Northern Iowa Panthers vs Michigan State Spartans basketball final score
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Non-conferenceFS1Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Northern Iowa
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #103
@
5Michigan St
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #5
Final
72106
Final score
Projected 60.8 – 86.6
UNI win 1%MSU win 99%
MarketClose
Spread
MSU −27.5
open MSU −29.5
Total
155.0
open 155.5
Our line
MSU −25.8
Our total
147.4
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 6:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Michigan Strated 20.8 above average
+20.8
Northern Iowarated 1.7 below average
+1.7
Home court
+3.4
Our line
MSU −25.8
◂ Northern Iowa sideMichigan St side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Michigan Stlower-scoring games
−1.6
Northern Iowalower-scoring games
−2.3
Our line
147.4
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Michigan St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Michigan St is the faster team (72.9, #103 of 365) and Northern Iowa the slower (70.7, #184). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.3
per team, 40 min
Market total
155.0
Market close · open 155.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#249
Northern Iowa
71.2#130
Michigan St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
MSU −25.8
Four factors 14.8Not in these stats 11.0
From the four factors
Michigan St has the ball+14.8
Northern Iowa has the ball0.0
Michigan St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.9% #43 · UNI allows 56.8% #299+8.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.1% #28 · UNI allows 39.1% #318+4.5
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.8% #185 · UNI forces 16.3% #231 · ~12 turnovers+1.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 52.6% #35 · UNI allows 48.3% #305 · FT 65.2% #274+0.9
Northern Iowa has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 25.4% #288 · MSU allows 28.1% #114−2.5
✓Gets to the lineFTR 29.7% #271 · MSU allows 52.0% #329 · FT 82.9% #13+1.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.6% #95 · MSU forces 18.7% #143 · ~12 turnovers+1.0
✓Shoots it welleFG% 60.6% #24 · MSU allows 39.3% #15+0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootNorthern Iowaoffense vs#5Michigan Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Northern Iowa shoots
44.0
7.0
7.0
42.0
Michigan St allows
39.8
7.5
12.0
40.6
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 70.5%#40 | 39.6%#11 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 14.3%#334 | 30.0%#110 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 28.6%#251 | 25.0%#65 | 36.0% |
| Three | 39.6%#49 | 25.4%#41 | 32.4% |
#5Michigan Stoffense vsNorthern Iowadefense
Share of shots by zone
Michigan St shoots
39.3
8.9
13.3
38.5
Northern Iowa allows
37.5
2.1
3.1
57.3
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 67.9%#61 | 61.1%#219 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#78 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 27.8%#262 | 33.3%#143 | 36.0% |
| Three | 38.8%#55 | 36.7%#272 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineNorthern Iowa
−8.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#305 of 365
Off reb %
25.4%
#288
Def reb %
60.9%
#318
Turnover %
15.6%
#95
Forced TO %
16.3%
#231
FT rate
29.7%
#271
FT allowed
48.3%
#305
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.0
Defensive rebounding−2.4
Ball security+1.9
Forcing turnovers−1.2
Foul shots drawn−2.0
Foul shots allowed−2.8
#5Michigan St
+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#103 of 365
Off reb %
41.1%
#28
Def reb %
71.9%
#114
Turnover %
17.8%
#185
Forced TO %
18.7%
#143
FT rate
52.6%
#35
FT allowed
52.0%
#329
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.2
Defensive rebounding+1.2
Ball security+0.3
Forcing turnovers+0.5
Foul shots drawn+4.0
Foul shots allowed−3.8
Michigan St has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#103 of 365) to Northern Iowa’s −8.7 (#305).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notNorthern Iowa2026-27 numbers · last game: Green Bay, Nov 10
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 30.0 | 35 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 60.4% | 29.4% | 5.7 | 66.7% | 15.7% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 29.7 | 33 | — | Started last | 19.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 50.0% | 30.8% | 4.3 | 82.6% | 35.1% | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-1 | 27.7 | 31 | — | Started last | 17.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 71.9% | 47.1% | 5.7 | 66.7% | 27.7% | |
| 31 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-2 | 23.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 15.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 77.3% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 92.3% | 24.4% | |
| 9 | G | So | 6'3" | 3-0 | 19.0 | 19 | — | Bench | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 40.0% | 1.7 | 0.0% | 18.1% | |
| 2 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-2 | 13.7 | 13 | — | Bench | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 44.1% | 16.7% | 2.0 | 75.0% | 23.7% | |
| 35 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 13.0 | 14 | — | Started last | 3.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 36.4% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.5% | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 3-1 | 11.3 | 12 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 21.4% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 50.0% | 13.8% | |
| 32 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 9 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 60.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 24.1% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 12.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 80.0% | 18.6% | |
| 7 | F | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 9.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 10.2% | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'8" | 1-0 | 13.0 | — | — | Missed last | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 20.7% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 3.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 62.5% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 27.6% | |
| 15 | G | Jr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 5.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 18.1% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameNorthern Iowa
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover 0.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +22.2
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Green Bay | H | W 89–76 | −3.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O165 | 134.1 | 114.5 | 66.4 |
| Nov 7 | Furman | A | L 83–98 | +5.5 | L−9.5 | 150.5 | O181 | 110.7 | 130.7 | 75.0 |
| Nov 3 | Cornell (IA) Rams | H | W 106–70 | — | — | — | — | 118.8 | 78.4 | 89.3 |
| Mar 20 | #5St John's | N | L 53–79 | +10.5 | L−15.5 | 133.5 | U132 | 84.0 | 125.2 | 63.1 |
| Mar 8 | UIC | N | W 84–69 | −3.0 | W+12.0 | 124.5 | O153 | 141.8 | 116.5 | 59.2 |
| Mar 7 | Bradley | N | W 73–69 | −4.5 | L−0.5 | 126.5 | O142 | 115.3 | 108.9 | 63.3 |
| Mar 6 | Illinois St | N | W 74–52 | −2.0 | W+20.0 | 129.5 | U126 | 118.9 | 83.5 | 62.3 |
| Mar 5 | Evansville | N | W 68–59 | −15.0 | L−6.0 | 128.5 | U127 | 108.3 | 94.0 | 62.8 |
| Mar 1 | Drake | A | W 75–53 | −4.0 | W+18.0 | 137.5 | U128 | 119.1 | 84.2 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Illinois St | H | L 69–71 | −5.0 | L−7.0 | 132.0 | O140 | 111.1 | 114.3 | 62.1 |
#5Michigan St
Against the spread
Season
3-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
3-0
avg cover +8.2
Covered 3 straight
Over / under
Season
2-1
Home
1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg vs total +1.2
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | #2Duke | N | W 79–73 | +7.5 | W+13.5 | 147.0 | O152 | 108.3 | 100.1 | 72.9 |
| Nov 5 | Toledo | H | W 91–61 | −26.0 | W+4.0 | 155.0 | U152 | 124.0 | 83.1 | 73.4 |
| Nov 2 | Quinnipiac | H | W 96–59 | −30.0 | W+7.0 | 153.5 | O155 | 132.6 | 81.5 | 72.4 |
| Mar 27 | #2UConn | N | L 63–67 | +2.0 | L−2.0 | 136.0 | U130 | 99.1 | 105.4 | 63.6 |
| Mar 21 | #6Louisville | N | W 77–69 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 115.0 | 103.1 | 66.9 |
| Mar 19 | #14N Dakota St | N | W 92–67 | −16.0 | W+9.0 | 144.5 | O159 | 126.4 | 92.0 | 72.8 |
| Mar 13 | UCLA | N | L 84–88 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 141.5 | O172 | 125.9 | 131.9 | 66.7 |
| Mar 8 | #3Michigan | A | L 80–90 | +10.5 | W+0.5 | 152.0 | O170 | 112.5 | 126.5 | 71.1 |
| Mar 5 | Rutgers | H | W 91–87 | −19.5 | L−15.5 | 142.0 | O178 | 126.1 | 120.6 | 72.1 |
| Mar 1 | Indiana | A | W 77–64 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 144.0 | U141 | 128.1 | 106.5 | 60.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeNorthern Iowa#5Michigan St
Efficiency
109.7
117.7
103.7
93.3
69.5
71.2
1.7
9.1
Shooting
60.6%
58.9%
61.4%
59.3%
39.6%
38.8%
82.9%
65.2%
29.7%
52.6%
Ball control & glass
15.6%
17.8%
16.3%
18.7%
25.4%
41.1%
39.1%
28.1%
8.5%
8.7%
7.1%
9.3%
Style
40.7%
38.3%
48.8%
45.1%
15.1%
25.6%
51.6%
63.3%
42.3%
41.2%
Roster
2.58
2.36
6'5.4"
6'6.6"
9.6%
60.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputNorthern Iowa
Returning minutes: 9.6%Returning production: 5.7%
Lost
- Trey Campbell 33.5 mpg, 13.7 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Leon Bond III 32.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg · transferred to Iowa State
- Ben Schwieger 27.8 mpg, 9.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Hornseth 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to Utah State
- Max Weisbrod 24.7 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to N Illinois
- Tristan Smith 16.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tate McCubbin from Austin Peay · 29.5 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
- Greyson Uelmen from North Dakota · 27.8 mpg, 16.8 ppg last season
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu from St Thomas · 20.7 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Carson Vis from W Michigan · 14.8 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
- Ian Smikle from Tulsa · 13.8 mpg, 3.1 ppg last season
- Will Gerdes no D1 minutes last season
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#5Michigan St
Returning minutes: 60.4%Returning production: 58.6%
Lost
- Jaxon Kohler 27.7 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to BYU
- Carson Cooper 26.7 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Divine Ugochukwu 10.1 mpg, 3.2 ppg · transferred to LSU
- Trey Fort 9.7 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Denham Wojcik 4.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Nick Sanders 0.7 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Anton Bonke from Charlotte · 25.6 mpg, 10.6 ppg last season
- Ethan Taylor no D1 minutes last season
- Julius Avent no D1 minutes last season
- Jasiah Jervis no D1 minutes last season
- Kaleb Glenn no D1 minutes last season
- Carlos Medlock Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 60% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (1 transferred).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -29.5→-27.5-105 | 155.5→154.5o-112 u-108 | — | +4000 |
| FanDuel | -29.5→-26.5-120 | 155.5→154.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -29.5→-27.5-105 | 155.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -29.5→-27.5-112 | 155.5→154.5o-107 u-115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -29.5→-27-110 | 155.5→155o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -29.5→-27.5-110 | 155.5→155o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -29.5→-27.5-110 | 155.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -29.5→-27-115 | 156.5→155o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -29.5→-27.5-105 | 155.5→154.5o-115 u-105 | — | +4000 |
| Hard Rock | -29.5→-27.5-110 | 155.5→153.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 156.5→154.5o-104 u+100 | — | +4900 |
| Polymarket | -29.5→-27.5+104 | 155.5→154.5o-108 u+100 | — | — |
| Novig | -29.5→— | 155.5→154.5o-104 u+100 | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.