DePaul Blue Demons vs Northwestern Wildcats basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
Non-conferenceBTNWelsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
DePaul
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #86
@
Northwestern
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #73
Live
73.770.0
Projected score
DEP win 63%NU win 37%
MarketClose
Spread
NU −1.0
open DEP −1.5
Total
138.0
open 140.5
Our line
DEP −3.7
Our total
143.6
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Northwesternrated 4.4 above average
+4.4
DePaulrated 11.5 above average
−11.5
Home court
+3.4
Our line
DEP −3.7
◂ DePaul sideNorthwestern side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Northwesternlower-scoring games
−2.3
DePaullower-scoring games
−5.4
Our line
143.6
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Northwestern.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, DePaul is the faster team (69.8, #214 of 365) and Northwestern the slower (63.4, #351). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
138.0
Market close · open 140.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.6#243
DePaul
67.5#328
Northwestern
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
DEP −3.7
Four factors −3.5 · not in these stats +7.2
From the four factors
Northwestern has the ball+2.3
DePaul has the ball−1.3
Northwestern has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.6% #26 · DEP forces 16.7% #211 · ~9 turnovers+3.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 31.8% #186 · DEP allows 25.4% #58−1.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 34.9% #197 · DEP allows 26.1% #48 · FT 75.9% #75−0.3
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.8% #54 · DEP allows 42.5% #38+0.3
DePaul has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 30.6% #206 · NU allows 26.3% #72−1.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 41.6% #120 · NU allows 39.9% #235 · FT 79.2% #41+0.8
✗Coughs it upTO% 16.2% #122 · NU forces 21.0% #76 · ~13 turnovers−0.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 53.2% #127 · NU allows 46.6% #95−0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootDePauloffense vsNorthwesterndefense
Share of shots by zone
DePaul shoots
27.3
9.1
7.8
55.8
Northwestern allows
34.8
3.0
16.7
45.5
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 59.5%#161 | 56.5%#153 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 57.1%#52 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#278 | 36.4%#183 | 36.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#108 | 26.9%#68 | 32.4% |
Northwesternoffense vsDePauldefense
Share of shots by zone
Northwestern shoots
31.5
2.7
21.2
44.5
DePaul allows
28.8
8.3
17.9
44.9
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.2%#82 | 55.6%#138 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 75.0%#9 | 38.5%#179 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.2%#94 | 25.0%#65 | 36.0% |
| Three | 38.0%#67 | 29.5%#116 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineDePaul
+6.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#89 of 365
Off reb %
30.6%
#206
Def reb %
74.6%
#58
Turnover %
16.2%
#122
Forced TO %
16.7%
#211
FT rate
41.6%
#120
FT allowed
26.1%
#48
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.3
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.4
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+2.9
Northwestern
+6.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#86 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#186
Def reb %
73.7%
#72
Turnover %
12.6%
#26
Forced TO %
21.0%
#76
FT rate
34.9%
#197
FT allowed
39.9%
#235
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security+4.0
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−0.6
Northwestern has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.8 (#86 of 365) to DePaul’s +6.4 (#89).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notDePaul2026-27 numbers · last game: Alabama A&M, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 30.7 | 38 | — | Started last | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 64.3% | 46.2% | 8.7 | 50.0% | 19.8% | |
| 22 | G | So | 6'6" | 3-2 | 26.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 7.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 5.3 | 91.7% | 22.8% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 26.3 | 36 | — | Started last | 9.7 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 55.3% | 50.0% | 3.3 | 100.0% | 18.6% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 23.7 | 24 | — | Bench | 12.7 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 35.7% | 4.7 | 84.6% | 29.6% | |
| 9 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-1 | 32.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 12.0 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 63.3% | 33.3% | 4.5 | 71.4% | 17.0% | |
| 15 | C | Jr | 7'2" | 3-3 | 21.0 | 29 | — | Started last | 7.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 78.6% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 15.3% | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 20.3 | 22 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 55.3% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 60.0% | 27.8% | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 7'0" | 3-3 | 17.7 | 14 | — | Started last | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 47.9% | 30.0% | 3.3 | 76.9% | 35.1% | |
| 16 | C | Jr | 7'0" | 3-0 | 7.7 | 6 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 11.1% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 1.7 | 0 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 33.9% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 2.0 | 0 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 14.3% | |
| 8 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 6 | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 38.9% |
Into the starting lineup: Kruz McClure.Out of the starting lineup: Noah Meeusen.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesDePaul
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover +0.2
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −2.3
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Alabama A&M | H | W 84–47 | −23.5 | W+13.5 | 140.0 | U131 | 121.0 | 67.7 | 69.4 |
| Nov 5 | South Florida | H | W 82–80 | −6.5 | L−4.5 | 150.5 | O162 | 123.2 | 120.2 | 66.6 |
| Nov 2 | West Georgia | H | W 75–58 | −25.5 | L−8.5 | 142.5 | U133 | 102.3 | 79.1 | 73.3 |
| Mar 11 | Georgetown | N | L 56–63 | −5.0 | L−12.0 | 130.0 | U119 | 89.0 | 100.2 | 62.9 |
| Mar 7 | Butler | H | L 71–81 | −4.0 | L−14.0 | 142.5 | O152 | 96.8 | 110.4 | 73.4 |
| Mar 4 | Villanova | H | L 57–76 | +2.0 | L−17.0 | 136.5 | U133 | 81.1 | 108.2 | 70.3 |
| Mar 1 | Marquette | A | W 62–51 | +4.5 | W+15.5 | 139.5 | U113 | 98.0 | 80.6 | 63.2 |
| Feb 25 | Creighton | A | W 72–71 | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 142.5 | O143 | 110.8 | 109.3 | 65.0 |
| Feb 21 | Providence | H | L 68–71 | −3.0 | L−6.0 | 152.5 | U139 | 101.2 | 105.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 18 | Seton Hall | A | W 69–57 | +7.0 | W+19.0 | 129.0 | U126 | 106.6 | 88.0 | 64.7 |
Northwestern
Against the spread
Season
3-0
Home
3-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
3-0
avg cover +3.7
Covered 3 straight
Over / under
Season
0-3
Home
0-3
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-3
avg vs total −6.0
Under 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Boston U | H | W 72–55 | −13.5 | W+3.5 | 143.0 | U127 | 110.2 | 84.2 | 65.3 |
| Nov 6 | Stony Brook | H | W 78–65 | −12.5 | W+0.5 | 144.5 | U143 | 126.9 | 105.8 | 61.5 |
| Nov 2 | Binghamton | H | W 86–60 | −19.0 | W+7.0 | 146.5 | U146 | 135.4 | 94.5 | 63.5 |
| Mar 12 | #18Purdue | N | L 68–81 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 140.0 | O149 | 114.4 | 136.3 | 59.4 |
| Mar 11 | Indiana | N | W 74–61 | +6.0 | W+19.0 | 142.0 | U135 | 121.9 | 100.5 | 60.7 |
| Mar 10 | Penn State | N | W 76–66 | −5.0 | W+5.0 | 144.5 | U142 | 119.6 | 103.9 | 63.6 |
| Mar 7 | Minnesota | A | L 66–67 | +4.0 | W+3.0 | 133.5 | U133 | 119.7 | 121.5 | 55.1 |
| Mar 4 | #15Purdue | H | L 66–70 | +10.5 | W+6.5 | 145.5 | U136 | 114.9 | 121.8 | 57.5 |
| Feb 28 | Oregon | H | W 63–62 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 142.5 | U125 | 98.9 | 97.3 | 63.7 |
| Feb 24 | Indiana | A | W 72–68 | +8.5 | W+12.5 | 146.0 | U140 | 117.8 | 111.3 | 61.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeDePaulNorthwestern
Efficiency
106.1
112.0
98.8
102.3
69.6
67.5
-4.6
-7.1
Shooting
53.2%
57.8%
52.6%
58.6%
35.8%
38.0%
79.2%
75.9%
41.6%
34.9%
Ball control & glass
16.2%
12.6%
16.7%
21.0%
30.6%
31.8%
25.4%
26.3%
10.0%
5.3%
14.1%
10.3%
Style
54.9%
47.6%
34.0%
34.7%
10.4%
15.3%
73.3%
64.2%
37.8%
25.4%
Roster
3.33
2.96
6'6.5"
6'5.8"
27.4%
21.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputDePaul
Returning minutes: 34.7%Returning production: 31.6%
Lost
- RJ Smith 27.7 mpg, 6.6 ppg · transferred to Santa Barbara
- CJ Gunn 27.7 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- NJ Benson 25.9 mpg, 11.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brandon Maclin 25.0 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kaleb Banks 15.7 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to Tulsa
- Ilija Milijasevic 3.7 mpg, 1.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ade Popoola from Tulsa · 28.7 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Wilson Jacques from Fresno St · 27.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg last season
- Koree Cotton from UT Rio Grande · 27.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
- Kahmare Holmes from Wofford · 25.9 mpg, 15.8 ppg last season
- Noah Meeusen from Arizona St · 24.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Magoon Gwath from San Diego St · 14.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg last season
Returns 35% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Northwestern
Returning minutes: 21.8%Returning production: 17.3%
Lost
- Nick Martinelli 34.6 mpg, 22.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayden Reid 25.8 mpg, 10.1 ppg · transferred to Memphis
- Tre Singleton 25.0 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- Arrinten Page 19.4 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to Providence
- Jordan Clayton 16.6 mpg, 3.5 ppg · transferred to UMass
- Tyler Kropp 10.9 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Washington St
Added
- Colin Smith from Santa Barbara · 28.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg last season
- Jack Karasinski from Bellarmine · 28.0 mpg, 20.3 ppg last season
- Luke McEldon from Mount St Marys · 24.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Okku Federiko from Drake · 23.3 mpg, 8.6 ppg last season
- Ryan Soulis from Columbia · 18.6 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Aleksej Kostic from BYU · 9.2 mpg, 3.4 ppg last season
Returns 22% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5→-1.5+110 | 140.5→136.5o-115 u-105 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5→-1.5-105 | 140.5→136.5o-115 u-105 | -118 | -102 |
| BetMGM | +1.5-130 | 140.5→136.5o-115 u-105 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | +0.5→-0.5-113 | 140.5→136.5o-117 u-107 | -113 | -110 |
| Fanatics | +1→-1-105 | 140.5→137o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| BetOnline | +1→0-114 | 141→136.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1.5→+1-115 | 139.5→137o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5→-1.5+110 | 140.5→136.5o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| Hard Rock | +1.5→-1.5+105 | 140.5→136.5o-115 u-105 | -110 | -110 |
| Kalshi | +1.5-113 | 139.5→136.5o-108 u+104 | -104 | +100 |
| Polymarket | +0.5-122 | 137.5o+104 u-108 | — | — |
| Novig | +1.5-113 | 140.5→— | -102 | +100 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 14 | 2025-26 | Northwestern 81 – 79 DePaul |
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.