returning minutes: 4.3%Returning production: 3.0%
Lost
- Toneari Lane 26.8 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Adrian McIntyre 24.0 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Juanse Gorosito 23.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Vuk Boskovic 20.3 mpg, 6.1 ppg · transferred to Bethune
- Ty-Laur Johnson 19.5 mpg, 10.2 ppg · transferred to Tennessee St
- Assane Diop 16.6 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to Kansas City
Added
- Marqui Worthy Jr. from UC Riverside · 35.0 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
- Davion Hill from Ball State · 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
- Terry McMorris from E Illinois · 26.1 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
- Dusty Stromer from Grand Canyon · 22.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg last season
- Antonio Munoz from Grambling · 21.0 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Jose Roberto Tanchyn from UMBC · 18.6 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
Returns 4% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -14.5→-16.5-115 | 147.5→141.5o-105 u-115 | -1800 | +1000 |
| FanDuel | -13.5→-16.5-110 | 148.5→140.5o-110 u-110 | -2500 | +1100 |
| BetMGM | -13.5→-16.5-115 | 148.5→140.5o-115 u-105 | -2000 | +1000 |
| BetRivers | -13.5→-16.5-114 | 146.5→142.5o-107 u-117 | -2500 | +900 |
| Fanatics | -14→-16.5-115 | 148→141.5o-110 u-110 | -2000 | +1100 |
| BetOnline | -13.5→-17-110 | 148→141.5o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -13.5→-16.5-115 | 147.5→140.5o-110 u-110 | -2200 | +1000 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5→-17.5-105 | 148.5→140.5o-115 u-105 | -2500 | +1100 |
| Hard Rock | -13.5→-16.5-110 | 147.5→142.5o-105 u-115 | -2500 | +900 |
| Kalshi | -14.5→-17.5+104 | 147.5→139.5o-113 u+108 | -1567 | +1150 |
| Polymarket | -14.5→-16.5-108 | 148.5→140.5o-108 u+104 | -1567 | +1329 |
| Novig | -16.5-104 | 145.5→— | -1233 | +1150 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.