Xavier Musketeers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Colonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV (neutral site)
Greenbrier Tip-OffNeutral siteNon-conferenceFS1Colonial Hall, White Sulphur Springs, WV
Xavier
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #52
vs
Mississippi St
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #64
Live
84.277.0
Projected score
XAV win 73%MSST win 27%
MarketClose
Spread
XAV −4.0
open XAV −3.5
Total
162.0
open 164.5
Our line
XAV −7.2
Our total
161.2
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Mississippi Strated 8.2 above average
+8.2
Xavierrated 15.3 above average
−15.3
Our line
XAV −7.2
◂ Xavier sideMississippi St side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Mississippi Sthigher-scoring games
+3.4
Xavierhigher-scoring games
+6.4
Our line
161.2
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Mississippi St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 76.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Xavier is the faster team (78.9, #15 of 365) and Mississippi St the slower (71.3, #155). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
76.3
per team, 40 min
Market total
162.0
Market close · open 164.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
76.3#4
Xavier
70.5#186
Mississippi St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
XAV −7.2
Four factors 2.9Not in these stats 4.3
From the four factors
Mississippi St has the ball−3.3
Xavier has the ball−0.4
Mississippi St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 59.9% #27 · XAV allows 32.6% #2−3.8
✓Wins second chancesOR% 47.1% #3 · XAV allows 25.5% #60+3.7
✗Coughs it upTO% 16.8% #144 · XAV forces 24.5% #28 · ~16 turnovers−3.0
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 40.8% #131 · XAV allows 27.9% #72 · FT 73.1% #124−0.2
Xavier has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.2% #63 · MSST allows 45.4% #72+1.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.0% #165 · MSST allows 23.1% #29−1.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 34.8% #200 · MSST allows 30.1% #96 · FT 61.4% #323−1.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 16.1% #112 · MSST forces 19.2% #129 · ~13 turnovers+0.6
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootXavieroffense vsMississippi Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Xavier shoots
45.5
5.3
6.1
43.2
Mississippi St allows
22.1
17.2
12.3
48.4
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 75.0%#16 | 55.6%#138 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 14.3%#334 | 28.6%#100 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.5%#156 | 33.3%#143 | 36.0% |
| Three | 27.5%#277 | 29.9%#130 | 32.4% |
Mississippi Stoffense vsXavierdefense
Share of shots by zone
Mississippi St shoots
43.5
8.4
7.6
40.5
Xavier allows
30.5
9.9
17.6
42.0
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 70.2%#42 | 35.0%#3 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.4%#174 | 30.8%#123 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.0%#237 | 21.7%#51 | 36.0% |
| Three | 38.7%#58 | 20.8%#8 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineXavier
+10.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#42 of 365
Off reb %
33.0%
#165
Def reb %
74.5%
#60
Turnover %
16.1%
#112
Forced TO %
24.5%
#28
FT rate
34.8%
#200
FT allowed
27.9%
#72
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+4.6
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+2.5
Mississippi St
+12.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365
Off reb %
47.1%
#3
Def reb %
76.9%
#29
Turnover %
16.8%
#144
Forced TO %
19.2%
#129
FT rate
40.8%
#131
FT allowed
30.1%
#96
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+5.2
Defensive rebounding+2.9
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.9
Mississippi St has more extra scoring chances per game: +12.7 (#28 of 365) to Xavier’s +10.6 (#42).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notXavier2026-27 numbers · last game: Detroit Mercy, Nov 10
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 22.3 | 23 | — | Started last | 7.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 57.5% | 25.0% | 4.0 | — | 23.6% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 22.3 | 27 | — | Started last | 9.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 33.9% | 12.5% | 2.7 | 90.9% | 31.3% | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 20.7 | 22 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 73.9% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 40.0% | 25.3% | |
| 24 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 19.7 | 28 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 67.5% | 50.0% | 3.3 | 66.7% | 20.3% | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 19.7 | 27 | — | Started last | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 40.5% | 27.8% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 19.2% | |
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 18.7 | 13 | — | Bench | 14.3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 63.0% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 87.5% | 28.8% | |
| 16 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 18.0 | 15 | — | Bench | 6.3 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 81.8% | — | 0.0 | 16.7% | 15.0% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 16.0 | 16 | — | Bench | 7.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 80.8% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 12.5% | 18.8% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 16.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 61.1% | 28.6% | 2.3 | 62.5% | 26.2% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 16.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 55.6% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 25.0% | 15.7% | |
| 15 | C | Fr | 7'0" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 3 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 25.9% | |
| 7 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 19.9% | |
| 17 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Active | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 53.7% | |
| 20 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 25 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 36.0% | |
| 6 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesXavier
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +9.2
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-3
Home
0-3
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-3
avg vs total −10.8
Under 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Detroit Mercy | H | W 100–55 | −35.5 | W+9.5 | 156.0 | U155 | 116.2 | 63.9 | 86.1 |
| Nov 6 | E Michigan | H | W 76–53 | −23.5 | L−0.5 | 151.5 | U129 | 108.2 | 75.5 | 70.2 |
| Nov 2 | Mount St Marys | H | W 97–52 | −26.5 | W+18.5 | 158.0 | U149 | 120.6 | 64.6 | 80.4 |
| Mar 12 | #6UConn | N | L 68–93 | +16.5 | L−8.5 | 151.0 | O161 | 105.5 | 144.4 | 64.4 |
| Mar 11 | Marquette | N | W 89–87 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 157.0 | O176 | 116.3 | 113.7 | 76.6 |
| Mar 7 | Villanova | A | L 78–91 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 154.0 | O169 | 109.9 | 128.2 | 71.0 |
| Mar 3 | Seton Hall | H | L 68–77 | +2.0 | L−7.0 | 144.5 | O145 | 107.2 | 121.4 | 63.4 |
| Feb 28 | Georgetown | H | W 91–84 | −4.5 | W+2.5 | 154.0 | O175 | 127.4 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
| Feb 25 | Providence | A | L 84–94 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 170.0 | O178 | 120.9 | 135.3 | 69.5 |
| Feb 21 | Butler | A | L 75–80 | +4.5 | L−0.5 | 159.5 | U155 | 110.4 | 117.7 | 67.9 |
Mississippi St
Against the spread
Season
2-0-1
Home
2-0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0-1
avg cover +11.0
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg vs total +3.7
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Jackson St | H | W 98–57 | −24.5 | W+16.5 | 153.5 | O155 | 133.8 | 77.8 | 73.2 |
| Nov 5 | N'Western St | H | W 82–44 | −21.5 | W+16.5 | 152.0 | U126 | 130.6 | 70.1 | 62.8 |
| Nov 2 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 106–88 | −18.0 | P0.0 | 158.5 | O194 | 136.2 | 113.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 11 | Auburn | N | L 61–79 | +7.5 | L−10.5 | 159.0 | U140 | 85.6 | 110.8 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | Georgia | H | L 96–102 | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 164.5 | O198 | 121.1 | 128.7 | 79.3 |
| Mar 3 | #5Florida | A | L 74–108 | +21.0 | L−13.0 | 160.5 | O182 | 98.6 | 143.9 | 75.1 |
| Feb 28 | Missouri | H | L 64–88 | +1.0 | L−23.0 | 154.5 | U152 | 93.0 | 127.9 | 68.8 |
| Feb 25 | #17Alabama | A | L 75–100 | +12.5 | L−12.5 | 175.5 | U175 | 98.8 | 131.7 | 75.9 |
| Feb 21 | South Carolina | A | L 89–97 | −1.0 | L−9.0 | 152.0 | O186 | 122.7 | 133.7 | 72.5 |
| Feb 18 | Auburn | H | W 91–85 | +5.5 | W+11.5 | 155.0 | O176 | 135.0 | 126.1 | 67.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeXavierMississippi St
Efficiency
109.9
113.2
97.9
102.3
76.3
70.5
-9.7
-11.3
Shooting
57.2%
59.9%
67.8%
61.2%
27.5%
38.7%
61.4%
73.1%
34.8%
40.8%
Ball control & glass
16.1%
16.8%
24.5%
19.2%
33.0%
47.1%
25.5%
23.1%
10.6%
10.3%
5.8%
6.0%
Style
39.8%
39.3%
58.6%
46.9%
23.8%
13.6%
68.3%
55.0%
47.6%
48.6%
Roster
3.30
2.87
6'7.4"
6'5.9"
28.6%
21.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputXavier
Returning minutes: 28.6%Returning production: 31.7%
Lost
- Malik Messina-Moore 33.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to Illinois St
- Tre Carroll 30.7 mpg, 17.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Roddie Anderson 23.8 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to Seton Hall
- All Wright 22.2 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to LMU
- Isaiah Walker 16.5 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Pape N'Diaye 8.2 mpg, 1.8 ppg · transferred to Kansas St
Added
- Chance Westry from UAB · 30.5 mpg, 15.5 ppg last season
- Nikos Chitikoudis from Robert Morris · 25.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Rolyns Aligbe from S Illinois · 24.4 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Tru Washington from Miami · 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Ruben Dominguez from Texas A&M · 23.4 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Mike Nwoko from LSU · 21.9 mpg, 13.4 ppg last season
Returns 29% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Mississippi St
Returning minutes: 21.0%Returning production: 26.2%
Lost
- Jayden Epps 25.5 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shawn Jones Jr. 25.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ja'Borri McGhee 22.1 mpg, 8.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jamarion Davis-Fleming 20.3 mpg, 3.7 ppg · transferred to Alabama
- Quincy Ballard 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Achor Achor 17.7 mpg, 6.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Kimani Hamilton from UNLV · 29.3 mpg, 12.8 ppg last season
- RJ Johnson from Kennesaw St · 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg last season
- Tajuan Simpkins from Seton Hall · 25.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- ND Okafor from Washington St · 23.2 mpg, 11.0 ppg last season
- Kendyl Sanders from Utah · 20.1 mpg, 5.2 ppg last season
- Thomas Bassong from Florida St · 19.3 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3.5→+4.5-115 | 165.5→161.5o-112 u-108 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +1.5→+3.5-105 | 164.5→161.5o-110 u-110 | +146 | -176 |
| BetMGM | +3.5-102 | 164.5→162.5o+100 u-120 | +150 | -185 |
| BetRivers | +3.5→+4.5-114 | 166.5→161.5o-110 u-113 | +163 | -205 |
| Caesars | +3.5→+4-110 | 164.5→161.5o-110 u-110 | +152 | -180 |
| Fanatics | +1.5→+4-110 | 164.5→161.5o-110 u-110 | +150 | -180 |
| BetOnline | +4-110 | 164→161.5o-105 u-115 | +153 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3.5→+4.5-115 | 165.5→161.5o-110 u-110 | +145 | -170 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5→+4.5-115 | 165.5→161.5o-110 u-110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock | +3.5→+4.5-110 | 165.5→161.5o-110 u-110 | +165 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +2.5→+4.5-108 | 162.5o+113 u-117 | +156 | -163 |
| Polymarket | +3.5+108 | 161.5o-104 u+100 | +156 | -163 |
| Novig | +1.5→— | 161.5o-102 u-102 | +160 | -163 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
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- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
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- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
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- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
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- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.