Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Vanderbilt Commodores basketball final score
Thu, Nov 5 · 6:00 PM ET · Memorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN
Non-conferenceESPN2Memorial Gymnasium (TN), Nashville, TN
Wake Forest
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #85
@
24Vanderbilt
1-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #6
Final
5174
Final score
Projected 69.7 – 83.3
WAKE win 12%VAN win 88%
MarketClose
Spread
VAN −18.0
open VAN −15.0
Total
155.0
open 153.0
Our line
VAN −13.6
as of Thu, Nov 5 · 5:51 PM ET
Our play
How our line is built
each step, from an even game to our lineSpread
Even game
0.0
Vanderbiltrated 20.7 above average
+20.7
Wake Forestrated 11.8 above average
−11.8
Home court
+4.7
Our line
VAN −13.6
◂ Wake Forest sideVanderbilt side ▸
The spread is seen from the home side: a plus moves it toward Vanderbilt. Our total joins once both teams have played 3 games.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Wake Forest is the faster team (70.8, #166 of 365) and Vanderbilt the slower (69.5, #190). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.8
per team, 40 min
Market total
155.0
Market close · open 153.0
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.0#95
Wake Forest
71.5#120
Vanderbilt
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupOur line
VAN −13.6
Four factors +17.1 · not in these stats −3.5
From the four factors
Vanderbilt has the ball+6.9
Wake Forest has the ball−10.1
Vanderbilt has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 66.4% #17 · WAKE allows 45.0% #86+6.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 44.0% #31 · WAKE allows 36.8% #216+5.1
✗Coughs it upTO% 20.1% #189 · WAKE forces 25.4% #35 · ~17 turnovers−5.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 45.5% #73 · WAKE allows 20.0% #31 · FT 80.0% #40+0.2
Wake Forest has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 15.5% #96 · VAN forces 33.1% #6 · ~19 turnovers−7.1
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.6% #160 · VAN allows 18.2% #16−3.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 58.8% #62 · VAN allows 42.4% #62+0.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 43.9% #84 · VAN allows 28.3% #87 · FT 64.0% #184−0.4
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootWake Forestoffense vs#24Vanderbiltdefense
Share of shots by zone
Wake Forest shoots
50.0
4.0
8.0
38.0
Vanderbilt allows
25.9
0.0
29.6
44.4
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.0%#72 | 57.1%#132 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#59 | — | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 50.0%#46 | 25.0%#87 | 35.6% |
| Three | 30.4%#158 | 23.8%#60 | 32.5% |
#24Vanderbiltoffense vsWake Forestdefense
Share of shots by zone
Vanderbilt shoots
57.9
2.6
5.3
34.2
Wake Forest allows
22.9
2.1
29.2
45.8
D-I average
38.2
7.6
13.0
41.1
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 72.7%#47 | 45.5%#54 | 58.7% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 100.0%#1 | 0.0%#1 | 36.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#237 | 50.0%#198 | 35.6% |
| Three | 36.8%#92 | 34.8%#172 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineWake Forest
+10.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#55 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#160
Def reb %
63.2%
#216
Turnover %
15.5%
#96
Forced TO %
25.4%
#35
FT rate
43.9%
#84
FT allowed
20.0%
#31
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.7
Defensive rebounding−1.8
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers+4.9
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed+4.5
#24Vanderbilt
+22.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#12 of 365
Off reb %
44.0%
#31
Def reb %
81.8%
#16
Turnover %
20.1%
#189
Forced TO %
33.1%
#6
FT rate
45.5%
#73
FT allowed
28.3%
#87
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+4.1
Defensive rebounding+4.5
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+10.3
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed+2.3
Vanderbilt has more extra scoring chances per game: +22.3 (#12 of 365) to Wake Forest’s +10.8 (#55).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Wake Forest2026-27 numbers through Tue, Nov 10
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | G | So | 6'2" | 3-3 | 33.3 | 16.3 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 53.2% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 76.2% | 28.4% | |
| 4 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 3-3 | 30.7 | 14.7 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 52.8% | 50.0% | 1.3 | 50.0% | 28.9% | |
| 7 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-2 | 24.0 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 61.1% | 44.4% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 20.2% | |
| 11 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 3-1 | 24.0 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 45.8% | 30.8% | 4.3 | 55.6% | 24.4% | |
| 1 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 23.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 59.4% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 16.3% | |
| 17 | F | Sr | 6'11" | 3-2 | 21.0 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 29.5% | 17.6% | 5.7 | 0.0% | 23.7% | |
| 0 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 17.3 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 69.4% | 42.9% | 2.3 | 33.3% | 25.2% | |
| 77 | C | Jr | 7'0" | 3-1 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 25.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.4% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 10.3% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 14.1% | |
| 10 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-0 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.4% | |
| 9 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | 18.9% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten games, entering this gameWake Forest
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −12.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −0.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | MD Eastern | H | W 83–62 | −33.0 | L−12.0 | 145.5 | U145 | 117.3 | 87.6 | 70.8 |
| Mar 22 | Illinois St | H | L 75–78 | −8.0 | L−11.0 | 152.5 | O153 | 108.0 | 112.3 | 69.5 |
| Mar 18 | Navy | H | W 82–72 | −10.0 | P0.0 | 147.5 | O154 | 124.1 | 109.0 | 66.1 |
| Mar 11 | Clemson | N | L 62–71 | +5.5 | L−3.5 | 142.0 | U133 | 103.9 | 119.0 | 59.6 |
| Mar 10 | Virginia Tech | N | W 95–89 OT | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 151.5 | O184 | 126.6 | 118.6 | 75.0 |
| Mar 7 | California | H | W 80–73 | −6.0 | W+1.0 | 154.0 | U153 | 109.6 | 100.1 | 73.0 |
| Mar 3 | #13Virginia | A | L 70–75 | +14.0 | W+9.0 | 149.5 | U145 | 102.9 | 110.3 | 68.0 |
| Feb 28 | Syracuse | H | W 88–83 | −4.0 | W+1.0 | 152.0 | O171 | 135.2 | 127.5 | 65.1 |
| Feb 25 | Boston College | A | L 67–68 | −4.0 | L−5.0 | 144.5 | U135 | 105.3 | 106.9 | 63.6 |
| Feb 21 | Virginia Tech | A | L 63–82 | +4.0 | L−15.0 | 148.5 | U145 | 104.0 | 135.3 | 60.6 |
#24Vanderbilt
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +10.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −19.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Bellarmine | H | W 93–47 | −36.0 | W+10.0 | 159.5 | U140 | 133.8 | 67.6 | 69.5 |
| Mar 21 | #4Nebraska | N | L 72–74 | −2.0 | L−4.0 | 147.5 | U146 | 112.7 | 115.8 | 63.9 |
| Mar 19 | #12McNeese | N | W 78–68 | −12.0 | L−2.0 | 148.0 | U146 | 122.1 | 106.4 | 63.9 |
| Mar 15 | #17Arkansas | N | L 75–86 | −2.0 | L−13.0 | 164.5 | U161 | 107.0 | 122.6 | 70.1 |
| Mar 14 | #4Florida | N | W 91–74 | +7.0 | W+24.0 | 160.0 | O165 | 142.4 | 115.8 | 63.9 |
| Mar 13 | #25Tennessee | N | W 75–68 | +2.0 | W+9.0 | 147.0 | U143 | 120.3 | 109.1 | 62.4 |
| Mar 7 | #23Tennessee | A | W 86–82 | +3.0 | W+7.0 | 145.5 | O168 | 117.7 | 112.2 | 73.1 |
| Mar 3 | Ole Miss | A | W 89–86 OT | −7.0 | L−4.0 | 155.5 | O175 | 115.6 | 111.7 | 77.0 |
| Feb 28 | Kentucky | A | L 77–91 | +1.0 | L−13.0 | 157.5 | O168 | 113.2 | 133.7 | 68.0 |
| Feb 25 | Georgia | H | W 88–80 | −7.5 | W+0.5 | 163.0 | O168 | 133.2 | 121.1 | 66.1 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeWake Forest#24Vanderbilt
Efficiency
110.9
117.2
103.8
95.8
72.0
71.5
-11.8
-10.9
Shooting
58.8%
66.4%
67.6%
72.2%
30.4%
36.8%
64.0%
80.0%
43.9%
45.5%
Ball control & glass
15.5%
20.1%
25.4%
33.1%
29.6%
44.0%
36.8%
18.2%
8.5%
7.2%
11.8%
2.8%
Style
40.4%
34.5%
53.0%
55.9%
30.1%
22.6%
50.0%
57.6%
37.8%
41.0%
Roster
2.26
2.35
6'6.5"
6'5.9"
4.3%
25.4%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputWake Forest
Returning minutes: 4.5%Returning production: 2.9%
Lost
- Juke Harris 35.2 mpg, 21.4 ppg · transferred to Tennessee
- Tre'Von Spillers 29.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Myles Colvin 27.2 mpg, 11.6 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Omaha Biliew 20.2 mpg, 6.3 ppg · transferred to Grand Canyon
- Cooper Schwieger 19.7 mpg, 4.9 ppg · transferred to Florida St
- Mekhi Mason 19.5 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to San José St
Added
- Kevair Kennedy from Merrimack · 36.8 mpg, 18.4 ppg last season
- Justin Ray from Monmouth · 28.4 mpg, 11.3 ppg last season
- Ring Nyeri from N Colorado · 25.8 mpg, 8.5 ppg last season
- Xander Pintelon from FAU · 18.2 mpg, 6.2 ppg last season
- Jamari McDowell from Kansas · 17.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- Antonio Dorn from Virginia Tech · 6.3 mpg, 1.9 ppg last season
Returns 4% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
#24Vanderbilt
Returning minutes: 25.4%Returning production: 27.8%
Lost
- Tyler Nickel 30.5 mpg, 13.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- AK Okereke 26.2 mpg, 9.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Devin McGlockton 25.3 mpg, 9.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Duke Miles 23.0 mpg, 12.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Washington 20.6 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Tennessee
- Tyler Harris 10.6 mpg, 4.6 ppg · transferred to UNLV
Added
- Ace Glass from Washington St · 28.9 mpg, 16.4 ppg last season
- Sebastian Williams-Adams from Auburn · 27.4 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
- Bangot Dak from Colorado · 24.9 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Berke Buyuktuncel from Nebraska · 22.9 mpg, 6.2 ppg last season
- T.O. Barrett from Missouri · 22.8 mpg, 8.6 ppg last season
- Ant Brown Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Line history
Market line, home spread or game totalLines by book
| Book | Spread (home) open → now | Total open → now | ML home | ML away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -17.5-112 | 155.5o-112 u-108 | -2400 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -16.5→-17.5-120 | 153.5→155.5o-115 u-105 | -4000 | +1280 |
| BetMGM | -17.5-115 | 154.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -2500 | +1100 |
| BetRivers | -17.5→-18.5-110 | 154.5→155.5o-112 u-112 | — | +1300 |
| Caesars | -17.5→-18-110 | 155→155.5o-110 u-110 | -2800 | +1250 |
| Fanatics | -16→-17.5-115 | 153.5→156.5o-107 u-110 | -2500 | +1300 |
| BetOnline | -16→-18-118 | 154.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -2500 | +1156 |
| Bovada | -17.5→-18-105 | 154.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -2200 | +1000 |
| theScore Bet | -16.5→-17.5-110 | 154.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | -4000 | +1300 |
| Hard Rock | -17.5→-18.5-110 | 154.5→155.5o-110 u-110 | — | +1300 |
| Kalshi | -17.5→-18.5+108 | 153.5→156.5o+100 u-104 | -1567 | +1329 |
| Polymarket | -18.5+108 | 155.5o-108 u+104 | -1567 | +1329 |
| Novig | -16.5→-17.5-111 | 153.5→156.5o-102 u+100 | -1567 | +1438 |
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
BetRivers
Caesars
Fanatics
BetOnline
Bovada
theScore Bet
Hard Rock
Kalshi
Polymarket
Novigopen = first-sighted line for this event · now = latest capture
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sun, Dec 21 | 2025-26 | Vanderbilt 98 – 67 Wake Forest |
More games on Thu, Nov 5
- McNeese at North Texas · 5:00 PM ET
- Bellarmine at Indiana · 6:00 PM ET
- Chattanooga at Penn State · 6:00 PM ET
- Long Island at Seton Hall · 6:30 PM ET
- Buffalo at Pitt · 7:00 PM ET
- C Connecticut at Syracuse · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Saint Peter's · 7:00 PM ET
- Chicago St at Incarnate Word · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercyhurst at Notre Dame · 7:00 PM ET
- Mercer at Virginia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Fairfield · 7:00 PM ET
- NJIT at Iona · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Navy · 7:00 PM ET
- UAlbany at Manhattan · 7:00 PM ET
- UMass Lowell at Merrimack · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Quinnipiac · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Rider · 7:00 PM ET
- Maine at Sacred Heart · 7:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Cincinnati · 7:00 PM ET
- Cornell at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Hofstra at Princeton · 7:00 PM ET
- Howard at Alcorn St · 7:00 PM ET
- Georgia St at Charlotte · 7:00 PM ET
- N'Western St at Mississippi St · 7:30 PM ET
- Stonehill at Fordham · 7:30 PM ET
- Jackson St at Tulane · 7:30 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Florida · 8:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Texas · 8:00 PM ET
- Le Moyne at Creighton · 8:00 PM ET
- Coastal at Duke · 8:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Loyola Chicago · 8:00 PM ET
- VMI at SMU · 8:00 PM ET
- N Illinois at Tulsa · 8:00 PM ET
- East Texas A&M at Rice · 8:00 PM ET
- Toledo at Michigan St · 8:00 PM ET
- Jax State at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- South Florida at DePaul · 8:30 PM ET
- Penn at Illinois · 8:30 PM ET
- Bethune at Texas Tech · 9:00 PM ET
- Towson at Utah · 9:00 PM ET
- Cal Poly at Arizona · 10:30 PM ET
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.