Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High

Prediction: Broncos 25, Raiders 16 (market-implied). The market gives the Denver Broncos a 78% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Raiders @ Broncos, on one screen.

Raiders16.4win 22%
Market-implied score
Broncos24.9win 78%
SpreadDEN -8.5
Total41.25
Moneyline+340 / -440
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Raiders vs Broncos prediction

The market makes Denver Broncos an 8.5-point favorite over Las Vegas Raiders, with the game total at 41.25.

Moneylines sit at +340 for Las Vegas Raiders and -440 for Denver Broncos, a devigged 78% win probability for Denver Broncos; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.4 for Las Vegas Raiders and 24.9 for Denver Broncos.

The total has moved from 40.5 to 41.25.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Las Vegas Raiders — Fernando Mendoza (QB) at 226 passing yards and 10 rushing yards, Ashton Jeanty (RB) at 43 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards; Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 212 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Jonah Coleman (RB) at 50 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Broncos take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Raiders at Broncos — lines as of Fri, 11/13 · 10:45 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDEN -8.5 (open DEN -8.25)
Total41.25 (open 40.5)
Moneyline (LV / DEN)+340 / -440
DEN implied win probability78%
Implied team totals (LV — DEN)16.4 — 24.9

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Raiders and Broncos this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Las Vegas Raiders4-56-37-226.429.87
Denver Broncos7-27-24-522.020.714

Raiders' last 3 games: L 17-38 @ SF · W 38-33 @ NYJ · L 21-35 vs LA.

Broncos' last 3 games: W 26-21 @ CAR · W 28-24 vs KC · W 30-16 @ ARI.

Player projections

Las Vegas Raiders · 16.4 market-implied pts
Fernando Mendoza (QB) — 226 pass yds · 10 rush yds
Ashton Jeanty (RB) — 43 rush yds · 29 rec yds
Brock Bowers (TE) — 1 rush yds · 60 rec yds
Denver Broncos · 24.9 market-implied pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 212 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Jonah Coleman (RB) — 50 rush yds · 19 rec yds
J.K. Dobbins (RB) — 44 rush yds · 7 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Raiders @ Broncos, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Raiders @ Broncos matchup →

Kickoff forecast: 40°F, wind 4 mph from the E, 10% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Raiders 2026 schedule

Broncos 2026 schedule