UIC Flames vs Saint Mary's Gaels basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 10:00 PM ET · University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
Non-conferenceESPN+University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA
UIC
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #106
@
Saint Mary's
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #29
Live
68.975.8
Projected score
UIC win 27%SMC win 73%
MarketClose
Spread
SMC −6.5
open SMC −5.5
Total
151.0
open 151.5
Our line
SMC −7.0
Our total
144.7
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 9:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Saint Mary'srated 8.8 above average
+8.8
UICrated 5.2 above average
−5.2
Home court
+3.4
Our line
SMC −7.0
◂ UIC sideSaint Mary's side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Saint Mary'slower-scoring games
−2.3
UIClower-scoring games
−4.3
Our line
144.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Saint Mary's.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Saint Mary's is the faster team (69.9, #210 of 365) and UIC the slower (67.2, #290). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.2
per team, 40 min
Market total
151.0
Market close · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#242
UIC
70.1#207
Saint Mary's
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
SMC −6.9
Four factors −4.6 · not in these stats +11.5
From the four factors
Saint Mary's has the ball+3.2
UIC has the ball+7.8
Saint Mary's has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.6% #18 · UIC allows 48.6% #142+5.5
✗Coughs it upTO% 12.8% #30 · UIC forces 26.8% #15 · ~14 turnovers−2.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 27.2% #298 · UIC allows 24.1% #33 · FT 74.5% #102−0.8
✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.8% #219 · UIC allows 36.5% #284+0.5
UIC has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.9% #132 · SMC allows 54.2% #261+3.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.7% #27 · SMC forces 18.1% #170 · ~10 turnovers+2.8
✓Wins second chancesOR% 38.7% #53 · SMC allows 26.4% #76+1.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 41.2% #125 · SMC allows 43.8% #270 · FT 71.4% #150+0.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUICoffense vsSaint Mary'sdefense
Share of shots by zone
UIC shoots
43.4
10.1
9.1
37.4
Saint Mary's allows
42.7
7.6
14.6
35.0
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.8%#215 | 50.7%#74 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#233 | 33.3%#131 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#192 | 56.5%#334 | 36.0% |
| Three | 34.8%#128 | 37.7%#293 | 32.4% |
Saint Mary'soffense vsUICdefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Mary's shoots
36.1
7.2
17.2
39.4
UIC allows
29.9
4.6
12.6
52.9
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 73.8%#22 | 53.8%#110 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.8%#225 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 32.3%#222 | 18.2%#38 | 36.0% |
| Three | 44.6%#9 | 33.9%#217 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUIC
+15.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#9 of 365
Off reb %
38.7%
#53
Def reb %
63.5%
#284
Turnover %
12.7%
#27
Forced TO %
26.8%
#15
FT rate
41.2%
#125
FT allowed
24.1%
#33
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.4
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security+3.9
Forcing turnovers+6.2
Foul shots drawn+1.0
Foul shots allowed+3.5
Saint Mary's
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#164 of 365
Off reb %
29.8%
#219
Def reb %
73.6%
#76
Turnover %
12.8%
#30
Forced TO %
18.1%
#170
FT rate
27.2%
#298
FT allowed
43.8%
#270
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security+3.9
Forcing turnovers0.0
Foul shots drawn−2.6
Foul shots allowed−1.7
UIC has more extra scoring chances per game: +15.5 (#9 of 365) to Saint Mary's’s +0.8 (#164).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notUIC2026-27 numbers · last game: UNC Greensboro, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 26.7 | 31 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 62.5% | 20.7% | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 26.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 17.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 62.1% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 71.4% | 31.8% | |
| 55 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 25.7 | 29 | — | Bench | 9.7 | 1.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 34.6% | 21.1% | 6.3 | 91.7% | 26.8% | |
| 23 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 24.7 | 28 | — | Started last | 10.0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 67.5% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 19.2% | |
| 1 | F | So | 6'8" | 3-3 | 24.7 | 27 | — | Started last | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 61.1% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 80.0% | 17.1% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 5'9" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 23 | — | Started last | 12.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 53.4% | 41.2% | 5.7 | 75.0% | 28.0% | |
| 10 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 17.7 | 17 | — | Bench | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 61.1% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 14 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | 57.1% | 16.7% | |
| 18 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 0 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 90.0% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 17.9% | |
| 4 | F | So | 6'10" | 3-0 | 5.3 | 0 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 80.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 27.2% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 2.5 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 11.3% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUIC
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −0.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | UNC Greensboro | H | W 82–72 | −20.5 | L−10.5 | 148.0 | O154 | 127.7 | 112.1 | 64.2 |
| Nov 6 | Robert Morris | H | W 79–56 | −10.5 | W+12.5 | 142.0 | U135 | 112.7 | 79.9 | 70.1 |
| Nov 2 | St. Francis (IL) Fighting Saints | H | W 96–47 | — | — | — | — | 142.3 | 69.7 | 67.5 |
| Mar 18 | California | A | L 73–91 | +6.5 | L−11.5 | 151.0 | O164 | 102.6 | 127.9 | 71.2 |
| Mar 8 | Northern Iowa | N | L 69–84 | +3.0 | L−12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 116.5 | 141.8 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Drake | N | W 72–51 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 115.9 | 82.1 | 62.1 |
| Mar 6 | Murray St | N | W 92–79 | −1.0 | W+12.0 | 149.5 | O171 | 116.6 | 100.1 | 78.9 |
| Mar 1 | Indiana St | A | L 63–79 | −4.0 | L−20.0 | 144.0 | U142 | 93.3 | 117.0 | 67.5 |
| Feb 24 | Bradley | H | W 93–86 2OT | −2.0 | W+5.0 | 142.0 | O179 | 118.8 | 109.8 | 78.3 |
| Feb 21 | Valparaiso | H | L 67–71 | −7.0 | L−11.0 | 138.5 | U138 | 104.3 | 110.6 | 64.2 |
Saint Mary's
Against the spread
Season
1-1-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1-1
avg cover +8.5
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +31.2
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Nevada | N | L 95–96 OT | +1.0 | P0.0 | 146.0 | O191 | 114.4 | 115.6 | 83.1 |
| Nov 4 | N Dakota St | H | W 105–64 | −13.5 | W+27.5 | 148.0 | O169 | 154.7 | 94.3 | 67.9 |
| Nov 2 | Illinois St | H | W 90–85 OT | −7.0 | L−2.0 | 147.5 | O175 | 118.2 | 111.6 | 76.1 |
| Mar 19 | #10Texas A&M | N | L 50–63 | −2.5 | L−15.5 | 148.5 | U113 | 84.5 | 106.4 | 59.2 |
| Mar 9 | Santa Clara | N | L 71–76 | −4.5 | L−9.5 | 150.0 | U147 | 114.8 | 122.9 | 61.8 |
| Feb 28 | #9Gonzaga | H | W 70–59 | +2.5 | W+13.5 | 143.0 | U129 | 109.4 | 92.2 | 64.0 |
| Feb 25 | Santa Clara | H | W 86–67 | −5.5 | W+13.5 | 154.0 | U153 | 131.5 | 102.4 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | Washington St | A | W 83–67 | −8.5 | W+7.5 | 148.5 | O150 | 131.9 | 106.5 | 62.9 |
| Feb 18 | Seattle U | A | W 72–70 | −9.5 | L−7.5 | 133.0 | O142 | 98.4 | 95.7 | 73.1 |
| Feb 14 | Pacific | A | W 72–61 | −7.0 | W+4.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 113.5 | 96.2 | 63.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUICSaint Mary's
Efficiency
108.5
117.8
102.7
100.9
69.6
70.1
-7.1
4.2
Shooting
52.9%
61.6%
53.4%
58.0%
34.8%
44.6%
71.4%
74.5%
41.2%
27.2%
Ball control & glass
12.7%
12.8%
26.8%
18.1%
38.7%
29.8%
36.5%
26.4%
4.5%
8.4%
8.2%
1.7%
Style
38.7%
41.1%
44.7%
39.3%
11.8%
14.1%
65.5%
62.3%
37.3%
41.4%
Roster
2.83
2.79
6'4.2"
6'5.3"
44.5%
26.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUIC
Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 58.3%
Lost
- Abdul Momoh 23.3 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Sam Silverstein 21.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Crawford 17.0 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Villanova
- Josiah Hammons 14.2 mpg, 6.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ante Beljan 5.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg · transferred to UNC Greensboro
- Tai Walters-Whitaker 2.2 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Benny Gealer from Stanford · 29.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg last season
- Nicolas Ortiz new to D1 · 25.5 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Asa Thomas from Furman · 21.9 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Lucas Scroggins from Saint Peter's · 16.2 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Gabe Cupps from Ohio State · 11.9 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Jalen Johnson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5.
Saint Mary's
Returning minutes: 26.7%Returning production: 24.4%
Lost
- Paulius Murauskas 32.2 mpg, 18.4 ppg · transferred to Arizona St
- Dillan Shaw 27.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Arizona St
- Mikey Lewis 26.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · transferred to Texas
- Andrew McKeever 23.1 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to Iowa
- Harry Wessels 16.2 mpg, 4.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Liam Campbell 14.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to High Point
Added
- Jeremy Dent-Smith from Stanford · 20.1 mpg, 8.2 ppg last season
- Thomas Ndong from CA Baptist · 16.5 mpg, 4.6 ppg last season
- Salih Altuntas from Miami · 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg last season
- Vangelis Zougris from Louisville · 7.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Luke Fennell from Syracuse · 2.0 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
- Jalen Lewis no D1 minutes last season
Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -5.5→-6.5-112 | 151.5o-105 u-115 | -278 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -5.5→-6.5-110 | 150.5→151.5o-115 u-105 | -280 | +225 |
| BetMGM | — | 151.5o-105 u-115 | -285 | +225 |
| BetRivers | -5.5→-6.5-105 | 152.5→151.5o-107 u-117 | -278 | +215 |
| Fanatics | -6→-6.5-110 | 151.5→151o-110 u-110 | -280 | +225 |
| BetOnline | -5.5→-6.5-112 | 151.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | -280 | +230 |
| Bovada | -5.5→-6.5-110 | 151.5→151o-110 u-110 | -280 | +230 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5→-6.5-110 | 151.5→150.5o-115 u-105 | -275 | +225 |
| Hard Rock | -5.5-120 | 152.5→150.5o-115 u-105 | -275 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -5.5-127 | 152.5o+108 u-113 | -257 | +245 |
| Polymarket | -5.5→-6.5-104 | 151.5o+100 u-104 | -257 | +245 |
| Novig | -5.5→-6.5-106 | 151.5o-104 u-102 | -257 | +245 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.