CBB Reports
Nightly reads on every D-I team: who wins the extra possessions, who is shooting above or below expectation, who is on a run and whose rotation is changing.
Rotation watch
Today's teams: who's playing more, who's playing less and who sat, from each team's most recent games.
- Competitive minutes: Each player's minutes are scaled to a 40-minute game and count only competitive time (min/40).
- Garbage time: Removed using play-by-play: a 2nd-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held once reached.
- Trends: Need a team's 7th game, and both of the last two games 6+ min/40 past the player's own baseline (his games before the last 3), in the same direction.
- Lineup changes: Counted from a team's 3rd game: who joined or left the starting five in its last game.
- Regulars: Players averaging 18+ min/g before they missed their team’s last game.
Trending up
Trending down
Starting lineup changes
Regulars who sat out
How to read this
Minutes are scaled to a 40-minute game and count only competitive time, so heavy minutes in a blowout do not create a trend. Trending up and trending down compare a player's last three games with his own earlier games for that team. A player is listed only when each of his last two games sits far enough from that earlier baseline, in the same direction (the cut-off is in the box at the top). Trending down only covers players who appeared in both of those games; a rotation regular who missed a game is under regulars who sat out instead.
A starting lineup change is a player who started the team's last game but not the one before it (In), or the reverse (Out). Regulars who sat out are rotation players who logged real minutes earlier in the season and did not appear in the team's most recent game. That list uses box-score minutes per game, not the competitive-minute scale, and it cannot say why a player sat. Teams are on different schedules, so "last game" can be several days old.
Data note: trend minutes are built from play-by-play and each trend rests on three games, so small samples move a lot.
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CBB Reports collects four nightly reads. Shot Volume ranks tonight's games by the gap in extra scoring chances each team earns from offensive and defensive rebounding, turnovers and free throws. 3P Luck compares each team's recent 3-point shooting, and its opponents', with what its roster's shooters and the D-I average would predict. Streaks lists teams on long runs against the closing spread and total, with the honest caveat that ten games is a small sample. Rotations tracks who is playing more, who is playing less and who sat, from competitive minutes with garbage time removed.
What these numbers mean: model calibration.