Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Oregon State Beavers basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:30 PM ET · Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR
Non-conferenceYouTubeGill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR
Miss Valley St
0-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #365
@
Oregon St
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #102
Live
62.896.2
Projected score
MVSU win 0%ORST win 100%
MarketClose
Spread
ORST −35.0
open ORST −33.5
Total
156.5
open 154.5
Our line
ORST −33.4
Our total
159.0
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 9:27 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Oregon Strated 9.5 above average
+9.5
Miss Valley Strated 20.5 below average
+20.5
Home court
+3.4
Our line
ORST −33.4
◂ Miss Valley St sideOregon St side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Oregon Sthigher-scoring games
+7.6
Miss Valley Sthigher-scoring games
+0.2
Our line
159.0
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Oregon St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Oregon St is the faster team (74.1, #81 of 365) and Miss Valley St the slower (67.3, #282). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
156.5
Market close · open 154.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#264
Miss Valley St
72.0#87
Oregon St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ORST −33.4
Four factors 25.6Not in these stats 7.8
From the four factors
Oregon St has the ball+17.5
Miss Valley St has the ball−8.1
Oregon St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.5% #34 · MVSU allows 61.2% #348+10.9
✓Wins second chancesOR% 34.0% #139 · MVSU allows 45.3% #354+3.7
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.5% #41 · MVSU forces 16.8% #209 · ~10 turnovers+3.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 46.7% #65 · MVSU allows 10.0% #2 · FT 84.9% #8−0.1
Miss Valley St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.7% #310 · ORST allows 44.0% #55−7.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.3% #161 · ORST forces 13.9% #310 · ~11 turnovers+2.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 26.3% #272 · ORST allows 28.8% #130−2.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 33.9% #214 · ORST allows 21.2% #15 · FT 70.7% #167−1.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootMiss Valley Stoffense vsOregon Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Miss Valley St shoots
37.5
11.7
18.8
32.0
Oregon St allows
30.1
6.4
23.7
39.9
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.5%#108 | 48.1%#49 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 13.3%#340 | 36.4%#166 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 12.5%#337 | 46.3%#287 | 36.0% |
| Three | 31.6%#200 | 28.7%#99 | 32.4% |
Oregon Stoffense vsMiss Valley Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Oregon St shoots
35.4
10.1
6.3
48.1
Miss Valley St allows
24.5
4.4
4.4
66.7
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 73.2%#26 | 74.4%#346 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 37.5%#167 | 57.1%#311 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 30.0%#237 | 28.6%#94 | 36.0% |
| Three | 38.4%#62 | 37.4%#286 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineMiss Valley St
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#176 of 365
Off reb %
26.3%
#272
Def reb %
54.7%
#354
Turnover %
17.3%
#161
Forced TO %
16.8%
#209
FT rate
33.9%
#214
FT allowed
10.0%
#2
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.7
Defensive rebounding−4.5
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+7.2
Oregon St
+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#60 of 365
Off reb %
34.0%
#139
Def reb %
71.2%
#130
Turnover %
13.5%
#41
Forced TO %
13.9%
#310
FT rate
46.7%
#65
FT allowed
21.2%
#15
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+3.3
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn+2.5
Foul shots allowed+4.2
Oregon St has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#60 of 365) to Miss Valley St’s −0.2 (#176).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notMiss Valley St2026-27 numbers · last game: Oregon, Nov 11
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 35.7 | 40 | — | Started last | 10.7 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 37.1% | 11.1% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 23.7% | |
| 21 | PF | Jr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 31.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 11.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 60.0% | 42.9% | 4.7 | 100.0% | 19.5% | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'5" | 3-3 | 28.7 | 33 | — | Started last | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 44.7% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 20.0% | 18.1% | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-2 | 28.3 | 32 | — | Started last | 11.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 40.3% | 75.0% | 1.3 | 75.0% | 29.9% | |
| 1 | PG | Jr | 5'11" | 3-1 | 24.3 | 16 | — | Bench | 7.3 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 37.5% | 20.0% | 3.3 | 80.0% | 26.3% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 3-2 | 20.7 | 21 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 57.9% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 69.2% | 29.1% | |
| 20 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-1 | 18.3 | 17 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 39.3% | 25.0% | 4.0 | — | 15.1% | |
| 9 | C | Fr | 7'0" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 9 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 71.4% | 21.6% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesMiss Valley St
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
0-0
Road
2-1
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +10.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-2
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −2.3
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | Oregon | A | L 66–100 | +33.5 | L−0.5 | 150.0 | O166 | 98.3 | 148.9 | 67.2 |
| Nov 9 | Washington | A | L 64–77 | +31.5 | W+18.5 | 153.0 | U141 | 96.8 | 116.4 | 66.1 |
| Nov 6 | Oklahoma | A | L 57–84 | +40.5 | W+13.5 | 152.0 | U141 | 82.9 | 122.2 | 68.7 |
| Mar 9 | Grambling | N | L 52–77 | +13.5 | L−11.5 | 137.0 | U129 | 78.5 | 116.2 | 66.2 |
| Mar 5 | Jackson St | A | L 77–85 | +11.5 | W+3.5 | 145.0 | O162 | 116.7 | 128.8 | 66.0 |
| Mar 3 | Alcorn St | A | L 64–67 | +9.5 | W+6.5 | 139.0 | U131 | 99.1 | 103.7 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | AR-Pine Bluff | A | W 70–69 | +14.0 | W+15.0 | 147.5 | U139 | 100.4 | 99.0 | 69.7 |
| Feb 23 | Grambling | A | L 62–83 | +16.0 | L−5.0 | 137.0 | O145 | 78.6 | 105.2 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | Texas Southern | H | W 72–71 | +11.5 | W+12.5 | 143.5 | U143 | 105.3 | 103.8 | 68.4 |
| Feb 19 | Prairie View | H | L 62–72 | +9.0 | L−1.0 | 153.5 | U134 | 91.3 | 106.0 | 67.9 |
Oregon St
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +7.8
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
3-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +8.0
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | E Washington | H | W 94–84 | −17.0 | L−7.0 | 163.0 | O178 | 123.7 | 110.5 | 76.0 |
| Nov 6 | CA Baptist | H | W 96–68 | −20.5 | W+7.5 | 157.5 | O164 | 144.5 | 102.4 | 66.4 |
| Nov 2 | Weber St | H | W 102–61 | −18.0 | W+23.0 | 160.5 | O163 | 127.6 | 76.3 | 79.9 |
| Mar 9 | #12Gonzaga | N | L 56–65 | +20.5 | W+11.5 | 145.0 | U121 | 88.7 | 102.9 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | San Francisco | N | W 78–77 | +3.5 | W+4.5 | 145.5 | O155 | 118.1 | 116.6 | 66.0 |
| Feb 28 | Santa Clara | A | L 72–93 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 153.0 | O165 | 105.2 | 135.8 | 68.5 |
| Feb 25 | San Diego | H | W 92–82 OT | −6.5 | W+3.5 | 144.0 | O174 | 123.8 | 110.3 | 74.3 |
| Feb 21 | Pepperdine | H | W 83–73 | −9.0 | W+1.0 | 148.5 | O156 | 115.3 | 101.4 | 72.0 |
| Feb 15 | Seattle U | A | L 50–60 | +7.0 | L−3.0 | 136.0 | U110 | 78.0 | 93.6 | 64.1 |
| Feb 12 | San Francisco | A | W 90–63 | +9.0 | W+36.0 | 141.0 | O153 | 148.3 | 103.8 | 60.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMiss Valley StOregon St
Efficiency
93.9
111.4
117.1
105.3
69.2
72.0
6.7
-7.3
Shooting
42.7%
59.5%
40.4%
61.2%
31.6%
38.4%
70.7%
84.9%
33.9%
46.7%
Ball control & glass
17.3%
13.5%
16.8%
13.9%
26.3%
34.0%
45.3%
28.8%
12.9%
9.9%
11.4%
5.1%
Style
33.3%
46.7%
44.9%
37.7%
14.4%
14.4%
43.8%
57.0%
28.0%
43.5%
Roster
2.81
2.56
6'4.7"
6'5.9"
0.0%
16.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMiss Valley St
Returning minutes: 5.1%Returning production: 2.9%
Lost
- Mike James 35.6 mpg, 20.8 ppg · transferred to Alabama St
- Patrick Punch 27.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Daniel Mayfield 25.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- X'Zaevion Barnett 23.3 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mussa Mzein 17.5 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lamont Sams 15.4 mpg, 4.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tarique Foster from UAlbany · 14.0 mpg, 4.0 ppg last season
- Tory James Jr. from Bakersfield · 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
- Caleb Cameron no D1 minutes last season
- Tianhao Wu no D1 minutes last season
- Harvey Wilson Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- AJ Abrams no D1 minutes last season
Returns 5% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Oregon St
Returning minutes: 16.8%Returning production: 21.5%
Lost
- Isaiah Sy 28.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to San Diego St
- Dez White 26.9 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Temple
- Johan Munch 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg · transferred to SMU
- Olavi Suutela 17.5 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to UC San Diego
- Jorge Diaz Graham 17.4 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Keziah Ekissi 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg · transferred to CSU Northridge
Added
- Jackson Rasmussen from Idaho · 30.1 mpg, 13.3 ppg last season
- DeShawn Gory from Fresno St · 29.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg last season
- Daniel Freitag from Buffalo · 23.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg last season
- Legend Smiley from San Francisco · 21.3 mpg, 8.1 ppg last season
- Chris Johnson from UCF · 15.3 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
- Dennis Evans from Grand Canyon · 6.6 mpg, 2.1 ppg last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -33.5→-34.5-112 | 153.5→157.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -33.5→-34.5-112 | 152.5→156.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -33.5→-34.5-110 | 154.5→157.5o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5→-35.5-104 | 154.5→157.5o-114 u-108 | — | — |
| Caesars | -33.5→-34.5-110 | 154.5→157.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -33.5→-34.5-115 | 154.5→157o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -33.5→-34.5-110 | 154.5→157.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33.5→-35-105 | 154.5→157o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -32.5→-34.5-115 | 153.5→157.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -33.5→-34.5-120 | 154.5→157.5o-110 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 153.5→158.5o+108 u-113 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -33.5→-34.5-108 | 154.5→156.5o-108 u+104 | — | — |
| Novig | — | 154.5→157.5o-102 u+100 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.