CBB Reports
Nightly reads on every D-I team: who wins the extra possessions, who is shooting above or below expectation, who is on a run and whose rotation is changing.
Shot Volume Report
Tonight's games: which team should get more scoring chances from rebounding, turnovers and foul shots.
Tonight's games
both teams' shot-volume grade| Game | Tip (ET) | Grade | Off reb % | Def reb % | Turnover % | Forced TO % | FT rate | FT allowed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-I average | 0.0 | 31.5 | 68.2 | 18.2 | 18.0 | 37.3 | 37.4 | ||
| SIUE | 8:00 PM | −10.9#330 | 30.6 | 67.9 | 18.2 | 15.3 | 19.5 | 52.3 | 27.3DUKE |
| at Duke | +16.4#8 | 42.2 | 73.7 | 18.4 | 24.2 | 57.5 | 31.6 | ||
| AR-Pine Bluff | 10:30 PM | −28.3#364 | 29.2 | 50.0 | 37.2 | 14.0 | 31.4 | 51.0 | 25.2CBU |
| at CA Baptist | −3.1#233 | 24.8 | 61.5 | 18.7 | 17.2 | 33.7 | 25.0 | ||
| Prairie View | 7:00 PM | −13.6#348 | 26.0 | 60.6 | 17.7 | 14.9 | 34.2 | 62.3 | 22.5VAN |
| at Vanderbilt | +9.0#61 | 41.2 | 78.3 | 14.4 | 19.7 | 31.6 | 37.4 | ||
| Bryant | 6:00 PM | −6.1#275 | 27.1 | 70.6 | 24.3 | 19.2 | 30.4 | 37.7 | 20.7RUTG |
| at Rutgers | +14.7#13 | 36.8 | 75.3 | 13.4 | 20.4 | 49.2 | 28.4 | ||
| Milwaukee | 8:00 PM | −2.1#213 | 28.0 | 76.2 | 18.9 | 14.9 | 34.4 | 38.0 | 20.2TCU |
| at TCU | +18.1#4 | 42.5 | 63.2 | 14.7 | 27.8 | 57.6 | 32.0 | ||
| Mount St Marys | 7:00 PM | −5.6#267 | 24.7 | 63.5 | 19.4 | 18.1 | 31.5 | 35.1 | 18.9VT |
| at Virginia Tech | +13.3#25 | 41.4 | 68.6 | 12.3 | 28.8 | 40.6 | 48.1 | ||
| UL Monroe | 9:00 PM | −6.9#283 | 37.4 | 63.5 | 23.3 | 16.0 | 35.7 | 44.1 | 17.5ASU |
| at Arizona St | +10.7#41 | 41.6 | 73.6 | 14.5 | 16.0 | 37.5 | 21.3 | ||
| Columbia | 7:00 PM | +5.4#102 | 40.5 | 69.8 | 16.0 | 20.6 | 25.4 | 31.5 | 16.7COLU |
| at Bucknell | −11.3#333 | 21.2 | 44.5 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 31.1 | 29.1 | ||
| Texas Southern | 8:00 PM | −5.3#265 | 24.7 | 55.9 | 17.9 | 18.6 | 53.4 | 51.6 | 16.3MUR |
| at Murray St | +11.0#38 | 40.0 | 70.2 | 18.6 | 28.1 | 45.5 | 43.1 | ||
| Chattanooga | 7:00 PM | −14.3#355 | 32.9 | 57.1 | 19.8 | 15.7 | 30.1 | 62.0 | 15.7ELON |
| at Elon | +1.4#159 | 36.5 | 72.0 | 19.8 | 17.4 | 32.7 | 32.6 | ||
| UIC | 10:00 PM | +15.5#9 | 38.7 | 63.5 | 12.7 | 26.8 | 41.2 | 24.1 | 14.7UIC |
| at Saint Mary's | +0.8#164 | 29.8 | 73.6 | 12.8 | 18.1 | 27.2 | 43.8 | ||
| FDU | 8:00 PM | −5.8#269 | 25.0 | 53.2 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 29.0 | 24.4 | 14.3OU |
| at Oklahoma | +8.5#64 | 38.7 | 66.0 | 16.4 | 22.3 | 36.1 | 26.6 | ||
| North Alabama | 5:00 PM | −7.9#295 | 24.1 | 73.3 | 22.5 | 14.7 | 42.7 | 49.6 | 14.0MIA |
| at Miami | +6.2#93 | 35.2 | 74.6 | 16.2 | 19.8 | 30.8 | 30.6 | ||
| Northern Iowa | 7:00 PM | −8.7#305 | 25.4 | 60.9 | 15.6 | 16.3 | 29.7 | 48.3 | 14.0MSU |
| at Michigan St | +5.3#103 | 41.1 | 71.9 | 17.8 | 18.7 | 52.6 | 52.0 | ||
| Alcorn St | 8:00 PM | −17.0#362 | 35.3 | 53.7 | 26.0 | 15.3 | 35.0 | 57.9 | 13.7TAR |
| at Tarleton St | −3.3#237 | 33.3 | 55.0 | 22.6 | 17.6 | 75.0 | 60.0 | ||
| C Arkansas | 8:00 PM | −1.7#207 | 26.8 | 65.5 | 20.9 | 18.1 | 37.5 | 27.7 | 13.0ARK |
| at Arkansas | +11.2#36 | 44.7 | 71.6 | 17.1 | 20.4 | 41.6 | 29.3 | ||
| Stanford | 9:00 PM | +0.5#165 | 29.5 | 70.9 | 16.7 | 21.0 | 30.3 | 41.5 | 12.9UNLV |
| at UNLV | +13.5#24 | 41.4 | 78.0 | 15.9 | 20.0 | 53.8 | 39.1 | ||
| Ball State | 9:00 PM | −3.0#232 | 32.9 | 72.5 | 20.8 | 17.3 | 45.1 | 54.6 | 12.0SMU |
| at SMU | +9.0#59 | 33.7 | 72.5 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 57.1 | 32.4 | ||
| Wright St | 8:00 PM | +1.6#155 | 39.1 | 65.1 | 17.8 | 16.4 | 42.3 | 38.8 | 11.4WRST |
| at Samford | −9.8#315 | 15.6 | 67.6 | 14.5 | 17.1 | 30.6 | 55.2 | ||
| N Arizona | 7:00 PM | −13.4#347 | 28.2 | 58.8 | 24.6 | 9.0 | 42.1 | 35.6 | 10.8UK |
| at Kentucky | −2.6#224 | 34.0 | 68.3 | 17.6 | 14.2 | 26.9 | 31.9 |
How to read this
A team's scoring chances come from its shots plus its trips to the foul line (each foul shot attempt counts as 0.44 of a shot). The grade is how many more, or fewer, of those chances a team gets per game than an average D-I team, because of six things that have nothing to do with shot-making:
- Offensive rebounding. How often a team grabs its own misses.
- Defensive rebounding. How often a team ends the opponent's possession after a miss.
- Turnovers. A giveaway ends a possession with no shot.
- Forced turnovers. The same math for the opponent's giveaways.
- FT rate. Foul shots attempted per 100 field-goal attempts.
- FT allowed. The same, for the foul shots the opponent gets.
Add the six pieces and you have the grade: plus means more scoring chances than a typical team, minus means fewer. The gap is the difference between the two teams' grades, so a bigger gap means the chances are tilted further toward one side. Each rate cell is shaded by where it ranks among all D-I teams: green is better than most, red is worse. For turnovers and FT allowed a low number is the good one, so it shows green. The small # beside a grade is that team's rank among D-I teams (1 is the most extra chances).
Data note. Numbers are season-to-date through games played before Fri, Nov 13, D-I games only. Teams with fewer games played move more from one night to the next. The grade describes how each team has played so far; it is not a forecast of tonight's score.
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CBB Reports collects four nightly reads. Shot Volume ranks tonight's games by the gap in extra scoring chances each team earns from offensive and defensive rebounding, turnovers and free throws. 3P Luck compares each team's recent 3-point shooting, and its opponents', with what its roster's shooters and the D-I average would predict. Streaks lists teams on long runs against the closing spread and total, with the honest caveat that ten games is a small sample. Rotations tracks who is playing more, who is playing less and who sat, from competitive minutes with garbage time removed.
What these numbers mean: model calibration.