New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 10 2026

Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · neutral site

Prediction: Lions 26, Patriots 24 (market-implied). The market gives the Detroit Lions a 58% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Patriots @ Lions, on one screen.

Patriots23.5win 42%
Market-implied score
Lions26.0win 58%
SpreadDET -2.5
Total49.5
Moneyline+129 / -150
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Patriots vs Lions prediction

The market makes Detroit Lions a 2.5-point favorite over New England Patriots, with the game total at 49.5.

Moneylines sit at +129 for New England Patriots and -150 for Detroit Lions, a devigged 58% win probability for Detroit Lions; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for New England Patriots and 26 for Detroit Lions.

The spread has moved from DET -1.5 to DET -2.5 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New England Patriots — Drake Maye (QB) at 268 passing yards and 29 rushing yards, A.J. Brown (WR) at 2 rushing yards and 65 receiving yards; Detroit Lions — Jared Goff (QB) at 245 passing yards and 4 rushing yards, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) at 98 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 9:30 AM ET, at FC Bayern Munich Stadium, a neutral site.

From the blog: NFL Week 10 Preview: Who's Hot, Who's Fading and Where I'm Leaning.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Patriots at Lions — lines as of Fri, 11/13 · 10:45 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadDET -2.5 (open DET -1.5)
Total49.5
Moneyline (NE / DET)+129 / -150
DET implied win probability58%
Implied team totals (NE — DET)23.5 — 26.0

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Patriots and Lions this season

Games before Week 10. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New England Patriots5-43-5-16-323.423.07
Detroit Lions6-23-4-15-327.823.67

Patriots' last 3 games: L 27-45 vs GB · W 24-19 @ MIA · L 24-30 @ CHI.

Lions' last 3 games: W 19-9 @ MIA · W 19-15 vs MIN · W 20-17 vs GB.

Injury report

New England Patriots

Out: TreVeyon Henderson (RB, illness), Ben Brown (C, knee), Carlton Davis III (CB, knee).

Detroit Lions

Out: Cade Mays (C, ankle), D.J. Reed (CB, hip), Kerby Joseph (S, knee).

Official injury report as of Nov 13.

Player projections

New England Patriots · 23.5 market-implied pts
Drake Maye (QB) — 268 pass yds · 29 rush yds
A.J. Brown (WR) — 2 rush yds · 65 rec yds
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) — 37 rush yds · 23 rec yds
Detroit Lions · 26.0 market-implied pts
Jared Goff (QB) — 245 pass yds · 4 rush yds
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB) — 98 rush yds · 31 rec yds
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) — 1 rush yds · 81 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Patriots @ Lions, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Patriots @ Lions matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 10 games

← Week 9 · Week 11 → · Full 2026 schedule

Patriots 2026 schedule

Lions 2026 schedule