Morgan State Bears vs UMBC Retrievers basketball final score

Thu, Nov 12 · 6:00 PM ET · Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD

410 InvitationalNon-conferenceESPN+Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD

Morgan St

3-0 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #325

UMBC

1-2 · 0-0 conf

Efficiency #201

Final

7085

Final score

Projected 70.3 – 80.5

MORG win 19%UMBC win 81%

MarketClose

Spread

UMBC −8.0

open UMBC −6.5

Total

159.5

open 161.5

Our line

UMBC −10.2

Our total

150.8

as of Thu, Nov 12 · 5:51 PM ET

Our play

How our line is built

each step, from an even game to our line

Spread

Even game

0.0

UMBCrated 6.3 below average

−6.3

Morgan Strated 12.9 below average

+12.9

Home court

+3.6

Our line

UMBC −10.2

◂ Morgan St sideUMBC side ▸

Total

Average D-I game

151.4

UMBClower-scoring games

−2.5

Morgan Sthigher-scoring games

+1.8

Our line

150.8

Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the line by 0.1. The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward UMBC.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 76.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Morgan St is the faster team (76.5, #42 of 365) and UMBC the slower (75.4, #54). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

76.9

per team, 40 min

Market total

159.5

Market close · open 161.5

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

74.0#34

Morgan St

73.5#45

UMBC

How this game plays

points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchup

Our line

UMBC −10.2

Four factors −11.6 · not in these stats +21.8

From the four factors

UMBC has the ball−14.0

Morgan St has the ball−2.4

UMBC has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 42.3% #310 · MORG allows 43.4% #47−8.9

✗Few second chancesOR% 25.0% #295 · MORG allows 20.6% #12−4.5

✗Coughs it upTO% 20.5% #269 · MORG forces 19.6% #117 · ~16 turnovers−2.2

✓Gets to the lineFTR 29.3% #273 · MORG allows 56.6% #343 · FT 83.3% #14+1.6

Morgan St has the ball

✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 39.7% #335 · UMBC allows 50.0% #172−6.9

✓Wins second chancesOR% 40.5% #32 · UMBC allows 36.6% #286+4.2

✓Gets to the lineFTR 42.9% #97 · UMBC allows 41.5% #244 · FT 85.2% #8+1.5

✗Coughs it upTO% 22.2% #309 · UMBC forces 16.6% #219 · ~15 turnovers−1.3

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot

Morgan Stoffense vsUMBCdefense

Share of shots by zone

Morgan St shoots

49.2

1.6

15.9

33.3

UMBC allows

35.1

7.2

12.6

45.0

D-I average

38.1

8.1

12.5

41.4

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	38.7%#354	56.4%#153	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	0.0%#345	25.0%#68	38.0%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	10.0%#340	35.7%#177	35.6%
Three	38.1%#71	33.3%#203	32.5%

UMBCoffense vsMorgan Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

UMBC shoots

40.0

7.4

24.2

28.4

Morgan St allows

39.6

0.0

5.7

54.7

D-I average

38.1

8.1

12.5

41.4

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	47.4%#303	38.1%#9	58.0%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	14.3%#330	—	38.0%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.1%#140	0.0%#1	35.6%
Three	28.6%#254	34.5%#232	32.5%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line

Morgan St

+1.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365

Off reb %

40.5%

#32

Def reb %

79.4%

#12

Turnover %

22.2%

#309

Forced TO %

19.6%

#117

FT rate

42.9%

#97

FT allowed

56.6%

#343

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+3.1

Defensive rebounding+3.7

Ball security−2.9

Forcing turnovers+1.2

Foul shots drawn+1.5

Foul shots allowed−5.0

UMBC

−9.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365

Off reb %

25.0%

#295

Def reb %

63.4%

#286

Turnover %

20.5%

#269

Forced TO %

16.6%

#219

FT rate

29.3%

#273

FT allowed

41.5%

#244

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.1

Defensive rebounding−1.6

Ball security−1.7

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn−2.1

Foul shots allowed−1.1

Morgan St has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.5 (#158 of 365) to UMBC’s −9.6 (#310).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Who has been playing, and who has not

Morgan St2026-27 numbers through Thu, Nov 12

#	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	G	Jr	6'0"	4-4	31.3	15.3	4.8	3.0	3.5	61.4%	46.2%	6.5	100.0%	24.8%
1	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	27.0	22.3	6.3	1.3	1.5	57.8%	43.3%	7.5	85.7%	34.4%
13	F	Sr	6'8"	4-4	23.0	6.0	6.8	1.5	1.5	47.6%	0.0%	0.5	80.0%	16.2%
31	F	Jr	6'10"	4-4	22.3	7.5	7.8	1.3	1.8	59.1%	—	0.0	36.4%	19.4%
11	G	Sr	6'4"	4-4	21.3	7.3	4.0	1.8	2.0	30.0%	9.1%	2.8	66.7%	28.7%
0	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	21.0	5.3	2.5	2.5	1.0	32.7%	17.6%	4.3	100.0%	18.9%
3	F	Sr	6'4"	4-0	10.8	5.0	1.5	0.3	0.3	50.0%	25.0%	1.0	50.0%	24.3%
21	F	So	6'10"	4-0	10.3	4.0	3.3	0.5	1.8	62.5%	—	0.0	75.0%	23.3%
7	F	Sr	6'9"	4-0	9.3	4.8	1.3	0.5	0.5	68.2%	42.9%	1.8	100.0%	20.1%
5	F	Jr	6'8"	4-0	6.5	1.8	3.5	0.5	0.3	60.0%	—	0.0	33.3%	14.1%
15	G	Jr	6'5"	3-0	8.0	2.3	1.7	0.0	0.7	50.0%	66.7%	1.0	50.0%	18.1%
9	F	Sr	6'9"	3-0	6.7	1.3	1.7	0.7	0.7	28.6%	—	0.0	0.0%	24.5%
10	G	So	6'1"	2-0	7.0	2.5	1.5	0.0	0.5	50.0%	50.0%	1.0	50.0%	20.6%
4	G	So	6'4"	2-0	6.0	3.5	0.5	0.0	1.0	42.9%	0.0%	0.5	50.0%	41.3%

Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.

Trends

Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this game

Morgan St

Against the spread

Season

1-0

Home

0-0

Road

1-0

Last 10

1-0

avg cover +9.5

Covered the last game

Over / under

Season

0-1

Home

0-0

Road

0-1

Last 10

0-1

avg vs total −8.0

Under in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 7	NiagaraAdjEM #351	A	W 73–67	+3.5	W+9.5	148.0	U140	95.4	87.5	76.5
Nov 4	Virginia Lynchburg Dragons	H	W 95–58	—	—	—	—	111.8	68.2	85.0
Nov 2	Cheyney (PA) Wolves	H	W 103–52	—	—	—	—	130.2	65.7	79.1
Mar 11	Delaware StAdjEM #331	N	L 70–75 OT	−3.0	L−8.0	143.0	O145	93.1	99.8	75.2
Mar 5	Coppin StAdjEM #358	H	W 70–66	−6.5	L−2.5	150.5	U136	101.7	95.9	68.8
Mar 2	Norfolk StAdjEM #328	H	W 90–84	+3.5	W+9.5	157.0	O174	119.4	111.4	75.4
Feb 28	HowardAdjEM #174	H	L 59–84	+9.5	L−15.5	158.0	U143	81.9	116.6	72.0
Feb 25	SC StateAdjEM #323	A	W 90–83	−1.5	W+5.5	154.5	O173	123.4	113.8	73.0
Feb 21	Delaware StAdjEM #331	H	W 82–68	−5.5	W+8.5	145.0	O150	111.8	92.7	73.4
Feb 16	NC CentralAdjEM #332	A	L 76–80	+5.5	W+1.5	148.0	O156	104.3	109.7	72.9

UMBC

Against the spread

Season

0-2

Home

0-0

Road

0-2

Last 10

0-2

avg cover −6.0

Missed the spread 2 straight

Over / under

Season

1-1

Home

0-0

Road

1-1

Last 10

1-1

avg vs total +11.0

Over in the last game

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Nov 9	McDaniel Green Terror	H	W 91–61	—	—	—	—	118.9	79.7	76.5
Nov 5	MaristAdjEM #179	A	L 80–88	+4.5	L−3.5	136.0	O168	101.3	111.4	79.0
Nov 2	George MasonAdjEM #83	A	L 54–82	+19.5	L−8.5	146.0	U136	75.1	114.1	71.9
Mar 17	#16HowardAdjEM #174	N	L 83–86	−1.0	L−4.0	142.5	O169	119.2	123.5	69.6
Mar 14	VermontAdjEM #168	H	W 74–59	−1.5	W+13.5	134.5	U133	115.5	92.1	64.0
Mar 10	UMass LowellAdjEM #233	H	W 91–69	−7.0	W+15.0	148.0	O160	134.1	101.7	67.8
Mar 7	New HampshireAdjEM #292	H	W 84–69	−13.0	W+2.0	142.0	O153	129.1	106.0	65.1
Mar 3	NJITAdjEM #360	A	W 91–52	−5.0	W+34.0	142.5	O143	129.9	74.2	70.1
Feb 28	UMass LowellAdjEM #233	A	W 84–60	−2.0	W+22.0	151.5	U144	128.4	91.7	65.4
Feb 26	BryantAdjEM #337	H	W 70–58	−10.0	W+2.0	138.0	U128	110.7	91.7	63.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Team comparison

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Morgan StUMBC

Efficiency

98.6

104.4

110.7

107.4

74.0

73.5

-16.6

3.1

Shooting

39.7%

42.3%

31.0%

42.0%

38.1%

28.6%

85.2%

83.3%

42.9%

29.3%

Ball control & glass

22.2%

20.5%

19.6%

16.6%

40.5%

25.0%

20.6%

36.6%

9.1%

9.3%

9.5%

3.7%

Style

33.3%

34.1%

35.6%

38.8%

26.0%

9.0%

33.3%

45.7%

39.7%

36.1%

Roster

3.48

2.35

6'5.3"

6'5"

23.2%

7.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Morgan St

Returning minutes: 23.2%Returning production: 23.1%

Lost

Rob Lawson 32.8 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Elijah Davis 30.2 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christian Meeks 28.6 mpg, 5.9 ppg · transferred to NC Central
Eugene Alvin 18.7 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Delaware
Walter Peggs Jr. 18.0 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Christian Oliver 12.4 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Trey Pettigrew new to D1 · 29.0 mpg, 16.0 ppg last season
Oliver Spence new to D1 · 27.0 mpg, 19.0 ppg last season
John Awoke from Wagner · 24.5 mpg, 6.7 ppg last season
Khali Horton from Coppin St · 19.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
Ibrahima Traore from Utah · 1.8 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
George Comer no D1 minutes last season

Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

UMBC

Returning minutes: 7.8%Returning production: 6.3%

Lost

DJ Armstrong Jr. 32.4 mpg, 13.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ace Valentine 31.7 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Robert Morris
Jah'Likai King 31.2 mpg, 13.6 ppg · transferred to Little Rock
Caden Diggs 22.1 mpg, 9.7 ppg · transferred to Troy
Josh Odunowo 20.9 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jose Roberto Tanchyn 18.6 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to San Diego

Added

Flash Burton from Rider · 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg last season
Austin Cross from Troy · 16.1 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
Evan Morton no D1 minutes last season
Leo Ferry no D1 minutes last season
Taesyn Slating no D1 minutes last season
JP Ndong no D1 minutes last season

Returns 8% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Line history

Market line, home spread or game total

Lines by book

Book	Spread (home) open → now	Total open → now	ML home	ML away
DraftKings	-6.5→-8.5-102	161.5→159.5o-110 u-110	-325	+260
FanDuel	-6.5→-7.5-120	161.5→159.5o-110 u-110	-360	+280
BetRivers	-6.5→-8.5-105	161.5→159.5o-114 u-109	-385	+285
Caesars	-6.5→-8-110	161.5→159.5o-110 u-110	-335	+260
Fanatics	-6.5→-7.5-115	161.5→159o-110 u-110	-320	+250
BetOnline	-6.5→-8-120	161→159.5o-113 u-107	—	—
Bovada	-6.5→-8-105	161.5→159.5o-110 u-110	-320	+260
theScore Bet	-6.5→-8.5-105	160.5→159.5o-105 u-115	-320	+260
Hard Rock	-6.5→-8.5-105	161.5→159.5o-110 u-110	-375	+275
Kalshi	-6.5-122	159.5o+104 u-108	-285	+270
Polymarket	-6.5-122	161.5o+122 u-127	-300	+285
Novig	-6.5→-7.5-111	159.5o+104 u-106	-285	+277

open = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Tue, Nov 11	2025-26	UMBC 81 – 79 Morgan St

More games on Thu, Nov 12

Kansas City vs George Mason · 3:00 PM ET
Bradley vs Coppin St · 6:00 PM ET
Tennessee Tech at Indiana · 6:30 PM ET
Mercyhurst at Penn State · 6:30 PM ET
Niagara at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
Canisius at Brown · 7:00 PM ET
MD Eastern at Rhode Island · 7:00 PM ET
Bakersfield at W Illinois · 7:00 PM ET
Southern Utah at High Point · 7:00 PM ET
Loyola MD at Towson · 7:00 PM ET
Mercer at West Virginia · 7:00 PM ET
Stetson at Howard · 7:00 PM ET
Monmouth at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
C Connecticut at Sacred Heart · 7:00 PM ET
W Michigan at Purdue FW · 7:00 PM ET
Richmond at S Illinois · 8:00 PM ET
Southern at Minnesota · 8:00 PM ET
LMU vs South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
Oklahoma St at Texas A&M · 8:00 PM ET
West Florida at Alabama A&M · 8:00 PM ET
New Mexico St at UTEP · 9:00 PM ET
Montana St at BYU · 9:00 PM ET
UC Riverside at San José St · 10:00 PM ET

← Wed, Nov 11 · Fri, Nov 13 → · Full season schedule

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.

Line	Our line	Close
Spread	UMBC −10.2	UMBC −8.0open UMBC −6.5
Total	150.8	159.5open 161.5