UC San Diego Tritons vs Utah State Aggies basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 10:00 PM ET · Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
Non-conferenceCWDee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, UT
UC San Diego
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #113
@
Utah State
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #21
Live
70.484.1
Projected score
UCSD win 12%USU win 88%
MarketClose
Spread
USU −12.5
open USU −13.0
Total
158.5
open 154.5
Our line
USU −13.7
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 9:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Utah Staterated 16.4 above average
+16.4
UC San Diegorated 6.1 above average
−6.1
Home court
+3.4
Our line
USU −13.7
◂ UC San Diego sideUtah State side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Utah State. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Utah State is the faster team (75.0, #59 of 365) and UC San Diego the slower (67.1, #296). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.6
per team, 40 min
Market total
158.5
Market close · open 154.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.5#253
UC San Diego
72.6#68
Utah State
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
USU −13.7
Four factors 6.8Not in these stats 6.9
From the four factors
Utah State has the ball+6.9
UC San Diego has the ball+0.1
Utah State has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 60.8% #23 · UCSD allows 44.9% #64+3.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 36.4% #89 · UCSD allows 37.2% #295+2.7
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.0% #14 · UCSD forces 19.4% #124 · ~11 turnovers+2.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.7% #243 · UCSD allows 7.4% #1 · FT 74.2% #109−1.6
UC San Diego has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 11.9% #13 · USU forces 19.1% #132 · ~11 turnovers+2.6
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 15.4% #361 · USU allows 26.2% #51 · FT 60.0% #329−2.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 31.4% #195 · USU allows 27.6% #107−0.8
✓Shoots it welleFG% 57.7% #56 · USU allows 42.9% #44+0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUC San Diegooffense vsUtah Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
UC San Diego shoots
48.4
9.7
4.8
37.1
Utah State allows
39.8
6.3
14.1
39.8
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 70.0%#44 | 54.9%#127 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#322 | 25.0%#64 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#192 | 38.9%#207 | 36.0% |
| Three | 36.0%#102 | 21.7%#10 | 32.4% |
Utah Stateoffense vsUC San Diegodefense
Share of shots by zone
Utah State shoots
56.6
4.8
6.9
31.7
UC San Diego allows
37.7
4.9
0.0
57.4
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 63.4%#103 | 56.5%#153 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 14.3%#334 | 66.7%#342 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 60.0%#23 | — | 36.0% |
| Three | 38.0%#66 | 24.3%#29 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUC San Diego
+5.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#98 of 365
Off reb %
31.4%
#195
Def reb %
62.8%
#295
Turnover %
11.9%
#13
Forced TO %
19.4%
#124
FT rate
15.4%
#361
FT allowed
7.4%
#1
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding−1.8
Ball security+4.5
Forcing turnovers+1.0
Foul shots drawn−5.7
Foul shots allowed+7.8
Utah State
+9.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#49 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#89
Def reb %
72.4%
#107
Turnover %
12.0%
#14
Forced TO %
19.1%
#132
FT rate
31.7%
#243
FT allowed
26.2%
#51
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.7
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security+4.4
Forcing turnovers+0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed+2.9
Utah State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.7 (#49 of 365) to UC San Diego’s +5.7 (#98).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notUC San Diego2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 31.0 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 69.0% | 60.0% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 20.3% | Active | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 30.5 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 58.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 70.0% | 26.6% | Active | |
| 52 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 16.5 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 72.5% | 50.0% | 5.0 | 100.0% | 29.2% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 16.7% | 6.0 | 100.0% | 21.6% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 20.0 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 56.3% | 36.4% | 5.5 | 60.0% | 26.7% | Active | |
| 14 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45.8% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 24.8% | Active | |
| 33 | C | So | 7'0" | 2-2 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43.8% | 100.0% | 0.5 | 75.0% | 20.3% | Active | |
| 37 | F | So | 6'10" | 2-0 | 9.5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 0.0% | 12.5% | Active | |
| 20 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1.0 | — | 10.3% | Active | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'6" | 2-0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 33.2% | Active | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.3% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 32.3% | Active | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 14.2% | Missed last | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 19.4% | Missed last | |
| 4 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUC San Diego
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +5.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −5.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Fresno St | H | W 81–65 | −11.0 | W+5.0 | 151.0 | U146 | 120.8 | 96.9 | 67.1 |
| Nov 2 | Whittier Poets | H | W 100–75 | — | — | — | — | 126.3 | 94.7 | 79.2 |
| Mar 12 | CSU Northridge | N | L 70–80 | −2.0 | L−12.0 | 153.5 | U150 | 96.4 | 110.2 | 72.6 |
| Mar 11 | Cal Poly | N | W 72–69 | −4.5 | L−1.5 | 163.0 | U141 | 98.3 | 94.2 | 73.2 |
| Mar 7 | Santa Barbara | A | W 64–63 | +2.0 | W+3.0 | 142.0 | U127 | 102.5 | 100.9 | 62.4 |
| Mar 5 | Fullerton | A | L 71–75 | −3.0 | L−7.0 | 157.0 | U146 | 101.6 | 107.4 | 69.8 |
| Feb 28 | Cal Poly | H | W 80–64 | −7.5 | W+8.5 | 164.0 | U144 | 114.0 | 91.2 | 70.2 |
| Feb 26 | Bakersfield | H | W 84–72 | −14.5 | L−2.5 | 149.0 | O156 | 117.6 | 100.8 | 71.4 |
| Feb 21 | UC Irvine | A | W 71–69 | +4.5 | W+6.5 | 143.5 | U140 | 112.2 | 109.0 | 63.3 |
| Feb 14 | UC Riverside | H | W 72–66 | −11.0 | L−5.0 | 147.5 | U138 | 101.3 | 92.9 | 71.0 |
Utah State
Against the spread
Season
3-0
Home
3-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
3-0
avg cover +6.7
Covered 3 straight
Over / under
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg vs total +14.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Utah Tech | H | W 118–86 | −26.0 | W+6.0 | 156.5 | O204 | 146.9 | 107.1 | 80.3 |
| Nov 7 | Omaha | H | W 90–56 | −29.0 | W+5.0 | 153.5 | U146 | 123.6 | 76.9 | 72.8 |
| Nov 2 | Idaho St | H | W 94–58 | −27.0 | W+9.0 | 150.0 | O152 | 130.7 | 80.6 | 71.9 |
| Mar 22 | #1Arizona | N | L 66–78 | +11.5 | L−0.5 | 154.0 | U144 | 102.5 | 121.2 | 64.4 |
| Mar 20 | #8Villanova | N | W 86–76 | −2.0 | W+8.0 | 147.5 | O162 | 126.2 | 111.5 | 68.1 |
| Mar 14 | San Diego St | N | W 73–62 | −2.5 | W+8.5 | 146.0 | U135 | 111.8 | 95.0 | 65.3 |
| Mar 13 | Nevada | N | W 79–66 | −6.5 | W+6.5 | 144.5 | O145 | 108.1 | 90.3 | 73.1 |
| Mar 12 | UNLV | N | W 80–60 | −8.5 | W+11.5 | 156.5 | U140 | 114.6 | 86.0 | 69.8 |
| Mar 7 | New Mexico | H | W 94–90 | −7.5 | L−3.5 | 156.5 | O184 | 135.8 | 130.0 | 69.2 |
| Mar 3 | UNLV | A | L 65–92 | −7.5 | L−34.5 | 156.5 | O157 | 92.5 | 130.9 | 70.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUC San DiegoUtah State
Efficiency
106.5
118.3
102.2
98.9
69.5
72.6
-2.6
-9.6
Shooting
57.7%
60.8%
60.0%
62.8%
36.0%
38.0%
60.0%
74.2%
15.4%
31.7%
Ball control & glass
11.9%
12.0%
19.4%
19.1%
31.4%
36.4%
37.2%
27.6%
6.0%
8.4%
12.5%
7.3%
Style
38.5%
34.1%
59.3%
55.0%
25.9%
19.2%
33.3%
62.8%
38.5%
34.2%
Roster
3.15
3.14
6'5.4"
6'5.6"
63.6%
25.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUC San Diego
Returning minutes: 63.6%Returning production: 58.0%
Lost
- Bol Dengdit 23.4 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Hawai'i
- Hudson Mayes 23.2 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to New Mexico
- Emanuel Prospere II 18.2 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trap Johnson 6.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg · transferred to VMI
- Ryder Elisaldez 1.3 mpg, 0.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Christopher Cox 0.2 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Rahmir Barno from FGCU · 31.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg last season
- Camp Wagner from Indiana St · 28.8 mpg, 11.9 ppg last season
- Treysen Eaglestaff from West Virginia · 28.6 mpg, 9.8 ppg last season
- Kayde Dotson from Loyola Chicago · 22.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg last season
- Olavi Suutela from Oregon St · 17.5 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
- Jordan Johnson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 64% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
Utah State
Returning minutes: 25.5%Returning production: 30.2%
Lost
- MJ Collins Jr. 30.8 mpg, 17.5 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Drake Allen 24.8 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kolby King 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Adlan Elamin 18.9 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Garry Clark 16.6 mpg, 6.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Perryman 13.9 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
Added
- AJ Bates from Louisiana Tech · 33.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg last season
- Dallin Hall from Virginia · 28.4 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Solomon Callaghan from Wright St · 26.5 mpg, 9.6 ppg last season
- Will Hornseth from Northern Iowa · 25.5 mpg, 10.8 ppg last season
- Collin Mulholland from Chattanooga · 12.4 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Connor Turnbull from Evansville · 10.0 mpg, 5.8 ppg last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -12.5-118 | 154.5→158.5o-115 u-105 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -12.5-115 | 154.5→158.5o-110 u-110 | -1000 | +640 |
| BetMGM | -12.5-118 | 154.5→158.5o-115 u-105 | -1000 | +650 |
| BetRivers | -13.5→-12.5-117 | 156.5→158.5o-115 u-107 | -910 | +550 |
| Caesars | -12.5-110 | 154.5→159o-110 u-110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Fanatics | -13→-12.5-115 | 154.5→159o-110 u-110 | -1000 | +650 |
| BetOnline | -13-110 | 155→159o-110 u-110 | -1000 | +661 |
| Bovada | -12.5→-13-105 | 154.5→159o-110 u-110 | -1000 | +625 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5→-12.5-120 | 154.5→159.5o-110 u-110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Hard Rock | -13.5→-12.5-115 | 156.5→158.5o-115 u-105 | -900 | +550 |
| Kalshi | -12.5-113 | 154.5→159.5o+100 u-104 | -809 | +733 |
| Polymarket | -12.5-113 | 158.5o-108 u+104 | -809 | +733 |
| Novig | -12.5→-13.5+106 | — | -770 | +733 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.