Pennsylvania Quakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini basketball final score
Thu, Nov 5 · 8:30 PM ET · State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
Non-conferenceFS1State Farm Center, Champaign, IL
Penn
2025-26: 18-12 · 11-5 conf
Efficiency #162
@
3Illinois
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #1
Final
70112
Final score
Projected 65.7 – 96.8
PENN win 0%ILL win 100%
MarketClose
Spread
ILL −30.5
open ILL −28.0
Total
172.5
open 162.5
Our line
ILL −31.0
as of Thu, Nov 5 · 8:21 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Illinoisrated 22.5 above average
+22.5
Pennrated 3.8 below average
+3.8
Home court
+4.7
Our line
ILL −31.0
◂ Penn sideIllinois side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Illinois. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Illinois is the faster team (75.4, #67 of 365) and Penn the slower (68.7, #163). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
172.5
Market close · open 162.5
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.7#109
Penn
71.8#105
Illinois
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
ILL −31.0
Four factors +34.9 · not in these stats −3.9
From the four factors
Illinois has the ball+21.1
Penn has the ball−13.8
Illinois has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 66.9% #15 · PENN allows 52.1% #218+10.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 55.0% #5 · PENN allows 31.3% #220+7.3
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 9.3% #8 · PENN forces 17.3% #131 · ~9 turnovers+5.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 19.3% #261 · PENN allows 27.5% #28 · FT 56.3% #247−2.1
Penn has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.4% #223 · ILL allows 32.0% #10−9.8
✗Few second chancesOR% 30.0% #200 · ILL allows 6.5% #2−5.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.3% #89 · ILL forces 15.9% #186 · ~11 turnovers+2.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 33.9% #212 · ILL allows 18.0% #23 · FT 69.4% #285−1.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootPennoffense vs#3Illinoisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Penn shoots
36.7
5.6
22.4
35.4
Illinois allows
24.3
5.4
16.2
54.1
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.4%#331 | 55.6%#121 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 35.2%#286 | 50.0%#175 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 37.7%#196 | 33.3%#125 | 35.6% |
| Three | 38.3%#13 | 15.2%#13 | 32.5% |
#3Illinoisoffense vsPenndefense
Share of shots by zone
Illinois shoots
36.2
1.7
0.0
62.1
Penn allows
40.5
6.0
14.1
39.4
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 85.7%#11 | 61.3%#278 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 100.0%#1 | 46.0%#320 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | — | 38.0%#160 | 35.6% |
| Three | 37.3%#89 | 32.2%#73 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul linePenn
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#63 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#200
Def reb %
68.7%
#220
Turnover %
15.3%
#89
Forced TO %
17.3%
#131
FT rate
33.9%
#212
FT allowed
27.5%
#28
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+1.0
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed+2.0
#3Illinois
+21.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#16 of 365
Off reb %
55.0%
#5
Def reb %
93.5%
#2
Turnover %
9.3%
#8
Forced TO %
15.9%
#186
FT rate
19.3%
#261
FT allowed
18.0%
#23
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+7.8
Defensive rebounding+8.4
Ball security+6.6
Forcing turnovers−1.9
Foul shots drawn−4.7
Foul shots allowed+5.0
Illinois has more extra scoring chances per game: +21.1 (#16 of 365) to Penn’s +2.7 (#63).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Penn2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 35.0 | 18.3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 45.3% | 43.5% | 7.7 | 53.8% | 32.6% | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 3-3 | 33.7 | 13.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 48.8% | 50.0% | 6.0 | 66.7% | 22.9% | |
| 30 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-0 | 27.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 61.8% | 37.5% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 13.4% | |
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-3 | 26.0 | 14.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 41.4% | 23.1% | 4.3 | 72.2% | 32.2% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 24.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 71.4% | 23.1% | |
| 25 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 14.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 40.0% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 10.6% | |
| 13 | F | So | 6'9" | 3-0 | 11.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 16.7% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 10.3% | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 75.0% | 16.8% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 57.1% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 23.4% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.8% | 20.0% | 5.0 | 100.0% | 35.8% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 25.9% | |
| 35 | G | Sr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 13.9% | |
| 21 | G | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.6% | |
| 1 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 92.9% | |
| 5 | G | Fr | 6'0" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 46.4% | |
| 23 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gamePenn
Against the spread
Season
20-9
Home
8-5
Road
10-3
Last 10
8-2
avg cover +5.6
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
8-21
Home
1-12
Road
5-8
Last 10
2-8
avg vs total −3.2
Over 2 straightOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19 | #3Illinois | N | L 70–105 | +25.5 | L−9.5 | 151.0 | O175 | 103.0 | 154.5 | 68.0 |
| Mar 15 | Yale | N | W 88–84 OT | +9.5 | W+13.5 | 144.0 | O172 | 121.7 | 116.1 | 72.3 |
| Mar 14 | Harvard | N | W 62–60 OT | +3.5 | W+5.5 | 139.0 | U122 | 88.7 | 85.9 | 69.9 |
| Mar 6 | Brown | A | W 82–61 | +1.0 | W+22.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 114.2 | 84.9 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Harvard | H | W 64–61 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 139.5 | U125 | 89.5 | 85.3 | 71.5 |
| Feb 27 | Dartmouth | H | W 80–71 | −6.5 | W+2.5 | 153.5 | U151 | 115.6 | 102.6 | 69.2 |
| Feb 21 | Yale | A | L 70–74 | +8.5 | W+4.5 | 149.5 | U144 | 105.1 | 111.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Cornell | H | W 82–76 | +3.0 | W+9.0 | 170.0 | U158 | 107.6 | 99.7 | 76.2 |
| Feb 13 | Columbia | H | W 76–67 | −2.0 | W+7.0 | 148.0 | U143 | 108.0 | 95.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | Princeton | H | W 61–60 | −3.5 | L−2.5 | 145.0 | U121 | 104.5 | 102.8 | 58.4 |
#3Illinois
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +36.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +9.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | FDU | H | W 120–45 | −39.0 | W+36.0 | 156.0 | O165 | 159.1 | 59.7 | 75.4 |
| Apr 4 | #2UConn | N | L 62–71 | −1.5 | L−10.5 | 139.0 | U133 | 97.6 | 111.8 | 63.5 |
| Mar 28 | #9Iowa | N | W 71–59 | −7.0 | W+5.0 | 138.5 | U130 | 129.5 | 107.6 | 54.8 |
| Mar 26 | #2Houston | N | W 65–55 | +2.5 | W+12.5 | 139.5 | U120 | 111.2 | 94.1 | 58.5 |
| Mar 21 | #11VCU | N | W 76–55 | −12.0 | W+9.0 | 150.5 | U131 | 115.2 | 83.4 | 66.0 |
| Mar 19 | #14Penn | N | W 105–70 | −25.5 | W+9.5 | 151.0 | O175 | 154.5 | 103.0 | 68.0 |
| Mar 13 | #23Wisconsin | N | L 88–91 OT | −8.0 | L−11.0 | 157.0 | O179 | 117.0 | 121.0 | 75.2 |
| Mar 8 | Maryland | A | W 78–72 | −14.0 | L−8.0 | 145.0 | O150 | 127.4 | 117.6 | 61.2 |
| Mar 3 | Oregon | H | W 80–54 | −17.5 | W+8.5 | 147.0 | U134 | 116.9 | 78.9 | 68.5 |
| Feb 27 | #3Michigan | H | L 70–84 | +2.0 | L−12.0 | 159.5 | U154 | 105.4 | 126.5 | 66.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homePenn#3Illinois
Efficiency
105.1
123.3
104.4
94.5
71.7
71.8
—
-20.0
Shooting
50.4%
66.9%
46.5%
84.4%
38.3%
37.3%
69.4%
56.3%
33.9%
19.3%
Ball control & glass
15.3%
9.3%
17.3%
15.9%
30.0%
55.0%
31.3%
6.5%
8.5%
5.3%
9.3%
12.5%
Style
35.4%
61.4%
39.7%
45.0%
11.0%
18.3%
52.3%
65.2%
31.8%
56.0%
Roster
3.34
2.20
6'6.2"
6'7.1"
77.6%
42.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPenn
Returning minutes: 77.6%Returning production: 77.8%
Lost
- Ethan Roberts 23.4 mpg, 13.0 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Cam Thrower 15.3 mpg, 5.4 ppg · transferred to Elon
- Dylan Williams 2.0 mpg, 0.5 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
- Alex Massung 1.8 mpg, 0.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Michelangelo Oberti 1.8 mpg, 0.7 ppg · transferred to Boston U
- Johnnie Walter 0.9 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Dorian Glogovac new to D1 · 25.0 mpg, 20.0 ppg last season
- Sir Mohammed from Notre Dame · 16.4 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
- Ryan Altman no D1 minutes last season
- Chase Geremia no D1 minutes last season
- Finley Billy no D1 minutes last season
- Isaiah Carroll no D1 minutes last season
Returns 78% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#3Illinois
Returning minutes: 57.3%Returning production: 58.1%
Lost
- Keaton Wagler 34.0 mpg, 17.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kylan Boswell 24.4 mpg, 9.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Ben Humrichous 22.5 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Mihailo Petrovic 3.0 mpg, 0.8 ppg · transferred to Seton Hall
- Brandon Lee 2.1 mpg, 0.8 ppg · transferred to James Madison
- AJ Redd 0.7 mpg, 0.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Stefan Vaaks from Providence · 29.6 mpg, 14.9 ppg last season
- Quentin McCoy no D1 minutes last season
- Lincoln Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Landon Davis no D1 minutes last season
- Quentin Coleman no D1 minutes last season
- Ethan Brown no D1 minutes last season
Returns 57% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -29.5→-30.5-102 | 165.5→172.5o-110 u-110 | — | +4000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5→-29.5-118 | 162.5→172.5o-115 u-105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -29.5→-30.5-105 | 165.5→172.5o-110 u-110 | — | +3300 |
| BetRivers | -29.5→-30.5-104 | 165.5→172.5o-114 u-109 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -28→-30-115 | 162.5→172.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| BetOnline | -28.5→-30-106 | 163.5→172o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30.5→-30-115 | 164.5→172.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -30.5+100 | 164.5→172.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock | -29.5-120 | 165.5→172.5o-110 u-110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 173.5o+113 u-117 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -30.5+100 | 173.5→172.5o-104 u+100 | — | — |
| Novig | -28.5→— | 163.5→172.5o-104 u+102 | — | +4900 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Thu, Mar 19 | 2025-26 | Penn 70 – 105 Illinois(N) |
More games on Thu, Nov 5
- McNeese at North Texas · 5:00 PM ET
- Wake Forest at Vanderbilt · 6:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Indiana · 6:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Penn State · 6:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Seton Hall · 6:30 PM ET
- Buffalo at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- C Connecticut at Syracuse · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Saint Peter's · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at Incarnate Word · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercyhurst at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Navy · 7:00 PM ET
- UAlbany at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
- UMass Lowell at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Rider · 7:00 PM ET
- Maine at Sacred Heart · 7:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Cincinnati · 7:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Hofstra at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Alcorn St · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Mississippi St · 7:30 PM ET
- Stonehill at Fordham · 7:30 PM ET
- Jackson St at Tulane · 7:30 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Florida · 8:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Creighton · 8:00 PM ET
- Coastal at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- VMI at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Michigan St · 8:00 PM ET
- Jax State at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- South Florida at DePaul · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Texas Tech · 9:00 PM ET
- Towson at Utah · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Arizona · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.