East Texas A&M Lions vs Portland Pilots basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 10:00 PM ET · Chiles Center, Portland, OR
Non-conferenceESPN+Chiles Center, Portland, OR
East Texas A&M
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #263
@
Portland
3-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #190
Live
70.480.1
Projected score
ETAM win 20%PORT win 80%
MarketClose
Spread
PORT −7.0
open PORT −7.0
Total
152.0
open 150.0
Our line
PORT −9.7
Our total
150.5
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 9:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Portlandrated 1.6 below average
−1.6
East Texas A&Mrated 7.9 below average
+7.9
Home court
+3.3
Our line
PORT −9.7
◂ East Texas A&M sidePortland side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Portlandhigher-scoring games
+4.6
East Texas A&Mlower-scoring games
−5.3
Our line
150.5
Axis starts at 148 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Portland.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Portland is the faster team (72.9, #102 of 365) and East Texas A&M the slower (65.9, #325). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.9
per team, 40 min
Market total
152.0
Market close · open 150.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#286
East Texas A&M
71.6#107
Portland
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
PORT −9.6
Four factors −2.2 · not in these stats +11.8
From the four factors
Portland has the ball+0.2
East Texas A&M has the ball+2.4
Portland has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.7% #16 · ETAM allows 44.5% #60+3.6
✗Coughs it upTO% 24.0% #337 · ETAM forces 18.9% #136 · ~15 turnovers−3.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 19.1% #351 · ETAM allows 43.4% #346−1.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 52.0% #38 · ETAM allows 42.6% #256 · FT 72.5% #138+1.0
East Texas A&M has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 44.3% #9 · PORT allows 29.6% #150+3.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.3% #310 · PORT forces 11.7% #346 · ~11 turnovers+1.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 48.4% #222 · PORT allows 50.0% #169−1.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 30.5% #262 · PORT allows 29.5% #91 · FT 61.4% #324−1.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootEast Texas A&Moffense vsPortlanddefense
Share of shots by zone
East Texas A&M shoots
30.5
9.6
7.5
52.4
Portland allows
30.5
18.8
8.6
42.2
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.1%#209 | 53.8%#110 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.9%#158 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 14.3%#332 | 18.2%#38 | 36.0% |
| Three | 33.7%#161 | 35.1%#242 | 32.4% |
Portlandoffense vsEast Texas A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
Portland shoots
27.6
9.2
20.4
42.9
East Texas A&M allows
37.7
13.7
7.1
41.5
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.3%#164 | 55.1%#131 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 55.6%#61 | 28.0%#99 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 55.0%#33 | 38.5%#198 | 36.0% |
| Three | 45.2%#7 | 27.6%#84 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineEast Texas A&M
−5.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365
Off reb %
44.3%
#9
Def reb %
56.6%
#346
Turnover %
22.3%
#310
Forced TO %
18.9%
#136
FT rate
30.5%
#262
FT allowed
42.6%
#256
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.3
Defensive rebounding−3.9
Ball security−2.9
Forcing turnovers+0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−1.4
Portland
−6.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#276 of 365
Off reb %
19.1%
#351
Def reb %
70.4%
#150
Turnover %
24.0%
#337
Forced TO %
11.7%
#346
FT rate
52.0%
#38
FT allowed
29.5%
#91
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−4.1
Defensive rebounding+0.7
Ball security−4.1
Forcing turnovers−4.5
Foul shots drawn+3.8
Foul shots allowed+2.0
East Texas A&M has more extra scoring chances per game: −5.0 (#264 of 365) to Portland’s −6.1 (#276).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notEast Texas A&M2026-27 numbers · last game: FDU, Nov 11
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 34.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 16.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 50.0% | 30.0% | 6.7 | 100.0% | 31.7% | |
| 8 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 30.7 | 34 | — | Started last | 18.0 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 51.1% | 40.6% | 10.7 | 64.3% | 37.3% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 29.7 | 29 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 54.5% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 0.0% | 11.5% | |
| 1 | F | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 26.7 | 24 | — | Started last | 15.7 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 51.5% | 35.7% | 4.7 | 75.0% | 38.3% | |
| 20 | F | Fr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 26.7 | 25 | — | Bench | 7.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 41.7% | 15.4% | 4.3 | 60.0% | 23.0% | |
| 21 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 20.0 | 11 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 30.0% | 13.8% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 18.7 | 24 | — | Bench | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 63.3% | 41.7% | 4.0 | — | 19.6% | |
| 24 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 15.0 | 16 | — | Started last | 0.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 20.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 12.1% | |
| 12 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 5.3 | 2 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 30.6% | |
| 7 | F | Fr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 2 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 30.6% | |
| 25 | F | Fr | 7'1" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 2 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesEast Texas A&M
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
0-1
Road
2-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +7.7
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-0
Road
0-2
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −0.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | FDU | H | L 76–80 OT | −11.0 | L−15.0 | 138.5 | O156 | 105.7 | 111.2 | 71.9 |
| Nov 5 | Rice | A | W 72–71 | +3.5 | W+4.5 | 145.5 | U143 | 106.0 | 104.5 | 68.0 |
| Nov 2 | Oklahoma | A | W 68–64 | +29.5 | W+33.5 | 148.5 | U132 | 102.7 | 96.7 | 66.2 |
| Mar 2 | Texas A&M-CC | A | L 71–84 | +8.0 | L−5.0 | 137.5 | O155 | 105.6 | 124.9 | 67.2 |
| Feb 28 | UT Rio Grande | A | L 55–63 | +10.0 | W+2.0 | 147.5 | U118 | 95.5 | 109.4 | 57.6 |
| Feb 23 | Hou Christian | H | L 68–69 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 139.5 | U137 | 106.1 | 107.6 | 64.1 |
| Feb 21 | Incarnate Word | H | L 73–82 | −4.0 | L−13.0 | 146.5 | O155 | 127.6 | 143.4 | 57.2 |
| Feb 16 | SE Louisiana | H | W 70–53 | −1.5 | W+15.5 | 136.5 | U123 | 103.3 | 78.2 | 67.7 |
| Feb 14 | McNeese | H | L 54–97 | +13.5 | L−29.5 | 142.5 | O151 | 79.3 | 142.4 | 68.1 |
| Feb 9 | SF Austin | A | L 70–74 | +15.0 | W+11.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 104.7 | 110.7 | 66.8 |
Portland
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +4.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +2.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Hawai'i | A | W 73–66 | +8.0 | W+15.0 | 158.0 | U139 | 111.4 | 100.7 | 65.5 |
| Nov 8 | Bethesda Flames | N | W 130–56 | — | — | — | — | 145.9 | 62.9 | 89.1 |
| Nov 6 | UT Arlington | N | L 85–89 | −2.0 | L−6.0 | 150.0 | O174 | 105.8 | 110.8 | 80.3 |
| Nov 2 | Willamette Bearcats | H | W 133–89 | — | — | — | — | 137.2 | 89.8 | 96.9 |
| Mar 7 | San Francisco | N | L 65–82 | +7.0 | L−10.0 | 144.5 | O147 | 97.0 | 122.3 | 67.0 |
| Mar 6 | Washington St | N | W 74–68 | +5.5 | W+11.5 | 150.0 | U142 | 106.3 | 97.7 | 69.6 |
| Mar 5 | Pepperdine | N | W 77–68 | −3.5 | W+5.5 | 154.0 | U145 | 111.2 | 98.2 | 69.3 |
| Feb 28 | San Diego | H | W 87–74 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 148.5 | O161 | 125.8 | 107.0 | 69.2 |
| Feb 25 | #9Gonzaga | A | L 48–89 | +27.0 | L−14.0 | 150.0 | U137 | 71.2 | 131.9 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Seattle U | A | L 59–71 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 140.0 | U130 | 86.0 | 103.5 | 68.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeEast Texas A&MPortland
Efficiency
100.2
105.5
106.7
107.7
68.8
71.6
-6.1
0.3
Shooting
48.4%
61.7%
46.1%
57.1%
33.7%
45.2%
61.4%
72.5%
30.5%
52.0%
Ball control & glass
22.3%
24.0%
18.9%
11.7%
44.3%
19.1%
43.4%
29.6%
14.6%
10.3%
18.0%
3.6%
Style
52.4%
42.9%
35.2%
24.1%
16.7%
8.9%
73.0%
47.1%
34.6%
40.5%
Roster
1.89
2.90
6'4.8"
6'6.1"
0.0%
25.7%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputEast Texas A&M
Returning minutes: 6.8%Returning production: 1.1%
Lost
- Gianni Hunt 30.9 mpg, 10.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ronnie Harrison 27.7 mpg, 13.8 ppg · transferred to Washington St
- Noah Pagotto 26.1 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to N Kentucky
- Damian Garcia 26.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Vinny Sigona 17.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Canisius
- Josh Taylor 16.8 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Alonzo Dodd from App State · 31.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
- Jaxson Ford from Sam Houston · 5.6 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
- Amar Hot no D1 minutes last season
- Mohamed Diakite no D1 minutes last season
- Chris Adlam no D1 minutes last season
- Yvain Vidal no D1 minutes last season
Returns 7% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Portland
Returning minutes: 25.7%Returning production: 30.0%
Lost
- Joel Foxwell 35.7 mpg, 15.6 ppg · transferred to Arizona St
- Garrett Nuckolls 25.9 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cameron Williams 21.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Kent State
- Mikah Ballew 21.5 mpg, 8.0 ppg · transferred to CSU Northridge
- Jermaine Ballisager Webb 19.8 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Matus Hronsky 16.7 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Jaxon Olvera from Louisiana · 29.2 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
- Kaia Isaac from Tarleton St · 25.3 mpg, 5.6 ppg last season
- Hunter Adam from Davidson · 15.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
- Vito Perkovic from East Carolina · 4.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg last season
- Dylan Moran no D1 minutes last season
- Marchelo Moreira no D1 minutes last season
Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -7.5-108 | 150.5→151.5o-115 u-105 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5-110 | 150.5→151.5o-110 u-110 | -330 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -7.5-110 | 151.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -7.5-107 | 150.5→152.5o-107 u-117 | -335 | +250 |
| Caesars | -7.5→-7-110 | 150.5→152o-110 u-110 | -305 | +240 |
| Fanatics | -7→-7.5-105 | 150→152o-110 u-110 | -320 | +250 |
| BetOnline | -7-115 | 150→152.5o-104 u-116 | — | — |
| Bovada | -7.5→-7-115 | 150.5→152o-110 u-110 | -310 | +255 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5-105 | 151.5o-110 u-110 | -275 | +225 |
| Hard Rock | -7.5-105 | 150.5→151.5o-115 u-105 | -325 | +250 |
| Kalshi | -8.5+127 | 151.5o+104 u-108 | -285 | +270 |
| Polymarket | -7.5+104 | 150.5→151.5o+100 u-104 | -285 | +270 |
| Novig | -7.5+100 | 150.5→151.5o+102 u-106 | -277 | +270 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.