Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs basketball prediction & odds
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET · Moody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX
Non-conferenceACC NetworkMoody Coliseum (Dallas), Dallas, TX
Ball State
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #291
@
SMU
3-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #60
Live
67.587.3
Projected score
BALL win 4%SMU win 96%
MarketClose
Spread
SMU −22.5
open SMU −22.5
Total
150.5
open 150.5
Our line
SMU −19.7
Our total
154.8
as of Fri, Nov 13 · 8:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
SMUrated 11.4 above average
+11.4
Ball Staterated 4.9 below average
+4.9
Home court
+3.4
Our line
SMU −19.7
◂ Ball State sideSMU side ▸
Total
Average D-I game
151.3
SMUhigher-scoring games
+7.1
Ball Statelower-scoring games
−3.6
Our line
154.8
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward SMU.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, SMU is the faster team (78.7, #22 of 365) and Ball State the slower (69.6, #220). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.4
per team, 40 min
Market total
150.5
Market close · open 150.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#312
Ball State
74.8#20
SMU
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
SMU −19.7
Four factors 19.7Not in these stats 0.0
From the four factors
SMU has the ball+3.6
Ball State has the ball−16.1
SMU has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.7% #32 · BALL allows 44.9% #65+2.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 57.1% #17 · BALL allows 54.6% #340 · FT 77.3% #53+2.2
✗Coughs it upTO% 21.6% #297 · BALL forces 17.3% #197 · ~14 turnovers−1.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.7% #148 · BALL allows 27.5% #103−0.2
Ball State has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 38.9% #343 · SMU allows 40.7% #25−11.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 20.8% #280 · SMU forces 22.0% #63 · ~16 turnovers−3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.9% #168 · SMU allows 27.5% #103−0.4
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 45.1% #81 · SMU allows 32.4% #126 · FT 64.7% #286−0.3
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootBall Stateoffense vsSMUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ball State shoots
31.9
8.8
17.6
41.8
SMU allows
36.5
4.7
25.7
33.1
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 41.4%#348 | 42.6%#20 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#78 | 14.3%#24 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 62.5%#17 | 31.6%#133 | 36.0% |
| Three | 15.1%#363 | 30.6%#144 | 32.4% |
SMUoffense vsBall Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
SMU shoots
39.3
6.7
13.3
40.7
Ball State allows
53.7
5.3
9.5
31.6
D-I average
38.2
8.1
12.3
41.4
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.3%#115 | 49.0%#58 | 58.1% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 55.6%#61 | 20.0%#40 | 37.9% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 61.1%#22 | 11.1%#15 | 36.0% |
| Three | 39.7%#48 | 36.1%#263 | 32.4% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineBall State
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#232 of 365
Off reb %
32.9%
#168
Def reb %
72.5%
#103
Turnover %
20.8%
#280
Forced TO %
17.3%
#197
FT rate
45.1%
#81
FT allowed
54.6%
#340
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−1.9
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn+2.0
Foul shots allowed−4.5
SMU
+9.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#59 of 365
Off reb %
33.7%
#148
Def reb %
72.5%
#103
Turnover %
21.6%
#297
Forced TO %
22.0%
#63
FT rate
57.1%
#17
FT allowed
32.4%
#126
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security−2.4
Forcing turnovers+2.8
Foul shots drawn+5.1
Foul shots allowed+1.3
SMU has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.0 (#59 of 365) to Ball State’s −3.0 (#232).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notBall State2026-27 numbers · last game: Indiana St, Nov 6
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 32.7 | 37 | — | Started last | 4.7 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 29.4% | 16.7% | 4.0 | 57.1% | 15.3% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-2 | 27.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 51.6% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 70.6% | 33.7% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 23.7 | 24 | — | Started last | 7.3 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 36.5% | 18.8% | 5.3 | 60.0% | 28.3% | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 3-1 | 22.0 | 28 | — | Bench | 14.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 66.7% | 42.9% | 4.7 | 70.6% | 31.9% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 31 | — | Started last | 8.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 35.4% | 18.8% | 8.0 | — | 26.0% | |
| 25 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-1 | 16.7 | 22 | — | Bench | 4.7 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 80.0% | 18.6% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-1 | 14.3 | 9 | — | Bench | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 19.6% | |
| 20 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 16.5 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 56.3% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 20.3% | |
| 4 | G | Jr | 5'11" | 3-0 | 10.7 | 4 | — | Bench | 2.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 44.4% | 28.6% | 2.3 | — | 21.2% | |
| 7 | C | Jr | 6'11" | 2-1 | 15.5 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 10.4% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 10.0 | 2 | — | Bench | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 55.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 75.0% | 24.2% | |
| 11 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 1-1 | 10.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesBall State
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −9.2
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −25.2
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Brescia Bearcats | H | W 89–64 | — | — | — | — | 123.4 | 88.8 | 72.1 |
| Nov 6 | Indiana St | H | L 66–69 | −2.0 | L−5.0 | 146.5 | U135 | 95.5 | 99.8 | 69.1 |
| Nov 2 | GA Southern | A | L 55–67 | −1.5 | L−13.5 | 161.0 | U122 | 78.6 | 95.7 | 70.0 |
| Mar 6 | C Michigan | H | W 85–69 | −2.0 | W+14.0 | 135.0 | O154 | 125.8 | 102.1 | 67.6 |
| Mar 3 | W Michigan | A | W 74–71 OT | +2.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | O145 | 103.2 | 99.0 | 71.7 |
| Feb 28 | N Illinois | A | W 79–43 | +1.5 | W+37.5 | 133.5 | U122 | 125.7 | 68.4 | 62.8 |
| Feb 24 | UMass | H | W 74–73 OT | +4.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | O147 | 100.6 | 99.3 | 73.5 |
| Feb 20 | Akron | H | L 65–78 | +14.0 | W+1.0 | 147.5 | U143 | 96.7 | 116.1 | 67.2 |
| Feb 17 | Ohio | A | L 57–69 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 144.5 | U126 | 95.3 | 115.4 | 59.8 |
| Feb 14 | Kent State | H | L 68–75 | +8.0 | W+1.0 | 143.0 | P143 | 93.7 | 103.3 | 72.6 |
SMU
Against the spread
Season
2-1
Home
2-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-1
avg cover −1.3
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
1-1-1
Home
1-1-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-1-1
avg vs total +0.5
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Prairie View | H | W 98–63 | −27.0 | W+8.0 | 161.0 | P161 | 127.9 | 82.2 | 76.6 |
| Nov 5 | VMI | H | W 95–70 | −24.5 | W+0.5 | 160.5 | O165 | 113.3 | 83.5 | 83.8 |
| Nov 2 | Southern | H | W 85–72 | −25.5 | L−12.5 | 160.0 | U157 | 112.5 | 95.3 | 75.6 |
| Mar 18 | #11Miami OH | N | L 79–89 | −7.0 | L−17.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 119.2 | 134.3 | 66.3 |
| Mar 11 | #24Louisville | N | L 58–62 | +6.5 | W+2.5 | 163.5 | U120 | 94.4 | 100.9 | 61.5 |
| Mar 10 | Syracuse | N | W 86–69 | −4.0 | W+13.0 | 155.0 | P155 | 130.2 | 104.4 | 66.1 |
| Mar 7 | Florida St | A | L 78–91 | +1.0 | L−12.0 | 158.5 | O169 | 105.8 | 123.4 | 73.7 |
| Mar 4 | #22Miami | H | L 69–77 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 156.5 | U146 | 99.4 | 111.0 | 69.4 |
| Feb 28 | Stanford | A | L 75–95 | +1.0 | L−19.0 | 154.5 | O170 | 116.6 | 147.6 | 64.3 |
| Feb 25 | California | A | L 69–73 | −4.0 | L−8.0 | 163.0 | U142 | 98.9 | 104.7 | 69.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBall StateSMU
Efficiency
95.6
113.5
104.8
102.2
68.0
74.8
-4.9
-11.8
Shooting
38.9%
59.7%
53.3%
59.8%
15.1%
39.7%
64.7%
77.3%
45.1%
57.1%
Ball control & glass
20.8%
21.6%
17.3%
22.0%
32.9%
33.7%
27.5%
27.5%
11.5%
15.3%
6.7%
10.8%
Style
46.9%
40.0%
41.3%
36.7%
8.3%
14.4%
30.0%
78.4%
40.0%
42.2%
Roster
3.27
2.82
6'4.8"
6'6.4"
16.6%
15.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBall State
Returning minutes: 16.6%Returning production: 13.1%
Lost
- Armoni Zeigler 32.4 mpg, 12.5 ppg · transferred to Boston College
- Davion Hill 26.9 mpg, 14.0 ppg · transferred to San Diego
- Elmore James IV 23.9 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devon Barnes 20.9 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Preston Copeland 18.1 mpg, 4.4 ppg · transferred to Miami OH
- Juwan Maxey 13.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Sean Blake from Vermont · 28.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Zaon Collins from Fresno St · 24.9 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Javion Guy-King from C Arkansas · 21.1 mpg, 9.2 ppg last season
- K'Jei Parker from UMass · 20.8 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Babatunde Durodola from Temple · 19.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Trey Lewis from W Michigan · 17.6 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
Returns 17% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
SMU
Returning minutes: 15.8%Returning production: 13.5%
Lost
- Boopie Miller 34.1 mpg, 18.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jaron Pierre Jr. 33.2 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Samet Yigitoglu 28.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Indiana
- Corey Washington 27.8 mpg, 11.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- B.J. Edwards 27.4 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
- B.J. Davis-Ray 6.7 mpg, 1.2 ppg · transferred to N Kentucky
Added
- Rowan Brumbaugh from Tulane · 36.1 mpg, 19.2 ppg last season
- David Terrell Jr. from North Texas · 32.8 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
- Oziyah Sellers from St John's · 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg last season
- Johan Munch from Oregon St · 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
- Jaylin Stewart from UConn · 12.9 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- Nic Codie from Texas · 10.5 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -22.5-110 | 152.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -22.5→-21.5-120 | 150.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2200 |
| BetMGM | -22.5-110 | 151.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | — | +1850 |
| BetRivers | -22.5-117 | 153.5→150.5o-112 u-112 | — | — |
| Caesars | -22.5-110 | 151.5→150o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -22.5-110 | 151→150.5o-110 u-110 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline | -22.5-110 | 151.5→150.5o-116 u-104 | — | +1767 |
| Bovada | -22.5-105 | 153.5→150o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -22.5-105 | 152.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | — | +3000 |
| Hard Rock | -22.5-115 | 152.5→150.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 150.5o+100 u-104 | -4900 | +2400 |
| Polymarket | -22.5+100 | 150.5o-104 u-108 | -3471 | +2281 |
| Novig | -22.5+102 | 150.5o+102 u-104 | -3604 | +3233 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Fri, Nov 13
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.