Cal Poly Mustangs vs Idaho Vandals basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · ICCU Arena, Moscow, ID
Non-conferenceESPN+ICCU Arena, Moscow, ID
Cal Poly
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #231
@
Idaho
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #158
Live
86.989.5
Projected score
CP win 41%IDHO win 59%
MarketClose
Spread
IDHO −1.0
open IDHO −1.5
Total
167.0
open 165.0
Our line
IDHO −2.6
Our total
176.4
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Idahorated 3.6 below average
−3.6
Cal Polyrated 2.8 below average
+2.8
Home court
+3.4
Our line
IDHO −2.6
◂ Cal Poly sideIdaho side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Idahohigher-scoring games
+1.7
Cal Polyhigher-scoring games
+23.4
Our line
176.4
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Idaho.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 76.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Cal Poly is the faster team (81.1, #9 of 365) and Idaho the slower (69.1, #236). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
76.1
per team, 40 min
Market total
167.0
Market close · open 165.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
76.3#3
Cal Poly
70.2#202
Idaho
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
IDHO −2.6
Four factors +4.2 · not in these stats −1.6
From the four factors
Idaho has the ball+4.3
Cal Poly has the ball+0.1
Idaho has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.9% #108 · CP forces 12.3% #337 · ~10 turnovers+4.7
✓Shoots it welleFG% 46.7% #255 · CP allows 57.3% #308+1.6
✗Few second chancesOR% 23.1% #319 · CP allows 38.0% #305−1.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 24.6% #323 · CP allows 39.2% #222 · FT 66.7% #246−0.7
Cal Poly has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 51.6% #161 · IDHO allows 55.8% #286+3.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.6% #255 · IDHO allows 21.9% #17−3.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 33.6% #219 · IDHO allows 25.0% #38 · FT 61.9% #316−1.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 23.4% #331 · IDHO forces 11.6% #347 · ~13 turnovers+1.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootCal Polyoffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
Cal Poly shoots
37.4
8.8
1.1
52.7
Idaho allows
39.0
15.3
6.8
39.0
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.8%#170 | 73.9%#343 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 12.5%#341 | 33.3%#131 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#350 | 50.0%#297 | 36.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#149 | 30.4%#139 | 32.4% |
Idahooffense vsCal Polydefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
25.4
15.3
20.3
39.0
Cal Poly allows
53.4
5.8
6.8
34.0
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 46.7%#316 | 69.1%#313 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 66.7%#18 | 33.3%#131 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#192 | 57.1%#336 | 36.0% |
| Three | 29.2%#248 | 29.8%#125 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineCal Poly
−12.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#341 of 365
Off reb %
27.6%
#255
Def reb %
62.0%
#305
Turnover %
23.4%
#331
Forced TO %
12.3%
#337
FT rate
33.6%
#219
FT allowed
39.2%
#222
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.3
Defensive rebounding−2.1
Ball security−3.7
Forcing turnovers−4.1
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Idaho
−2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#223 of 365
Off reb %
23.1%
#319
Def reb %
78.1%
#17
Turnover %
15.9%
#108
Forced TO %
11.6%
#347
FT rate
24.6%
#323
FT allowed
25.0%
#38
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.8
Defensive rebounding+3.3
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−4.6
Foul shots drawn−3.3
Foul shots allowed+3.2
Idaho has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.5 (#223 of 365) to Cal Poly’s −12.5 (#341).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notCal Poly2026-27 numbers · last game: Grand Canyon, Nov 11
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 27.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 48.0% | 18.2% | 3.7 | 69.2% | 25.7% | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 27.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 21.3 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 5.3 | 75.7% | 59.1% | 7.3 | 73.3% | 35.3% | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 24.3 | 25 | — | Started last | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 36.8% | 23.5% | 5.7 | 100.0% | 15.7% | |
| 1 | G | So | 6'10" | 3-3 | 24.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 45.3% | 23.1% | 4.3 | 100.0% | 28.5% | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 17.0 | 15 | — | Bench | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 85.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 36.4% | 22.7% | |
| 11 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-3 | 16.7 | 20 | — | Started last | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 52.9% | 33.3% | 4.0 | 50.0% | 20.8% | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 13 | — | Bench | 4.3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 21.7% | |
| 8 | PG | Sr | 5'10" | 3-0 | 13.3 | 9 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 22.2% | 0.0% | 1.7 | 100.0% | 14.4% | |
| 00 | G | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 14.0 | 13 | — | Bench | 8.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 85.0% | 71.4% | 3.5 | — | 19.4% | |
| 2 | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 8.7 | 0 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 22.8% | |
| 15 | PF | Sr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 7.0 | 0 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.2% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 2.8% | |
| 24 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 8.5 | — | — | Active | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 20.0% | 33.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesCal Poly
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +0.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +1.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | Grand Canyon | A | L 71–99 | +18.5 | L−9.5 | 181.5 | U170 | 87.9 | 122.6 | 80.7 |
| Nov 5 | #5Arizona | A | L 84–104 | +30.5 | W+10.5 | 174.5 | O188 | 103.0 | 127.5 | 81.5 |
| Nov 2 | Cal State San Marcos Cougars | H | W 78–62 | — | — | — | — | 97.6 | 77.6 | 79.9 |
| Mar 11 | UC San Diego | N | L 69–72 | +4.5 | W+1.5 | 163.0 | U141 | 94.2 | 98.3 | 73.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bakersfield | H | W 108–76 | −9.0 | W+23.0 | 173.0 | O184 | 131.0 | 92.2 | 82.5 |
| Mar 5 | UC Irvine | A | L 85–107 | +9.5 | L−12.5 | 160.5 | O192 | 108.1 | 136.1 | 78.6 |
| Feb 28 | UC San Diego | A | L 64–80 | +7.5 | L−8.5 | 164.0 | U144 | 91.2 | 114.0 | 70.2 |
| Feb 26 | Long Beach St | H | W 102–92 | −5.5 | W+4.5 | 161.5 | O194 | 127.1 | 114.6 | 80.3 |
| Feb 19 | Hawai'i | A | W 86–75 | +11.0 | W+22.0 | 161.0 | P161 | 104.3 | 91.0 | 82.4 |
| Feb 14 | Santa Barbara | H | W 89–79 | +4.5 | W+14.5 | 159.0 | O168 | 133.5 | 118.5 | 66.7 |
Idaho
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +5.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −6.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Lincoln (CA) Oaklanders | H | W 108–69 | — | — | — | — | 139.7 | 89.3 | 77.3 |
| Nov 6 | Colorado St | A | L 67–78 | +16.5 | W+5.5 | 151.5 | U145 | 96.9 | 112.8 | 69.1 |
| Nov 2 | George Fox Bruins | H | W 97–56 | — | — | — | — | 131.0 | 75.6 | 74.1 |
| Mar 19 | #2Houston | N | L 47–78 | +24.0 | L−7.0 | 137.5 | U125 | 71.6 | 118.8 | 65.7 |
| Mar 11 | Montana | N | W 77–66 | −3.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | U143 | 106.8 | 91.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 10 | E Washington | N | W 81–68 | −2.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O149 | 113.2 | 95.1 | 71.5 |
| Mar 8 | Montana St | N | W 78–74 | +1.0 | W+5.0 | 143.0 | O152 | 115.7 | 109.8 | 67.4 |
| Mar 7 | Sacramento St | N | W 68–45 | −7.0 | W+16.0 | 158.5 | U113 | 98.2 | 65.0 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | E Washington | A | W 85–81 | +3.0 | W+7.0 | 150.5 | O166 | 127.0 | 121.0 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | N Colorado | H | L 67–76 | −2.0 | L−11.0 | 156.0 | U143 | 100.0 | 113.4 | 67.0 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeCal PolyIdaho
Efficiency
105.8
105.1
110.4
104.7
76.3
70.2
15.9
6.9
Shooting
51.6%
46.7%
52.4%
48.6%
33.9%
29.2%
61.9%
66.7%
33.6%
24.6%
Ball control & glass
23.4%
15.9%
12.3%
11.6%
27.6%
23.1%
38.0%
21.9%
15.4%
8.7%
9.5%
13.5%
Style
49.6%
39.3%
41.3%
32.8%
21.3%
3.0%
46.3%
44.0%
40.3%
40.7%
Roster
2.66
3.16
6'6.2"
6'5.5"
77.6%
13.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputCal Poly
Returning minutes: 82.2%Returning production: 82.2%
Lost
- Peter Bandelj 29.8 mpg, 12.6 ppg · transferred to Nevada
- Luka Tarlac 5.5 mpg, 1.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Eric Brown 0.5 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Braden Freeman no D1 minutes last season
- Anthony Moore no D1 minutes last season
- Canon Wyatt no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 82% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Idaho
Returning minutes: 13.8%Returning production: 12.7%
Lost
- Jackson Rasmussen 30.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg · transferred to Oregon St
- Kolton Mitchell 27.9 mpg, 12.6 ppg · transferred to Ohio
- Biko Johnson 27.7 mpg, 12.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brody Rowbury 24.5 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jack Payne 20.3 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Long Beach St
- Isaiah Brickner 19.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Hudson Ward from W Michigan · 7.8 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Ryan Lafferty from St Thomas · 4.4 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
- Kase Wynott from Washington St · 1.5 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Brady Kennison no D1 minutes last season
- Will Jenson no D1 minutes last season
- Ryan Carney no D1 minutes last season
Returns 14% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -1.5-105 | 165.5→167.5o-110 u-110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5-106 | 164.5→167.5o-110 u-110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | — | 165.5→167.5o-110 u-110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -0.5→-1.5-112 | 167.5o-117 u-107 | -130 | +105 |
| Caesars | -1.5→-1-110 | 165.5→167o-110 u-110 | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -1.5-105 | 165.5→167o-110 u-110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline | -2→-1.5-110 | 165→168o-110 u-110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5→-1-110 | 166.5→167o-110 u-110 | -115 | -105 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5+100 | 165.5→167.5o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| Hard Rock | -1.5-110 | 167.5o-115 u-105 | -130 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -1.5+104 | 164.5→166.5o-104 u+100 | -113 | +108 |
| Polymarket | -1.5+100 | 166.5o-108 u+100 | -117 | +113 |
| Novig | -1.5+102 | 167.5o+102 u-106 | -113 | +108 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 21 | 2025-26 | Idaho 83 – 80 Cal Poly |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.