Arizona Wildcats vs Auburn Tigers basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Neville Arena, Auburn, AL
Non-conferenceESPN2Neville Arena, Auburn, AL
12Arizona
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #14
@
Auburn
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #36
Live
81.576.0
Projected score
ARIZ win 68%AUB win 32%
MarketClose
Spread
ARIZ −2.5
open AUB −1.5
Total
158.5
open 157.5
Our line
ARIZ −5.5
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Auburnrated 15.4 above average
+15.4
Arizonarated 24.2 above average
−24.2
Home court
+3.4
Our line
ARIZ −5.5
◂ Arizona sideAuburn side ▸
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Auburn. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Arizona is the faster team (73.1, #95 of 365) and Auburn the slower (67.1, #294). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.4
per team, 40 min
Market total
158.5
Market close · open 157.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.4#74
Arizona
70.5#189
Auburn
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ARIZ −5.5
Four factors −6.0 · not in these stats +11.5
From the four factors
Auburn has the ball+6.6
Arizona has the ball+0.6
Auburn has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 44.6% #8 · ARIZ allows 29.4% #141+3.6
✓Shoots it welleFG% 54.0% #116 · ARIZ allows 50.3% #180+2.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.9% #72 · ARIZ forces 18.7% #144 · ~12 turnovers+1.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 40.3% #139 · ARIZ allows 29.8% #93 · FT 66.0% #261−0.5
Arizona has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 56.2% #83 · AUB allows 37.0% #9−3.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.7% #44 · AUB forces 18.6% #146 · ~12 turnovers+2.0
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.4% #112 · AUB allows 35.2% #265+2.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 41.9% #115 · AUB allows 28.5% #79 · FT 76.9% #59+0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot#12Arizonaoffense vsAuburndefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona shoots
43.7
8.6
9.9
37.7
Auburn allows
31.0
4.0
15.0
50.0
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.2%#35 | 45.2%#30 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#225 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 53.3%#37 | 26.7%#83 | 36.0% |
| Three | 27.5%#275 | 24.6%#33 | 32.4% |
Auburnoffense vs#12Arizonadefense
Share of shots by zone
Auburn shoots
43.4
9.1
11.1
36.4
Arizona allows
31.0
8.4
12.9
47.7
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.5%#142 | 58.3%#179 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#188 | 15.4%#28 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 18.2%#308 | 30.0%#112 | 36.0% |
| Three | 40.0%#39 | 38.0%#298 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line#12Arizona
+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#62 of 365
Off reb %
35.4%
#112
Def reb %
70.6%
#141
Turnover %
13.7%
#44
Forced TO %
18.7%
#144
FT rate
41.9%
#115
FT allowed
29.8%
#93
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.3
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+3.2
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn+1.2
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Auburn
+9.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#56 of 365
Off reb %
44.6%
#8
Def reb %
64.8%
#265
Turnover %
14.9%
#72
Forced TO %
18.6%
#146
FT rate
40.3%
#139
FT allowed
28.5%
#79
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security+2.3
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+0.8
Foul shots allowed+2.3
Auburn has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.1 (#56 of 365) to Arizona’s +9.0 (#62).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has not#12Arizona2026-27 numbers · last game: N Arizona, Nov 10
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-3 | 32.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 24.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 62.2% | 30.0% | 3.3 | 74.2% | 34.5% | |
| 7 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 32.0 | 36 | — | Started last | 13.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 51.5% | 31.8% | 7.3 | 100.0% | 23.9% | |
| 23 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-0 | 27.0 | 25 | — | Bench | 4.7 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 3.3 | 100.0% | 9.5% | |
| 13 | C | Sr | 7'2" | 3-3 | 26.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 18.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 73.1% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 80.0% | 30.0% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 25.7 | 26 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 52.9% | 9.1% | 3.7 | 88.9% | 32.6% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 17.3 | 16 | — | Bench | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 56.7% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 17.9% | |
| 35 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 8 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 14.5% | |
| 6 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 12.0 | 15 | — | Started last | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 36.4% | 28.6% | 2.3 | — | 19.7% | |
| 12 | F | Sr | 6'11" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 9 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 5.1% | |
| 30 | F | Sr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 7.5 | 0 | — | Bench | 0.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | 25.0% | 10.4% | |
| 22 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 18.2% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games#12Arizona
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −9.8
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
2-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg vs total +5.3
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | N Arizona | H | W 90–59 | −36.0 | L−5.0 | 156.0 | U149 | 140.1 | 91.9 | 64.2 |
| Nov 5 | Cal Poly | H | W 104–84 | −30.5 | L−10.5 | 174.5 | O188 | 127.5 | 103.0 | 81.5 |
| Nov 2 | #22UCLA | N | L 75–84 | −5.0 | L−14.0 | 149.5 | O159 | 102.0 | 114.2 | 73.6 |
| Apr 4 | #1Michigan | N | L 73–91 | −1.0 | L−19.0 | 157.5 | O164 | 93.6 | 116.6 | 78.0 |
| Mar 28 | #2Purdue | N | W 79–64 | −5.0 | W+10.0 | 152.5 | U143 | 121.0 | 98.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 26 | #4Arkansas | N | W 109–88 | −8.0 | W+13.0 | 165.5 | O197 | 136.4 | 110.1 | 79.9 |
| Mar 22 | #9Utah State | N | W 78–66 | −11.5 | W+0.5 | 154.0 | U144 | 121.2 | 102.5 | 64.4 |
| Mar 20 | #16Long Island | N | W 92–58 | −30.5 | W+3.5 | 148.0 | O150 | 130.1 | 82.0 | 70.7 |
| Mar 14 | #5Houston | N | W 79–74 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 138.5 | O153 | 120.2 | 112.6 | 65.7 |
| Mar 13 | #7Iowa State | N | W 82–80 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 144.5 | O162 | 123.9 | 120.8 | 66.2 |
Auburn
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.2
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −6.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | App State | H | W 75–53 | −23.0 | L−1.0 | 143.5 | U128 | 121.4 | 85.8 | 61.8 |
| Nov 4 | SE Louisiana | H | W 92–59 | −29.5 | W+3.5 | 149.0 | O151 | 127.0 | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Apr 5 | Tulsa | N | W 92–86 OT | −5.5 | W+0.5 | 159.5 | O178 | 112.5 | 105.2 | 81.8 |
| Apr 2 | Illinois St | N | W 88–66 | −8.0 | W+14.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 136.9 | 102.7 | 64.3 |
| Mar 25 | Nevada | H | W 75–69 | −8.0 | L−2.0 | 153.0 | U144 | 116.5 | 107.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 22 | Seattle U | H | W 91–85 | −14.0 | L−8.0 | 146.0 | O176 | 125.2 | 116.9 | 72.7 |
| Mar 17 | South Alabama | H | W 78–67 | −18.0 | L−7.0 | 153.0 | U145 | 121.6 | 104.4 | 64.2 |
| Mar 12 | #25Tennessee | N | L 62–72 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 145.0 | U134 | 97.1 | 112.8 | 63.9 |
| Mar 11 | Mississippi St | N | W 79–61 | −7.5 | W+10.5 | 159.0 | U140 | 110.8 | 85.6 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | #16Alabama | A | L 84–96 | +6.0 | L−6.0 | 175.0 | O180 | 118.0 | 134.9 | 71.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for home#12ArizonaAuburn
Efficiency
118.0
117.1
96.5
101.5
72.4
70.5
2.0
-5.2
Shooting
56.2%
54.0%
65.0%
50.0%
27.5%
40.0%
76.9%
66.0%
41.9%
40.3%
Ball control & glass
13.7%
14.9%
18.7%
18.6%
35.4%
44.6%
29.4%
35.2%
5.5%
8.2%
7.7%
9.5%
Style
37.1%
40.3%
50.6%
40.7%
21.9%
14.4%
64.2%
45.6%
35.7%
45.5%
Roster
2.11
3.53
6'6.8"
6'6.4"
27.3%
34.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input#12Arizona
Returning minutes: 27.5%Returning production: 27.5%
Lost
- Jaden Bradley 30.7 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brayden Burries 29.7 mpg, 16.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Koa Peat 25.7 mpg, 13.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anthony Dell'Orso 20.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tobe Awaka 20.7 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dwayne Aristode 11.9 mpg, 3.4 ppg · transferred to Oregon
Added
- RJ Godfrey from Clemson · 25.2 mpg, 12.0 ppg last season
- Derek Dixon from North Carolina · 22.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg last season
- Evan Otten from Idaho St · 14.8 mpg, 4.7 ppg last season
- JJ Mandaquit from Washington · 13.1 mpg, 3.5 ppg last season
- Ugnius Jarusevicius from Nebraska · 0.3 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Endurance Aiyamenkhue no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Auburn
Returning minutes: 34.5%Returning production: 31.9%
Lost
- Keyshawn Hall 31.8 mpg, 18.3 ppg · transferred to St John's
- Sebastian Williams-Adams 27.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Vanderbilt
- Elyjah Freeman 26.9 mpg, 9.2 ppg · transferred to Texas
- KeShawn Murphy 19.5 mpg, 8.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Filip Jovic 17.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg · transferred to UCLA
- Kaden Magwood 5.6 mpg, 1.9 ppg · transferred to Murray St
Added
- Thomas Dowd from Troy · 36.1 mpg, 14.4 ppg last season
- Adam Olsen from South Alabama · 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
- Kolby King from Utah State · 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Bukky Oboye from Santa Clara · 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
- Owen Freeman from Creighton · 9.0 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Caleb Williams no D1 minutes last season
Returns 35% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +2.5-115 | 159.5o-115 u-105 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | -1.5→+2.5-110 | 157.5→158.5o-110 u-110 | +118 | -142 |
| BetMGM | +1.5→+2.5-115 | 159.5o-105 u-115 | +118 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +0.5→+2.5-115 | 158.5o-113 u-110 | +118 | -148 |
| Caesars | +2→+2.5-110 | 157.5→159o-110 u-110 | +122 | -145 |
| Fanatics | -1→+2.5-110 | 157.5→158.5o-110 u-110 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline | +2→+2.5-115 | 159.5→158.5o-110 u-110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5→+2-105 | 159.5→158.5o-110 u-110 | +115 | -135 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5→+2.5-115 | 157.5→158.5o-110 u-110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock | +1.5→+2.5-115 | 158.5o-110 u-110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +1.5→+2.5-108 | 157.5→159.5o+104 u-108 | +117 | -122 |
| Polymarket | -1.5→+2.5-108 | 158.5o-108 u+104 | +117 | -122 |
| Novig | +1.5→+2.5-111 | 157.5→159.5o+104 u-108 | +122 | -125 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Dec 6 | 2025-26 | Auburn 68 – 97 Arizona |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.