Every NFL prime-time game, open to everyone. This week: Thu Commanders @ Giants · Sun Steelers @ Bengals · Mon Chargers @ Ravens.
Bengals by 3.5 in a 49.5-point game, which implies PIT 23.0 – CIN 26.5.
| Steelers | Prop | Proj | Line | Δ | Best over | Best under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB1 | 219 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.7 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 5 | — | — | — | — | ||
RB1 | 68 | — | — | — | — | |
| 21 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 46% | — | — | — | — | ||
WR1 | 56 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.3 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 25% | — | — | — | — | ||
WR2 | 53 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.2 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 32% | — | — | — | — | ||
TE1 | 36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.5 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 24% | — | — | — | — |
| Bengals | Prop | Proj | Line | Δ | Best over | Best under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QB1 | 285 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.1 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 10 | — | — | — | — | ||
RB1 | 48 | — | — | — | — | |
| 30 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 49% | — | — | — | — | ||
WR1 | 96 | — | — | — | — | |
| 7.3 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 54% | — | — | — | — | ||
WR2 | 68 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.6 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 45% | — | — | — | — | ||
TE1 | 30 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.6 | — | — | — | — | ||
| 24% | — | — | — | — |
Steelers’ passing offense has been below average; Bengals’ pass defense has been about average.
314 PIT dropbacks · 313 faced by the CIN defense
Bengals’ passing offense has been top-5; Steelers’ pass defense has been above average.
321 CIN dropbacks · 318 faced by the PIT defense
Steelers’ quarterback has been sacked more often than most; Bengals’ quarterback has been sacked less often than most; Steelers’ pass rush has been top-5 at getting sacks.
314 PIT dropbacks · 321 CIN dropbacks
The Steelers have run about a league-average number of plays; the Bengals have run fewer plays than most teams; the Bengals have passed more on early downs than the Steelers.
492 PIT plays, 483 CIN plays · early-down pass rate from 180 and 187 plays in neutral game situations (league 50.7%)
Season stats describe the matchup; the line already reflects them. # is the rank among 32 teams; early in the season ranks swing, so the tier matters more than the exact rank.
Each score is opponent-adjusted, in standard deviations: 0 is league average, + is good for that unit. Net is offense minus defense. The week’s biggest edges this season held in 37 of 57 run, 39 of 56 pass, 33 of 56 protection games. The line already reflects these numbers.
Also listed (under 50% of snaps or not playing): Derrick Harmon DT (PIT) limited, 37% of snaps · B.J. Hill DT (CIN) limited, 44% of snaps
| PIT | Chance | Fair | CIN | Chance | Fair | Push |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 24.7% | +305 | +3.5 | 75.3% | -305 | — |
| PK | 36.4% | +174 | PK | 63.6% | -174 | 0.3% |
| +0.5 | 36.6% | +173 | -0.5 | 63.4% | -173 | — |
| +2 | 40.0% | +150 | -2 | 60.0% | -150 | 2.4% |
| +3.5 | 50.0% | +100 | -3.5 | 50.0% | -100 | — |
| +5 | 54.1% | -118 | -5 | 45.9% | +118 | 2.2% |
| +6.5 | 58.8% | -143 | -6.5 | 41.2% | +143 | — |
| +7 | 62.4% | -166 | -7 | 37.6% | +166 | 5.7% |
| +10.5 | 71.8% | -255 | -10.5 | 28.2% | +255 | — |
| Total | Over | Fair | Under | Fair | Push |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.5 | 70.6% | -240 | 29.4% | +240 | — |
| 46 | 60.2% | -151 | 39.8% | +151 | 2.1% |
| 49.5 | 50.0% | -100 | 50.0% | +100 | — |
| 53 | 39.1% | +155 | 60.9% | -155 | 1.8% |
| 56.5 | 31.2% | +221 | 68.8% | -221 | — |
