Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Ford Field (indoors)

Prediction: Lions 26, Buccaneers 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Detroit Lions a 61% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Buccaneers @ Lions, on one screen.

Buccaneers22.0win 39%
Market-implied score
Lions25.5win 61%
SpreadDET -3.5
Total47.5
Moneyline+148 / -180
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Buccaneers vs Lions prediction

The market makes Detroit Lions a 3.5-point favorite over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the game total at 47.5.

Moneylines sit at +148 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and -180 for Detroit Lions, a devigged 61% win probability for Detroit Lions; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 25.5 for Detroit Lions.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 215 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 79 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards; Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 259 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 91 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Ford Field, indoors, Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Buccaneers at Lions — lines as of Fri, 11/13 · 10:45 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -3.5
Total47.5 (open 47.75)
Moneyline (TB / DET)+148 / -180
DET implied win probability61%
Implied team totals (TB — DET)22.0 — 25.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Buccaneers and Lions this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-64-55-422.419.814
Detroit Lions6-23-4-15-327.823.67

Buccaneers' last 3 games: L 24-27 @ CHI · W 16-0 vs ATL · W 43-13 @ CAR.

Lions' last 3 games: W 19-9 @ MIA · W 19-15 vs MIN · W 20-17 vs GB.

Player projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 22.0 market-implied pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 215 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 79 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 61 rec yds
Detroit Lions · 25.5 market-implied pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 259 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 91 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 1 rush yds · 85 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Buccaneers @ Lions, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Buccaneers @ Lions matchup →

Played indoors, so weather is not a factor. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Buccaneers 2026 schedule

Lions 2026 schedule