Stanford Cardinal vs UNLV Rebels basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Non-conferenceCBSSNThomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Stanford
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #84
@
UNLV
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #137
Live
73.277.6
Projected score
STAN win 35%UNLV win 65%
MarketClose
Spread
STAN −1.0
open STAN −0.5
Total
152.5
open 150.75
Our line
UNLV −4.4
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
UNLVrated 7.9 above average
+7.9
Stanfordrated 6.9 above average
−6.9
Home court
+3.4
Our line
UNLV −4.4
◂ Stanford sideUNLV side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward UNLV. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UNLV is the faster team (72.5, #117 of 365) and Stanford the slower (69.9, #208). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.7
per team, 40 min
Market total
152.5
Market close · open 150.75
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#217
Stanford
73.2#56
UNLV
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
UNLV −4.4
Four factors −1.9 · not in these stats +6.3
From the four factors
UNLV has the ball+3.8
Stanford has the ball+5.6
UNLV has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.4% #22 · STAN allows 29.1% #137+2.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 53.8% #29 · STAN allows 41.5% #247 · FT 75.0% #92+1.3
✗Coughs it upTO% 15.9% #105 · STAN forces 21.0% #79 · ~14 turnovers−0.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 54.2% #109 · STAN allows 46.6% #97+0.3
Stanford has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.9% #70 · UNLV allows 57.3% #307+7.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.5% #225 · UNLV allows 22.0% #18−2.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 30.3% #265 · UNLV allows 39.1% #220 · FT 88.7% #4+1.0
✗Coughs it upTO% 16.7% #134 · UNLV forces 20.0% #102 · ~13 turnovers−0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootStanfordoffense vsUNLVdefense
Share of shots by zone
Stanford shoots
43.8
11.1
5.2
39.9
UNLV allows
46.8
2.8
11.9
38.5
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 70.1%#43 | 66.7%#297 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.3%#184 | 0.0%#1 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 62.5%#17 | 38.5%#198 | 36.0% |
| Three | 31.8%#195 | 37.2%#282 | 32.4% |
UNLVoffense vsStanforddefense
Share of shots by zone
UNLV shoots
47.4
12.9
9.5
30.2
Stanford allows
38.6
11.4
15.7
34.3
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.8%#121 | 53.7%#107 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#188 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.5%#89 | 54.5%#331 | 36.0% |
| Three | 36.1%#101 | 23.6%#20 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineStanford
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#165 of 365
Off reb %
29.5%
#225
Def reb %
70.9%
#137
Turnover %
16.7%
#134
Forced TO %
21.0%
#79
FT rate
30.3%
#265
FT allowed
41.5%
#247
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers+2.1
Foul shots drawn−1.8
Foul shots allowed−1.1
UNLV
+13.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#24 of 365
Off reb %
41.4%
#22
Def reb %
78.0%
#18
Turnover %
15.9%
#105
Forced TO %
20.0%
#102
FT rate
53.8%
#29
FT allowed
39.1%
#220
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.3
Defensive rebounding+3.3
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.4
Foul shots drawn+4.3
Foul shots allowed−0.4
UNLV has more extra scoring chances per game: +13.5 (#24 of 365) to Stanford’s +0.5 (#165).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notStanford2026-27 numbers · last game: Rice, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 35.3 | 37 | — | Started last | 22.7 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 75.8% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 87.5% | 26.2% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 33.0 | 32 | — | Started last | 11.7 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 53.3% | 18.2% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 22.3% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 24.3 | 29 | — | Started last | 8.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 47.9% | 33.3% | 5.0 | 100.0% | 22.1% | |
| 24 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-1 | 24.3 | 25 | — | Bench | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 76.5% | 60.0% | 3.3 | 100.0% | 18.9% | |
| 52 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 22.0 | 14 | — | Started last | 9.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 63.9% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 85.7% | 21.3% | |
| 21 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-2 | 21.3 | 15 | — | Started last | 6.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 38.1% | 26.7% | 5.0 | 66.7% | 26.8% | |
| 34 | C | Jr | 7'0" | 3-0 | 17.3 | 29 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 18.2% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 6 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 16.0% | |
| 33 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 11 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 19.8% | |
| 2 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 0 | — | Missed last 2 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 27.7% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 1 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 26.3% | |
| 9 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 4.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 26.2% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesStanford
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
1-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total +0.3
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Rice | H | W 91–73 | −18.5 | L−0.5 | 145.5 | O164 | 120.2 | 96.4 | 75.7 |
| Nov 6 | Oakland | H | W 81–63 | −15.0 | W+3.0 | 146.5 | U144 | 116.5 | 90.6 | 69.5 |
| Nov 2 | E Washington | H | W 74–65 | −13.5 | L−4.5 | 154.0 | U139 | 114.7 | 100.7 | 64.5 |
| Apr 2 | West Virginia | N | L 77–82 OT | +2.0 | L−3.0 | 135.5 | O159 | 104.9 | 111.7 | 73.4 |
| Mar 10 | Pitt | N | L 63–64 | −5.0 | L−6.0 | 136.5 | U127 | 107.6 | 109.3 | 58.6 |
| Mar 7 | NC State | A | W 85–84 | +9.0 | W+10.0 | 152.5 | O169 | 123.7 | 122.3 | 68.7 |
| Mar 4 | Notre Dame | A | W 86–78 | −1.0 | W+7.0 | 147.0 | O164 | 135.5 | 122.9 | 63.5 |
| Feb 28 | SMU | H | W 95–75 | −1.0 | W+19.0 | 154.5 | O170 | 147.6 | 116.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 25 | Pitt | H | W 75–67 | −8.0 | P0.0 | 138.5 | O142 | 122.1 | 109.1 | 61.4 |
| Feb 21 | California | A | L 66–72 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 148.0 | U138 | 95.2 | 103.8 | 69.3 |
UNLV
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +10.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Samford | H | W 88–79 | −12.0 | L−3.0 | 158.0 | O167 | 115.6 | 103.8 | 76.1 |
| Nov 3 | N Arizona | H | W 89–77 | −21.0 | L−9.0 | 153.5 | O166 | 129.4 | 111.9 | 68.8 |
| Mar 22 | Tulsa | A | L 66–77 | +5.0 | L−6.0 | 161.5 | U143 | 100.3 | 117.0 | 65.8 |
| Mar 17 | UC Irvine | A | W 75–72 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 101.3 | 97.3 | 74.0 |
| Mar 12 | Utah State | N | L 60–80 | +8.5 | L−11.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 86.0 | 114.6 | 69.8 |
| Mar 11 | Wyoming | N | W 73–70 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 153.0 | U143 | 111.3 | 106.7 | 65.6 |
| Mar 6 | San Diego St | A | L 86–89 | +9.0 | W+6.0 | 153.5 | O175 | 116.6 | 120.7 | 73.7 |
| Mar 3 | Utah State | H | W 92–65 | +7.5 | W+34.5 | 156.5 | O157 | 130.9 | 92.5 | 70.3 |
| Feb 28 | Nevada | H | W 85–83 OT | +1.0 | W+3.0 | 151.5 | O168 | 112.7 | 110.0 | 75.4 |
| Feb 25 | Grand Canyon | A | L 67–80 | +7.5 | L−5.5 | 150.5 | U147 | 96.4 | 115.1 | 69.5 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeStanfordUNLV
Efficiency
109.2
109.9
101.8
107.6
69.9
73.2
-5.8
-7.1
Shooting
56.9%
54.2%
62.4%
54.2%
31.8%
36.1%
88.7%
75.0%
30.3%
53.8%
Ball control & glass
16.7%
15.9%
21.0%
20.0%
29.5%
41.4%
29.1%
22.0%
8.6%
6.9%
8.3%
3.6%
Style
37.7%
30.3%
50.4%
49.7%
9.3%
23.2%
48.3%
31.0%
33.9%
26.5%
Roster
2.46
2.54
6'6.2"
6'5.9"
16.0%
23.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputStanford
Returning minutes: 17.0%Returning production: 14.8%
Lost
- Ebuka Okorie 33.0 mpg, 21.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Benny Gealer 29.5 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to UIC
- Ryan Agarwal 21.6 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Loyola Chicago
- AJ Rohosy 20.5 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jeremy Dent-Smith 20.1 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to Saint Mary's
- Chisom Okpara 14.7 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Christian Bliss from Delaware · 39.8 mpg, 16.7 ppg last season
- Nick Townsend from Yale · 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg last season
- Austin Maurer from Seattle U · 17.9 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Aziz Olajuwon no D1 minutes last season
- Myles Jones no D1 minutes last season
- Julius Price no D1 minutes last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
UNLV
Returning minutes: 23.3%Returning production: 22.3%
Lost
- Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn 34.2 mpg, 20.7 ppg · transferred to Texas Tech
- Kimani Hamilton 29.3 mpg, 12.8 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
- Howie Fleming Jr. 26.6 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Walter Brown 19.1 mpg, 3.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jacob Bannarbie 13.9 mpg, 4.6 ppg · transferred to Providence
- Emmanuel Stephen 10.7 mpg, 2.4 ppg · transferred to CSU Northridge
Added
- Dontrez Williams from Lindenwood · 28.2 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
- AJ Storr from Ole Miss · 26.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg last season
- MJ Thomas from LSU N Orleans · 25.9 mpg, 10.5 ppg last season
- Tyler Harris from Vanderbilt · 10.6 mpg, 4.6 ppg last season
- Cam Miles from Florida St · 10.6 mpg, 4.1 ppg last season
- Sebastian Mack from Missouri · 8.9 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +1.5-118 | 150.5→152.5o-105 u-115 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5-120 | 151.5→152.5o-110 u-110 | -104 | -115 |
| BetMGM | -1.5→+1.5-118 | 150.5→152.5o-105 u-115 | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | -0.5-108 | 150.5→152.5o-112 u-112 | -108 | -115 |
| Caesars | +1.5→0-110 | 150.5→152.5o-110 u-110 | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | +1-110 | 151→152.5o-110 u-110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline | 0→+1-107 | 150.5→153o+103 u-123 | -102 | -118 |
| Bovada | +1.5→+1-105 | 151.5→152.5o-110 u-110 | +100 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5→+1.5-120 | 150.5→151.5o-120 u+100 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock | +1.5-125 | 150.5→152.5o-110 u-110 | -110 | -115 |
| Kalshi | +1.5-113 | 150.5→152.5o+100 u-104 | +104 | -108 |
| Polymarket | +1.5-108 | 152.5o+100 u-104 | +108 | -113 |
| Novig | +1.5-111 | 151.5o-106 u+104 | +106 | -108 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 7 | 2025-26 | UNLV 75 – 74 Stanford |
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- UL Monroe at Arizona St · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.