Illinois State Redbirds vs North Dakota State Bison basketball final score
Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET · Scheels Center, Fargo, ND
Non-conferenceScheels Center, Fargo, ND
Illinois St
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #105
@
N Dakota St
1-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #217
Final (OT)
8182
Final score
Projected 74.8 – 71.1
ILST win 62%NDSU win 38%
MarketClose
Spread
ILST −3.0
open ILST −4.0
Total
145.5
open 148.5
Our line
ILST −3.7
Our total
146.0
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 7:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
N Dakota Strated 1.4 below average
−1.4
Illinois Strated 5.7 above average
−5.7
Home court
+3.4
Our line
ILST −3.7
◂ Illinois St sideN Dakota St side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
N Dakota Stlower-scoring games
−1.6
Illinois Stlower-scoring games
−3.8
Our line
146.0
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward N Dakota St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, N Dakota St is the faster team (68.5, #251 of 365) and Illinois St the slower (64.0, #344). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Market total
145.5
Market close · open 148.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#310
Illinois St
69.3#258
N Dakota St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ILST −3.7
Four factors +5.4 · not in these stats −1.7
From the four factors
N Dakota St has the ball+4.6
Illinois St has the ball+10.0
N Dakota St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 33.3% #152 · ILST allows 37.9% #304+1.8
✓Shoots it welleFG% 46.9% #252 · ILST allows 57.9% #314+1.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #114 · ILST forces 16.9% #207 · ~11 turnovers+1.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 22.4% #343 · ILST allows 38.6% #212 · FT 68.2% #221−0.6
Illinois St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.1% #84 · NDSU allows 71.3% #363+13.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.2% #324 · NDSU allows 28.0% #109−3.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.8% #241 · NDSU allows 33.5% #143 · FT 70.6% #169−0.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.8% #257 · NDSU forces 16.1% #237 · ~12 turnovers+0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootIllinois Stoffense vsN Dakota Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Illinois St shoots
30.0
6.0
15.0
49.0
N Dakota St allows
42.3
2.1
8.5
47.2
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#148 | 71.7%#335 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#78 | 100.0%#362 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#11 | 8.3%#10 | 36.0% |
| Three | 34.6%#130 | 53.2%#364 | 32.4% |
N Dakota Stoffense vsIllinois Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
N Dakota St shoots
39.1
9.2
1.7
50.0
Illinois St allows
40.7
5.6
22.2
31.5
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 45.6%#327 | 70.5%#323 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 18.8%#317 | 83.3%#361 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 66.7%#11 | 33.3%#143 | 36.0% |
| Three | 31.9%#193 | 33.3%#203 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineIllinois St
−8.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#308 of 365
Off reb %
22.2%
#324
Def reb %
62.1%
#304
Turnover %
19.8%
#257
Forced TO %
16.9%
#207
FT rate
31.8%
#241
FT allowed
38.6%
#212
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.1
Defensive rebounding−2.0
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed−0.3
N Dakota St
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#152
Def reb %
72.0%
#109
Turnover %
16.1%
#114
Forced TO %
16.1%
#237
FT rate
22.4%
#343
FT allowed
33.5%
#143
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding+1.3
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn−3.9
Foul shots allowed+1.0
N Dakota St has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.9 (#186 of 365) to Illinois St’s −8.8 (#308).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notIllinois St2026-27 numbers · last game: Purdue, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 5'11" | 3-3 | 35.0 | 40 | — | Started last | 19.3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 81.3% | 60.0% | 6.7 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-2 | 26.7 | 28 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 59.4% | 40.0% | 6.7 | 58.3% | 33.0% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'2" | 3-3 | 26.0 | 34 | — | Started last | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 60.7% | 45.5% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 15.8% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 17 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 68.8% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 21.2% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-3 | 22.0 | 26 | — | Started last | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.8% | |
| 24 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 11 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 66.7% | 8.5% | |
| 35 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-1 | 14.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 83.3% | 34.6% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 68.2% | 37.5% | 2.7 | — | 18.8% | |
| 33 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 12.3 | 19 | — | Bench | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 17.0% | |
| 15 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 6 | — | Bench | 6.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 72.7% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 30.1% | |
| 25 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 12.0 | — | — | Missed last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 0.0% | 27.7% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Missed last | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 25.6% | |
| 12 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 30.4% | |
| 13 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0 | — | Missed last 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 10.1% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameIllinois St
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover 0.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +9.2
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Purdue | A | L 59–76 | +15.0 | L−2.0 | 144.0 | U135 | 98.5 | 126.9 | 59.9 |
| Nov 5 | Central State Marauders | H | W 100–55 | — | — | — | — | 150.9 | 83.0 | 66.3 |
| Nov 2 | Saint Mary's | A | L 85–90 OT | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 147.5 | O175 | 111.6 | 118.2 | 76.1 |
| Apr 2 | Auburn | N | L 66–88 | +8.0 | L−14.0 | 148.0 | O154 | 102.7 | 136.9 | 64.3 |
| Mar 25 | Dayton | A | W 61–55 | +7.0 | W+13.0 | 140.0 | U116 | 97.2 | 87.6 | 62.8 |
| Mar 22 | Wake Forest | A | W 78–75 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 152.5 | O153 | 112.3 | 108.0 | 69.5 |
| Mar 18 | Kent State | H | W 79–58 | −4.5 | W+16.5 | 154.5 | U137 | 114.3 | 83.9 | 69.1 |
| Mar 6 | Northern Iowa | N | L 52–74 | +2.0 | L−20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 83.5 | 118.9 | 62.3 |
| Mar 1 | Belmont | H | W 81–74 | +1.0 | W+8.0 | 151.0 | O155 | 131.1 | 119.8 | 61.8 |
| Feb 25 | Northern Iowa | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 114.3 | 111.1 | 62.1 |
N Dakota St
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-0
Road
0-3
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −13.8
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
0-0
Road
3-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +14.0
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Bakersfield | A | L 80–91 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 153.5 | O171 | 114.5 | 130.2 | 69.9 |
| Nov 6 | San Francisco | A | L 70–79 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 145.5 | O149 | 103.3 | 116.6 | 67.7 |
| Nov 4 | Saint Mary's | A | L 64–105 | +13.5 | L−27.5 | 148.0 | O169 | 94.3 | 154.7 | 67.9 |
| Nov 2 | Crookston (MN) Golden Eagles | H | W 90–59 | — | — | — | — | 127.6 | 83.7 | 70.5 |
| Mar 19 | #3Michigan St | N | L 67–92 | +16.0 | L−9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 92.0 | 126.4 | 72.8 |
| Mar 8 | North Dakota | N | W 70–62 | −11.0 | L−3.0 | 148.0 | U132 | 108.4 | 96.0 | 64.6 |
| Mar 7 | Omaha | N | W 74–50 | −8.0 | W+16.0 | 147.0 | U124 | 109.2 | 73.8 | 67.8 |
| Mar 5 | Oral Roberts | N | W 76–65 | −12.0 | L−1.0 | 147.5 | U141 | 113.3 | 96.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 28 | North Dakota | H | W 96–63 | −12.0 | W+21.0 | 152.5 | O159 | 131.1 | 86.1 | 73.2 |
| Feb 26 | St Thomas | A | L 62–84 | +3.0 | L−19.0 | 155.5 | U146 | 95.1 | 128.8 | 65.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeIllinois StN Dakota St
Efficiency
108.7
107.9
102.8
111.7
68.0
69.3
16.8
3.6
Shooting
56.1%
46.9%
60.0%
46.1%
34.6%
31.9%
70.6%
68.2%
31.8%
22.4%
Ball control & glass
19.8%
16.1%
16.9%
16.1%
22.2%
33.3%
37.9%
28.0%
13.2%
6.3%
3.6%
21.6%
Style
48.6%
48.0%
34.7%
42.1%
13.2%
7.0%
66.7%
48.1%
38.6%
42.1%
Roster
3.13
2.56
6'4.7"
6'4.4"
34.0%
23.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputIllinois St
Returning minutes: 34.0%Returning production: 37.1%
Lost
- Boden Skunberg 26.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ty Pence 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Akron
- Landon Wolf 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ty'Reek Coleman 22.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Iowa
- Landon Moore 13.9 mpg, 3.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Lieb 12.6 mpg, 3.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Malik Messina-Moore from Xavier · 33.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg last season
- Deng Garang from Le Moyne · 30.1 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Zaxton King from Missouri St · 27.0 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Demarion Burch from Bradley · 17.6 mpg, 6.7 ppg last season
- Louie Semona III from Western KY · 2.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Noah Cleveland no D1 minutes last season
Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
N Dakota St
Returning minutes: 23.2%Returning production: 18.0%
Lost
- Trevian Carson 31.6 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Damari Wheeler-Thomas 27.9 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Boise St
- Markhi Strickland 24.3 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Feddersen 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Colorado
- Tay Smith 19.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Treyson Anderson 18.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Butler
Added
- Melvin Bell Jr. from San José St · 33.4 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
- Rob Diaz III from Long Beach St · 21.9 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
- Karl Poom from N Arizona · 19.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Jack Robison from Wisconsin · 0.9 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Santiago Paz Vazquez no D1 minutes last season
- Jaziah Harper no D1 minutes last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5-110 | 148.5→145.5o-105 u-115 | +136 | -162 |
| FanDuel | +4.5→+3.5-106 | 149.5→144.5o-110 u-110 | +140 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5-110 | 149.5→144.5o-115 u-105 | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +2.5→+3.5-120 | 147.5→145.5o-106 u-118 | +135 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +4→+3.5-110 | 149.5→145o-110 u-110 | +135 | -165 |
| BetOnline | +4→+3.5-105 | 149.5→145o-110 u-110 | +145 | -165 |
| Bovada | +2.5→+3.5-110 | 146.5→145o-110 u-110 | +145 | -170 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5-110 | 149.5→145.5o-110 u-110 | +140 | -165 |
| Hard Rock | +2.5+100 | 147.5→144.5o-115 u-105 | +135 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +1.5→+4.5-122 | 150.5→143.5o-117 u+113 | +144 | -150 |
| Polymarket | +3.5-104 | 144.5o-104 u+100 | +150 | -156 |
| Novig | +1.5→+3.5-102 | 149.5→— | +147 | -150 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.