Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs California Baptist Lancers basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 10:30 PM ET · Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA
Non-conferenceESPN+Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center, Riverside, CA
AR-Pine Bluff
0-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #364
@
CA Baptist
0-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #299
Live
68.684.9
Projected score
UAPB win 8%CBU win 92%
MarketClose
Spread
CBU −15.0
open CBU −15.5
Total
144.5
open 149.0
Our line
CBU −16.4
Our total
153.5
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 10:21 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
CA Baptistrated 6.1 below average
−6.1
AR-Pine Bluffrated 19.1 below average
+19.1
Home court
+3.4
Our line
CBU −16.4
◂ AR-Pine Bluff sideCA Baptist side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
CA Baptistlower-scoring games
−5.0
AR-Pine Bluffhigher-scoring games
+7.3
Our line
153.5
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward CA Baptist.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, AR-Pine Bluff is the faster team (78.8, #19 of 365) and CA Baptist the slower (67.7, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
144.5
Market close · open 149.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
75.1#13
AR-Pine Bluff
67.1#342
CA Baptist
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
CBU −16.3
Four factors +19.0 · not in these stats −2.7
From the four factors
CA Baptist has the ball+7.0
AR-Pine Bluff has the ball−11.9
CA Baptist has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 46.1% #272 · UAPB allows 59.8% #336+2.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.7% #213 · UAPB forces 14.0% #309 · ~11 turnovers+2.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 24.8% #297 · UAPB allows 50.0% #360+1.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 33.7% #216 · UAPB allows 51.0% #322 · FT 71.4% #150+0.7
AR-Pine Bluff has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 37.2% #364 · CBU forces 17.2% #199 · ~20 turnovers−9.0
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 38.1% #349 · CBU allows 59.4% #332−2.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.4% #247 · CBU allows 25.0% #38 · FT 65.3% #272−1.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.2% #230 · CBU allows 38.5% #310+0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootAR-Pine Bluffoffense vsCA Baptistdefense
Share of shots by zone
AR-Pine Bluff shoots
29.7
25.3
6.6
38.5
CA Baptist allows
39.9
7.4
6.1
46.6
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.6%#222 | 70.8%#325 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 21.7%#299 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#317 | 50.0%#297 | 36.0% |
| Three | 21.3%#351 | 34.1%#223 | 32.4% |
CA Baptistoffense vsAR-Pine Bluffdefense
Share of shots by zone
CA Baptist shoots
33.3
5.8
16.0
44.9
AR-Pine Bluff allows
35.2
11.2
14.4
39.2
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 55.8%#218 | 88.6%#363 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#188 | 28.6%#100 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#132 | 38.9%#207 | 36.0% |
| Three | 29.5%#240 | 32.0%#174 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineAR-Pine Bluff
−28.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#364 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#230
Def reb %
50.0%
#360
Turnover %
37.2%
#364
Forced TO %
14.0%
#309
FT rate
31.4%
#247
FT allowed
51.0%
#322
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−6.1
Ball security−13.5
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−3.5
CA Baptist
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#233 of 365
Off reb %
24.8%
#297
Def reb %
61.5%
#310
Turnover %
18.7%
#213
Forced TO %
17.2%
#199
FT rate
33.7%
#216
FT allowed
25.0%
#38
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.2
Defensive rebounding−2.2
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+3.2
CA Baptist has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.1 (#233 of 365) to AR-Pine Bluff’s −28.3 (#364).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notAR-Pine Bluff2026-27 numbers · last game: UCLA, Nov 11
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 32.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 11.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 47.7% | 14.3% | 2.3 | 63.6% | 26.6% | |
| 22 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-2 | 26.0 | 29 | — | Started last | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 60.7% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 17.1% | |
| 5 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-2 | 23.0 | 25 | — | Started last | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 35.7% | 25.0% | 4.0 | 100.0% | 19.9% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-1 | 21.7 | 22 | — | Bench | 3.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 35.7% | 22.2% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 21.9% | |
| 3 | G | So | 6'7" | 3-2 | 17.7 | 18 | — | Started last | 1.3 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 9.4% | 12.5% | 2.7 | 33.3% | 23.4% | |
| 9 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 23 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 37.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 37.6% | |
| 10 | G | Fr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 16.3 | 10 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 21.7% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-1 | 12.7 | 11 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 58.3% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 60.0% | 19.4% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 3-1 | 10.0 | 5 | — | Bench | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 15.0% | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 9.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 28.0% | |
| 8 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 3-1 | 9.0 | 18 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 9.6% | |
| 6 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 2.7 | — | — | Active | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 6.4% | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Active | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 0.5 | — | 8.6% |
Into the starting lineup: Creed Williamson.Into the starting lineup: CJ Smith.Into the starting lineup: Jai'chaunn Hayes.Out of the starting lineup: Harrison Pickett.Out of the starting lineup: Jeremy Nyakundi.Out of the starting lineup: Braylon Johnson.
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesAR-Pine Bluff
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-0
Road
0-3
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −14.7
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
1-2
Home
0-0
Road
1-2
Last 10
1-2
avg vs total −4.8
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | #9UCLA | A | L 37–106 | +46.5 | L−22.5 | 156.5 | U143 | 48.5 | 138.8 | 76.4 |
| Nov 6 | Baylor | A | L 53–109 | +37.5 | L−18.5 | 163.5 | U162 | 64.6 | 132.9 | 82.0 |
| Nov 3 | #12Arkansas | A | L 61–106 | +42.0 | L−3.0 | 166.5 | O167 | 78.2 | 135.9 | 78.0 |
| Mar 12 | Southern | N | L 81–84 | +5.0 | W+2.0 | 150.5 | O165 | 123.9 | 128.4 | 65.4 |
| Mar 5 | Alcorn St | A | W 83–48 | −1.0 | W+34.0 | 144.0 | U131 | 111.6 | 64.5 | 74.4 |
| Mar 3 | Jackson St | A | L 78–81 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 153.0 | O159 | 112.5 | 116.8 | 69.3 |
| Feb 28 | Miss Valley St | H | L 69–70 | −14.0 | L−15.0 | 147.5 | U139 | 99.0 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Feb 21 | Prairie View | H | W 84–82 | −3.5 | L−1.5 | 158.0 | O166 | 123.7 | 120.8 | 67.9 |
| Feb 19 | Texas Southern | H | L 64–83 | −1.0 | L−20.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 93.7 | 121.5 | 68.3 |
| Feb 16 | Alabama A&M | A | L 70–82 | +3.5 | L−8.5 | 144.0 | O152 | 110.4 | 129.3 | 63.4 |
CA Baptist
Against the spread
Season
0-3
Home
0-2
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-3
avg cover −18.8
Missed the spread 3 straight
Over / under
Season
2-1
Home
1-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-1
avg vs total −3.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | Chicago St | H | L 62–81 | −11.5 | L−30.5 | 137.0 | O143 | 103.2 | 134.9 | 60.0 |
| Nov 6 | Oregon St | A | L 68–96 | +20.5 | L−7.5 | 157.5 | O164 | 102.4 | 144.5 | 66.4 |
| Nov 3 | North Florida | H | L 63–71 | −10.5 | L−18.5 | 155.5 | U134 | 82.4 | 92.8 | 76.5 |
| Mar 20 | #4Kansas | N | L 60–68 | +14.0 | W+6.0 | 142.0 | U128 | 86.5 | 98.1 | 69.3 |
| Mar 14 | Utah Valley | N | W 63–61 | +2.5 | W+4.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 95.0 | 92.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 13 | Utah Tech | N | W 86–72 | −8.0 | W+6.0 | 143.5 | O158 | 122.2 | 102.3 | 70.4 |
| Mar 7 | Southern Utah | A | W 82–75 | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 117.2 | 107.2 | 69.9 |
| Mar 5 | Abilene Chrstn | H | W 87–48 | −10.0 | W+29.0 | 137.0 | U135 | 120.1 | 66.2 | 72.5 |
| Feb 28 | Tarleton St | H | W 82–67 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 139.0 | O149 | 122.7 | 100.2 | 66.8 |
| Feb 26 | UT Arlington | H | W 68–56 | −6.5 | W+5.5 | 134.5 | U124 | 108.1 | 89.0 | 62.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAR-Pine BluffCA Baptist
Efficiency
92.7
100.3
115.1
110.0
75.1
67.1
18.2
-6.5
Shooting
38.1%
46.1%
42.1%
47.7%
21.3%
29.5%
65.3%
71.4%
31.4%
33.7%
Ball control & glass
37.2%
18.7%
14.0%
17.2%
29.2%
24.8%
50.0%
38.5%
23.7%
7.4%
18.9%
11.4%
Style
39.1%
47.0%
49.0%
32.1%
7.9%
10.9%
49.1%
55.4%
45.0%
43.8%
Roster
2.84
2.29
6'5.9"
6'4.3"
2.7%
13.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAR-Pine Bluff
Returning minutes: 2.7%Returning production: 1.8%
Lost
- Quion Williams 36.1 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Trevon Payton 33.8 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to Bradley
- Alex Mirhosseini 30.9 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Milhan Charles 28.3 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to FAU
- Jaquan Scott 27.6 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ramel Lloyd Jr. 13.2 mpg, 4.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Elijah Hernandez new to D1 · 37.0 mpg, 16.0 ppg last season
- Jalen Tatum from Jackson St · 8.8 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
- David Giddens from Cleveland St · 6.8 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Macaleab Rich from UTSA · 5.5 mpg, 3.0 ppg last season
- CJ Smith from UTEP · 2.6 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Lataevyon Taylor no D1 minutes last season
Returns 3% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
CA Baptist
Returning minutes: 13.5%Returning production: 8.4%
Lost
- Dominique Daniels Jr. 35.2 mpg, 22.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Martel Williams 32.2 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayden Jackson 23.9 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jonathan Griman 21.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg · transferred to Arizona St
- Bradey Henige 19.6 mpg, 4.8 ppg · transferred to Fresno St
- Thomas Ndong 16.5 mpg, 4.6 ppg · transferred to Saint Mary's
Added
- Ethan Duncan from Lipscomb · 20.6 mpg, 10.2 ppg last season
- Nick Richart from Charlotte · 4.6 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Aleksa Milenkovic no D1 minutes last season
- Steven Reynolds III no D1 minutes last season
- Terry Coner Jr. no D1 minutes last season
- Odartey Blankson no D1 minutes last season
Returns 13% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -16.5→-15.5-102 | 148.5→144.5o-115 u-105 | -1650 | +950 |
| FanDuel | -14.5-114 | 149.5→144.5o-110 u-110 | -1700 | +890 |
| BetMGM | -15.5→-14.5-118 | 148.5→144.5o-115 u-105 | -1600 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -15.5-106 | 148.5→145.5o-109 u-114 | -2000 | +850 |
| Caesars | -15.5→-15-110 | 148.5→145o-110 u-110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Fanatics | -15.5→-15-110 | 149→145o-110 u-110 | -1500 | +900 |
| BetOnline | -15-105 | 149.5→145o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -15.5-105 | 148.5→145o-110 u-110 | -1900 | +900 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5→-14.5-120 | 148.5→145.5o-110 u-110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| Hard Rock | -15.5-105 | 148.5→145.5o-110 u-110 | -1600 | +850 |
| Kalshi | -16.5+122 | 148.5→143.5o-113 u+108 | -1150 | +900 |
| Polymarket | -15.5+104 | 145.5o+104 u-113 | -1150 | +1011 |
| Novig | -7.5-388 | 146.5→144.5o-111 u+102 | -1011 | +953 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
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- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
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- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
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- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.