UL Monroe Warhawks vs Arizona State Sun Devils basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
Non-conferenceESPN+Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
UL Monroe
1-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #331
@
Arizona St
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #58
Live
59.691.9
Projected score
ULM win 0%ASU win 100%
MarketClose
Spread
ASU −30.0
open ASU −31.5
Total
149.5
open 151.5
Our line
ASU −32.3
Our total
151.6
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Arizona Strated 14.7 above average
+14.7
UL Monroerated 14.2 below average
+14.2
Home court
+3.4
Our line
ASU −32.3
◂ UL Monroe sideArizona St side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
Arizona Stlower-scoring games
−5.1
UL Monroehigher-scoring games
+5.3
Our line
151.6
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Arizona St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UL Monroe is the faster team (75.1, #56 of 365) and Arizona St the slower (64.5, #339). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.9
per team, 40 min
Market total
149.5
Market close · open 151.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
73.2#52
UL Monroe
69.1#268
Arizona St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ASU −32.3
Four factors 16.8Not in these stats 15.5
From the four factors
Arizona St has the ball+13.1
UL Monroe has the ball−3.7
Arizona St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 56.8% #71 · ULM allows 52.8% #234+5.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.6% #20 · ULM allows 36.5% #284+4.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 14.5% #64 · ULM forces 16.0% #241 · ~11 turnovers+3.1
✓Gets to the lineFTR 37.5% #171 · ULM allows 44.1% #274 · FT 75.8% #79+0.7
UL Monroe has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 49.0% #208 · ASU allows 48.6% #138−1.8
✗Coughs it upTO% 23.3% #330 · ASU forces 16.0% #238 · ~14 turnovers−1.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.7% #186 · ASU allows 21.3% #16 · FT 64.3% #290−1.3
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.4% #73 · ASU allows 26.4% #74+0.7
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUL Monroeoffense vsArizona Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
UL Monroe shoots
32.7
7.1
18.5
41.7
Arizona St allows
31.3
6.9
29.8
32.1
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 52.7%#263 | 53.7%#106 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 25.0%#268 | 44.4%#227 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 41.9%#120 | 28.2%#93 | 36.0% |
| Three | 33.7%#157 | 41.1%#332 | 32.4% |
Arizona Stoffense vsUL Monroedefense
Share of shots by zone
Arizona St shoots
34.0
7.1
13.5
45.4
UL Monroe allows
36.5
7.9
12.2
43.4
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 72.9%#29 | 55.1%#131 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 60.0%#33 | 53.3%#300 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 42.1%#119 | 47.8%#292 | 36.0% |
| Three | 37.8%#72 | 33.3%#203 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUL Monroe
−6.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#283 of 365
Off reb %
37.4%
#73
Def reb %
63.5%
#284
Turnover %
23.3%
#330
Forced TO %
16.0%
#241
FT rate
35.7%
#186
FT allowed
44.1%
#274
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.0
Defensive rebounding−1.6
Ball security−3.7
Forcing turnovers−1.5
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed−1.7
Arizona St
+10.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#41 of 365
Off reb %
41.6%
#20
Def reb %
73.6%
#74
Turnover %
14.5%
#64
Forced TO %
16.0%
#238
FT rate
37.5%
#171
FT allowed
21.3%
#16
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.4
Defensive rebounding+1.8
Ball security+2.6
Forcing turnovers−1.4
Foul shots drawn0.0
Foul shots allowed+4.2
Arizona St has more extra scoring chances per game: +10.7 (#41 of 365) to UL Monroe’s −6.9 (#283).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notUL Monroe2026-27 numbers · last game: TCU, Nov 10
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 4-4 | 33.3 | 38 | — | Started last | 16.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 51.7% | 29.7% | 9.3 | 66.7% | 32.5% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 4-4 | 27.5 | 26 | — | Started last | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 39.7% | 16.7% | 1.5 | 91.7% | 22.4% | |
| 5 | F | So | 6'7" | 4-4 | 26.8 | 32 | — | Started last | 7.0 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 64.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 52.6% | 14.0% | |
| 0 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 4-4 | 26.5 | 20 | — | Started last | 16.8 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 51.9% | 47.6% | 5.3 | 86.7% | 34.9% | |
| 11 | C | Jr | 6'10" | 4-4 | 19.3 | 14 | — | Started last | 8.3 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 54.3% | 20.0% | 1.3 | 57.1% | 26.9% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 4-0 | 19.0 | 9 | — | Bench | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 30.0% | 12.5% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 14.8% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 20.3 | 28 | — | Bench | 11.3 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 57.7% | 54.5% | 3.7 | 66.7% | 32.3% | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 4-0 | 14.8 | 13 | — | Bench | 6.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 52.4% | 40.0% | 3.8 | 80.0% | 22.4% | |
| 34 | C | Sr | 6'10" | 4-0 | 11.5 | 20 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 15.0% | |
| 20 | F | So | 6'9" | 4-0 | 6.5 | 2 | — | Bench | 0.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 14.5% | |
| 8 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 8.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 94.4% | 62.5% | 4.0 | — | 24.2% | |
| 10 | C | Jr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 5.5 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 7 | G | Fr | 5'9" | 2-0 | 5.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 22.1% | |
| 9 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Missed last | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 30.9% | |
| 13 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 1.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUL Monroe
Against the spread
Season
1-2
Home
0-1
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-2
avg cover +6.3
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
3-0
Home
1-0
Road
2-0
Last 10
3-0
avg vs total +15.5
Over 3 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | TCU | A | L 92–100 2OT | +33.5 | W+25.5 | 160.0 | O192 | 103.4 | 112.4 | 88.9 |
| Nov 9 | Texas A&M | A | L 67–108 | +36.5 | L−4.5 | 169.5 | O175 | 80.1 | 129.2 | 83.6 |
| Nov 4 | Champion Christian Tigers | H | W 99–55 | — | — | — | — | 140.9 | 78.3 | 70.3 |
| Nov 2 | C Michigan | H | L 78–83 | +3.0 | L−2.0 | 152.0 | O161 | 108.8 | 115.8 | 71.7 |
| Mar 3 | Old Dominion | N | L 80–87 | +10.5 | W+3.5 | 157.5 | O167 | 114.6 | 124.6 | 69.8 |
| Feb 27 | Troy | A | L 65–80 | +18.0 | W+3.0 | 153.5 | U145 | 104.3 | 128.4 | 62.3 |
| Feb 25 | South Alabama | A | L 54–89 | +14.5 | L−20.5 | 153.5 | U143 | 80.3 | 132.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Arkansas St | H | L 94–102 | +15.5 | W+7.5 | 164.0 | O196 | 120.9 | 131.2 | 77.8 |
| Feb 18 | Troy | H | L 76–77 | +17.0 | W+16.0 | 155.5 | U153 | 107.6 | 109.0 | 70.6 |
| Feb 14 | Texas St | A | L 84–95 | +14.0 | W+3.0 | 149.0 | O179 | 131.0 | 148.1 | 64.1 |
Arizona St
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover +0.3
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg vs total +6.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Hofstra | H | W 85–63 | −19.0 | W+3.0 | 133.5 | O148 | 131.5 | 97.5 | 64.6 |
| Nov 6 | N Colorado | H | W 90–63 | −19.5 | W+7.5 | 144.0 | O153 | 133.7 | 93.6 | 67.3 |
| Nov 2 | ETSU | H | W 75–65 | −19.5 | L−9.5 | 145.5 | U140 | 121.9 | 105.6 | 61.5 |
| Mar 11 | #7Iowa State | N | L 42–91 | +12.5 | L−36.5 | 149.5 | U133 | 61.1 | 132.3 | 68.8 |
| Mar 10 | Baylor | N | W 83–79 | +5.0 | W+9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 117.3 | 111.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | #6Iowa State | A | L 65–86 | +16.5 | L−4.5 | 148.0 | O151 | 89.1 | 117.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #14Kansas | H | W 70–60 | +6.0 | W+16.0 | 150.0 | U130 | 96.7 | 82.8 | 72.4 |
| Feb 28 | Utah | H | W 73–60 | −7.0 | W+6.0 | 150.5 | U133 | 124.8 | 102.6 | 58.5 |
| Feb 24 | TCU | A | L 78–90 | +6.5 | L−5.5 | 149.0 | O168 | 104.1 | 120.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 21 | Baylor | A | L 68–73 | +8.5 | W+3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 104.0 | 111.6 | 65.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUL MonroeArizona St
Efficiency
101.4
114.4
114.1
102.8
73.2
69.1
9.9
1.6
Shooting
49.0%
56.8%
47.8%
56.9%
33.7%
37.8%
64.3%
75.8%
35.7%
37.5%
Ball control & glass
23.3%
14.5%
16.0%
16.0%
37.4%
41.6%
36.5%
26.4%
13.9%
7.8%
15.0%
2.9%
Style
42.3%
42.0%
38.0%
42.4%
8.4%
14.0%
46.3%
53.5%
37.4%
27.8%
Roster
3.18
2.45
6'4.5"
6'7"
0.1%
9.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUL Monroe
Returning minutes: 0.1%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Krystian Lewis 36.2 mpg, 18.4 ppg · transferred to Tulane
- MJ Russell 35.7 mpg, 15.3 ppg · transferred to SF Austin
- Lavell Brodnex 25.7 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Renars Sondors 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg · transferred to Wyoming
- Alex Molofeev 20.5 mpg, 4.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dylan Diaz 16.3 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Dayjaun Anderson from UAB · 15.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
- Khalil London from Tennessee St · 11.1 mpg, 4.6 ppg last season
- Quaran McPherson from UAB · 9.1 mpg, 3.7 ppg last season
- Robert Cowherd from Southern Miss · 1.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Lance Carr from UAB · 0.5 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Jean Lafleur from Tennessee St · 0.4 mpg, 0.1 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Arizona St
Returning minutes: 9.2%Returning production: 5.3%
Lost
- Maurice Odum 33.8 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Massamba Diop 29.7 mpg, 13.6 ppg · transferred to Gonzaga
- Anthony Johnson 24.8 mpg, 13.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Meeusen 24.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to DePaul
- Santiago Trouet 24.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Ole Miss
- Andrija Grbovic 19.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma St
Added
- Joel Foxwell from Portland · 35.7 mpg, 15.6 ppg last season
- Paulius Murauskas from Saint Mary's · 32.2 mpg, 18.4 ppg last season
- Ben Defty from Boston U · 28.6 mpg, 14.6 ppg last season
- Dillan Shaw from Saint Mary's · 27.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg last season
- Emmanuel Innocenti from Gonzaga · 24.4 mpg, 6.0 ppg last season
- Jonathan Griman from CA Baptist · 21.2 mpg, 5.5 ppg last season
Returns 9% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -31.5→-29.5-112 | 152.5→148.5o-115 u-105 | — | +4000 |
| FanDuel | -31.5→-29.5-118 | 151.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -31.5→-30.5-105 | 152.5→148.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -32.5→-29.5-112 | 151.5→148.5o-109 u-114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -31.5→-29.5-110 | 152.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -31.5→-29.5-115 | 151.5→148.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -31→-30-105 | 152.5→149o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -32.5→-30-110 | 150.5→149o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -31.5→-29.5-110 | 152.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -32.5→-29.5-110 | 151.5→148.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 149.5o+108 u-113 | — | +4900 |
| Polymarket | -29.5-104 | 148.5o+100 u-104 | — | +4900 |
| Novig | -31.5→— | — | — | — |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
- West Florida vs Cleveland St · 3:00 PM ET
- Texas A&M-CC at Florida St · 5:00 PM ET
- North Alabama at Miami · 5:00 PM ET
- Georgetown at Clemson · 6:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Pitt at Butler · 6:30 PM ET
- Merrimack at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia at North Carolina · 7:00 PM ET
- Tennessee St at Tennessee · 7:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Fordham · 7:00 PM ET
- Harvard at G Washington · 7:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
- Troy at NC State · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Yale at Northeastern · 7:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Elon · 7:00 PM ET
- Iona at Hofstra · 7:00 PM ET
- N Arizona at Kentucky · 7:00 PM ET
- Prairie View at Vanderbilt · 7:00 PM ET
- FIU at FGCU · 7:00 PM ET
- Columbia at Bucknell · 7:00 PM ET
- Marist at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Northern Iowa at Michigan St · 7:00 PM ET
- App State at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio at Purdue · 7:00 PM ET
- Ohio State at UConn · 7:30 PM ET
- SE Missouri at MTSU · 7:30 PM ET
- NC Central at Liberty · 7:30 PM ET
- South Dakota at Drake · 7:30 PM ET
- FDU at Oklahoma · 8:00 PM ET
- SIUE at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- Virginia at Maryland · 8:00 PM ET
- C Arkansas at Arkansas · 8:00 PM ET
- Milwaukee at TCU · 8:00 PM ET
- GA Southern at UCF · 8:00 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Tarleton St · 8:00 PM ET
- Wright St at Samford · 8:00 PM ET
- Illinois St at N Dakota St · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Southern at Murray St · 8:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss at Texas St · 8:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood at Omaha · 8:45 PM ET
- Seton Hall at Alabama · 9:00 PM ET
- Xavier vs Mississippi St · 9:00 PM ET
- DePaul at Northwestern · 9:00 PM ET
- Arizona at Auburn · 9:00 PM ET
- Ball State at SMU · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Idaho · 9:00 PM ET
- Stanford at UNLV · 9:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at San Diego · 9:30 PM ET
- Miss Valley St at Oregon St · 9:30 PM ET
- UIC at Saint Mary's · 10:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Portland · 10:00 PM ET
- UC San Diego at Utah State · 10:00 PM ET
- AR-Pine Bluff at CA Baptist · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.