Merrimack Warriors vs Florida Gators basketball final score
Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET · Tower Hill Arena, Gainesville, FL
Non-conferenceSEC NetworkTower Hill Arena, Gainesville, FL
Merrimack
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #204
@
1Florida
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #4
Final
5483
Final score
Projected 57.8 – 90.0
MRMK win 0%FLA win 100%
MarketClose
Spread
FLA −35.0
open FLA −37.5
Total
140.0
open 142.75
Our line
FLA −32.3
Our total
147.8
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 6:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Floridarated 26.7 above average
+26.7
Merrimackrated 2.1 below average
+2.1
Home court
+3.4
Our line
FLA −32.3
◂ Merrimack sideFlorida side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Floridahigher-scoring games
+6.4
Merrimacklower-scoring games
−10.0
Our line
147.8
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Florida.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 66.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Florida is the faster team (70.0, #207 of 365) and Merrimack the slower (62.2, #356). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
66.1
per team, 40 min
Market total
140.0
Market close · open 142.75
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.9#356
Merrimack
70.7#175
Florida
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
FLA −32.2
Four factors 10.2Not in these stats 22.0
From the four factors
Florida has the ball+3.7
Merrimack has the ball−6.5
Florida has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.1% #26 · MRMK allows 45.5% #355+5.5
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.1% #226 · MRMK forces 24.1% #32 · ~15 turnovers−3.5
✓Shoots it welleFG% 54.0% #117 · MRMK allows 48.5% #132+1.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 62.8% #7 · MRMK allows 34.0% #146 · FT 67.0% #245+0.7
Merrimack has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.5% #242 · FLA allows 41.3% #29−5.9
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 17.7% #178 · FLA forces 15.2% #275 · ~11 turnovers+1.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.1% #180 · FLA allows 24.4% #44−1.2
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 32.7% #236 · FLA allows 35.2% #168 · FT 54.7% #355−1.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootMerrimackoffense vs#1Floridadefense
Share of shots by zone
Merrimack shoots
39.3
7.6
12.4
40.7
Florida allows
29.1
8.1
31.1
31.8
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.9%#184 | 46.5%#40 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 45.5%#118 | 41.7%#209 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 16.7%#317 | 43.5%#251 | 36.0% |
| Three | 29.4%#241 | 23.7%#21 | 32.4% |
#1Floridaoffense vsMerrimackdefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida shoots
24.8
10.6
15.6
48.9
Merrimack allows
37.5
4.2
17.4
41.0
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 71.4%#34 | 55.6%#138 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 53.3%#73 | 50.0%#263 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 22.7%#297 | 48.0%#295 | 36.0% |
| Three | 39.2%#50 | 28.4%#92 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineMerrimack
+0.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#171 of 365
Off reb %
32.1%
#180
Def reb %
54.5%
#355
Turnover %
17.7%
#178
Forced TO %
24.1%
#32
FT rate
32.7%
#236
FT allowed
34.0%
#146
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−4.5
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers+4.3
Foul shots drawn−1.2
Foul shots allowed+0.9
#1Florida
+10.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#46 of 365
Off reb %
41.1%
#26
Def reb %
75.6%
#44
Turnover %
19.1%
#226
Forced TO %
15.2%
#275
FT rate
62.8%
#7
FT allowed
35.2%
#168
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.2
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers−2.0
Foul shots drawn+6.6
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +10.3 (#46 of 365) to Merrimack’s +0.1 (#171).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notMerrimack2026-27 numbers · last game: UAlbany, Nov 8
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 34.0 | 35 | — | Started last | 14.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 43.8% | 39.1% | 7.7 | 87.5% | 30.4% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-3 | 28.7 | 27 | — | Started last | 10.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 36.8% | 23.8% | 7.0 | 75.0% | 31.6% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 5'10" | 3-3 | 27.3 | 28 | — | Started last | 7.7 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 55.9% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 50.0% | 17.2% | |
| 20 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 25.3 | 30 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44.1% | 12.5% | 2.7 | — | 17.8% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 21.7 | 20 | — | Bench | 9.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 52.2% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 80.0% | 32.1% | |
| 5 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 18.7 | 14 | — | Started last | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 33.3% | 23.3% | |
| 14 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 16.3 | 21 | — | Bench | 1.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.3% | |
| 0 | F | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 6 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.3 | — | 14.6% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 10.3 | 14 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 28.6% | 30.2% | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 3 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 1.0 | — | 11.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameMerrimack
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-2
avg cover −8.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-3
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-3
avg vs total −10.8
Under 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | UAlbany | A | W 73–60 | −2.0 | W+11.0 | 135.0 | U133 | 115.3 | 94.7 | 63.3 |
| Nov 5 | UMass Lowell | H | L 61–71 | −9.5 | L−19.5 | 140.0 | U132 | 92.1 | 107.2 | 66.2 |
| Nov 2 | App State | N | L 49–63 | −3.0 | L−17.0 | 134.5 | U112 | 85.8 | 110.3 | 57.1 |
| Mar 10 | Siena | N | L 54–64 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 128.5 | U118 | 84.9 | 100.7 | 63.6 |
| Mar 8 | Marist | N | W 58–57 | −3.0 | L−2.0 | 128.5 | U115 | 90.7 | 89.2 | 63.9 |
| Mar 6 | Sacred Heart | N | W 70–48 | −7.0 | W+15.0 | 143.0 | U118 | 114.6 | 78.6 | 61.1 |
| Mar 1 | Niagara | A | W 73–66 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 127.0 | O139 | 120.5 | 108.9 | 60.6 |
| Feb 27 | Canisius | A | L 62–67 | −9.0 | L−14.0 | 130.0 | U129 | 102.1 | 110.3 | 60.7 |
| Feb 22 | Iona | H | W 88–86 2OT | −6.5 | L−4.5 | 137.0 | O174 | 119.0 | 116.3 | 73.9 |
| Feb 20 | Siena | H | W 79–72 OT | −2.5 | W+4.5 | 133.0 | O151 | 124.7 | 113.6 | 63.4 |
#1Florida
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover −1.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-3
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-3
avg vs total −12.7
Under 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Florida St | A | W 81–72 | −8.5 | W+0.5 | 164.0 | U153 | 110.9 | 98.6 | 73.0 |
| Nov 5 | Jacksonville | H | W 88–57 | −37.5 | L−6.5 | 156.5 | U145 | 133.4 | 86.4 | 66.0 |
| Nov 2 | #14Miami | N | W 77–67 | −7.0 | W+3.0 | 159.5 | U144 | 108.5 | 94.4 | 70.9 |
| Mar 22 | #9Iowa | N | L 72–73 | −10.0 | L−11.0 | 145.0 | P145 | 117.8 | 119.4 | 61.1 |
| Mar 20 | #16Prairie View | N | W 114–55 | −35.0 | W+24.0 | 154.0 | O169 | 164.5 | 79.4 | 69.3 |
| Mar 14 | #22Vanderbilt | N | L 74–91 | −7.0 | L−24.0 | 160.0 | O165 | 115.8 | 142.4 | 63.9 |
| Mar 13 | Kentucky | N | W 71–63 | −10.0 | L−2.0 | 160.5 | U134 | 97.1 | 86.2 | 73.1 |
| Mar 7 | Kentucky | A | W 84–77 | −5.5 | W+1.5 | 162.0 | U161 | 117.3 | 107.6 | 71.6 |
| Mar 3 | Mississippi St | H | W 108–74 | −21.0 | W+13.0 | 160.5 | O182 | 143.9 | 98.6 | 75.1 |
| Feb 28 | #20Arkansas | H | W 111–77 | −10.5 | W+23.5 | 170.0 | O188 | 137.4 | 95.3 | 80.8 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeMerrimack#1Florida
Efficiency
102.0
118.2
105.2
93.5
65.9
70.7
-5.0
6.8
Shooting
47.5%
54.0%
50.0%
49.4%
29.4%
39.2%
54.7%
67.0%
32.7%
62.8%
Ball control & glass
17.7%
19.1%
24.1%
15.2%
32.1%
41.1%
45.5%
24.4%
9.6%
11.4%
9.6%
4.7%
Style
42.0%
48.2%
49.2%
31.7%
17.5%
4.5%
38.8%
63.0%
33.0%
27.5%
Roster
2.98
3.63
6'4"
6'6.8"
18.4%
77.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputMerrimack
Returning minutes: 36.3%Returning production: 32.9%
Lost
- Ernest Shelton 36.9 mpg, 15.9 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Kevair Kennedy 36.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg · transferred to Wake Forest
- Andrés Marrero 27.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- KC Ugwuakazi 17.8 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to Robert Morris
- Jaylen Stinson 3.8 mpg, 0.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Aliou Cisse 2.7 mpg, 0.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Denver Anglin from Iona · 27.2 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
- Elijah Wilborn from James Madison · 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg last season
- Aram Vladimir Soqui Urbano from Fresno St · 3.9 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
- Rocco Westfield no D1 minutes last season
- Jacob Moore no D1 minutes last season
- AJ Lesburt Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#1Florida
Returning minutes: 78.8%Returning production: 79.0%
Lost
- Xaivian Lee 27.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Gonzaga
- Micah Handlogten 14.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · transferred to Ole Miss
- Olivier Rioux 0.5 mpg, 0.2 ppg · transferred to UC Irvine
- Cooper Josefsberg 0.1 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Denzel Aberdeen from Kentucky · 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
- Arturas Butajevas no D1 minutes last season
- Jones Lay no D1 minutes last season
- AJ Brown no D1 minutes last season
- Domen Petrovic no D1 minutes last season
Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -37.5→-35.5-112 | 142.5→139.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5→-35.5-110 | 143.5→140.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37.5→-35.5-110 | 142.5→139.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5→-35.5-108 | 144.5→139.5o-114 u-109 | — | — |
| Caesars | -37.5→-35.5-110 | 142.5→140o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37.5→-35.5-110 | 143→139.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -37.5→-35.5-109 | 142.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5→-36-105 | 143.5→140o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5→-35.5-110 | 142.5→139.5o-105 u-115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -37.5→-35.5-105 | 144.5→139.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 142.5→140.5o+100 u-104 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -37.5→-35.5-108 | 143.5→140.5o+100 u-104 | — | — |
| Novig | -37.5→— | 143.5→— | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 21 | 2025-26 | Merrimack 45 – 80 Florida |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.